| This is a rout right now.
That's Angelides-like numbers for Barack. Maybe you CAN'T run a ground campaign with precinct captains in California. Maybe it is too big.
Now, there's a long way to go, and I do expect it to tighten, but not a lot. Clinton SMOKED Obama in the hard-to-reach areas of SoCal and the Central Valley.
In some key districts, however, we're seeing interesting stuff. CA-01 is 9 points, CA-04 is 6, and CA-05 is 4. All are trending to Obama late, and all are 5-delelgate districts. 2 out of 3 up there would be big. CA-30 and CA-36, the Westside of LA and the South Bay, essentially, are 13 point leads for Clinton right now but it's very early and there are a lot of votes to go, and they too are trending Obama. San Diego is starting to trend that way too but he's further behind.
Obama might "get a break on change" and bring this within 15-20 delegates, yet.
Oh, and on the props, the gaming compacts will pass, community college funding will lose, and Prop.93 is getting close to being a loss. It's 47.3%-52.7% with over half the votes in.
...Edwards is playing the Nader role in four districts right now, where his total is more than the margin of victory: CA-01, CA-04, CA-05, and CA-14. Now, this isn't a perfect analogy, since Edwards voters don't all go to Obama. But it's certainly interesting.
CA-30 and CA-36 continue to tighten. CA-30 will be a wash (3-3), but it's something of a bellweather.
UPDATE: 63.9% reporting:
Still 73% of CA-09 precincts in Alameda county outstanding. This will tighten further. I think Obama will come up just short in CA-01 and CA-04, however.
UPDATE FINAL: I'm friggin' tired.
A couple developments: Obama just took the lead in CA-14. And he's made it extremely close in CA-53, a 5-delegate district. Also, the numbers are closing just enough in a few of those big spreads to mask the drubbing and maybe get to a 2-2 split. Only 4 of those are lost causes right now.
We'll see where this leads, but people might wake up tomorrow morning and see how big a victory this was for Hillary Clinton, and the narrative might change.
Prop. 93 lost. Tomorrow is a whole new ballgame for the California Legislature, but that's for another time.
UPDATE: OK, this is REALLY it this time. Hillary Clinton will score between a 30-50 delegate victory depending on outlying districts, and it'll probably move closer to Obama's end because he's gaining in all the late results.
CA-01 is really fun; about 100 votes separate the two. CA-05, CA-50 and CA-53 are the other keys; Obama needs to win those. CA-09, in Alameda County, has barely come in at all - that could have an effect on the overall numbers, and if Obama starts running up the score there he could get a 4-2 split. In a bunch of other races, he needs to stay close enough to keep it 2-2 (CA-16, CA-18, CA-41, CA-43, CA-45).