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by: David Dayen

Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 00:37:49 AM PST


This is a rout right now.

51.4% reporting
Clinton 53.6%
Obama 38.3%
Edwards 6.3%

That's Angelides-like numbers for Barack.  Maybe you CAN'T run a ground campaign with precinct captains in California.  Maybe it is too big.

Now, there's a long way to go, and I do expect it to tighten, but not a lot.  Clinton SMOKED Obama in the hard-to-reach areas of SoCal and the Central Valley.

In some key districts, however, we're seeing interesting stuff.  CA-01 is 9 points, CA-04 is 6, and CA-05 is 4.  All are trending to Obama late, and all are 5-delelgate districts.  2 out of 3 up there would be big.  CA-30 and CA-36, the Westside of LA and the South Bay, essentially, are 13 point leads for Clinton right now but it's very early and there are a lot of votes to go, and they too are trending Obama.  San Diego is starting to trend that way too but he's further behind.

Obama might "get a break on change" and bring this within 15-20 delegates, yet.

Oh, and on the props, the gaming compacts will pass, community college funding will lose, and Prop.93 is getting close to being a loss.  It's 47.3%-52.7% with over half the votes in.

...Edwards is playing the Nader role in four districts right now, where his total is more than the margin of victory: CA-01, CA-04, CA-05, and CA-14.  Now, this isn't a perfect analogy, since Edwards voters don't all go to Obama.  But it's certainly interesting.

CA-30 and CA-36 continue to tighten.  CA-30 will be a wash (3-3), but it's something of a bellweather.

UPDATE: 63.9% reporting:
Clinton 53.2%
Obama 39.6%
Edwards 5.6%

Still 73% of CA-09 precincts in Alameda county outstanding.  This will tighten further.  I think Obama will come up just short in CA-01 and CA-04, however.

UPDATE FINAL: I'm friggin' tired.
69.4% reporting
Clinton 53.0%
Obama 40.1%
Edwards 5.3%

A couple developments: Obama just took the lead in CA-14.  And he's made it extremely close in CA-53, a 5-delegate district.  Also, the numbers are closing just enough in a few of those big spreads to mask the drubbing and maybe get to a 2-2 split.  Only 4 of those are lost causes right now.

We'll see where this leads, but people might wake up tomorrow morning and see how big a victory this was for Hillary Clinton, and the narrative might change.

Prop. 93 lost.  Tomorrow is a whole new ballgame for the California Legislature, but that's for another time.

UPDATE: OK, this is REALLY it this time.  Hillary Clinton will score between a 30-50 delegate victory depending on outlying districts, and it'll probably move closer to Obama's end because he's gaining in all the late results.

CA-01 is really fun; about 100 votes separate the two.  CA-05, CA-50 and CA-53 are the other keys; Obama needs to win those.  CA-09, in Alameda County, has barely come in at all - that could have an effect on the overall numbers, and if Obama starts running up the score there he could get a 4-2 split.  In a bunch of other races, he needs to stay close enough to keep it 2-2 (CA-16, CA-18, CA-41, CA-43, CA-45).

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CD-04 and CD-01 (0.00 / 0)
CD-04: http://vote.sos.ca.gov/Returns...
CD-01: http://vote.sos.ca.gov/Returns...

Looking at the county returns that remain outstanding ... I don't see how Obama can make up the margin in CD-04. Looks lost to me, which I think speaks pretty badly of Obama's ground game in California since that really should have been his district. When all is counted I suspect one may be able to argue that the Edwards voters threw the district to Clinton.

The CD-01 race depends on Humboldt (zero reported) and the remaining votes in Yolo. But both would have to go very strongly to Obama to make up ground and I don't think that will happen.

It's harder to gauge the returns from CD-05. But right now I'm thinking it's quite possible that Obama loses all three of them - CDs 01, 04 and 05. Which would be, again, pretty damning for Obama's ground game (or evidence that in CA he never truly had one).

Still, I'm really stunned that he's doing so poorly in those districts. I didn't anticipate that at all.

As the returns come in it looks worse and worse for Obama in California. Angelides-like numbers is exactly right. And it's too bad because it looks like there were a lot of opportunities lost for Obama here in California.


Indeed (0.00 / 0)
his increases are all coming out of Edwards' hide statewide.

Eric Garcetti mentioned to me Obama had 5,000 precinct captains.  But there are 23,000 precincts.  I thought they'd do a lot better in Ca-01 and Ca-04, and I thought they'd battle to a badly beaten draw in those Latino districts because of delegate allocation.  Not so.

This could be a 50-point swing here.  A sound defeat.  And I think Clinton has to be extremely buoyed by that.


[ Parent ]
I'll wait for the final tally ... (0.00 / 0)
... but the more returns comes in, the more I think the California result might prove a PR and momentum disaster for Obama. Maybe even a delegate disaster.

It really looks like Clinton trounced him and she might come out with significantly more delegates than was anticipated -- this might not be anywhere near an even split.

The Clinton campaign has needed an electoral cudgel to beat over Obama's head, and with the California result it sure looks like they might have found that cudgel.

I am indeed a very discouraged Obama supporter.


[ Parent ]
He may be able to mask it (0.00 / 0)
the latest returns are breaking well for him in certain districts.  As long as he makes it a 10-point race and keeps the delegate count to around 30, I don't think many people will look at the internals.

But you are right, this could be bad.


[ Parent ]
The 1st district is down to a 159 vote margin (0.00 / 0)
And everyone but Yolo County has reported. Given the precincts that are still out, I'll bet that the UCD on-campus votes tip the ball into the net for Obama.

[ Parent ]
wow, obama pulled it off (0.00 / 0)
he just won yolo by 688 votes, which means a 529 vote margin in the district. crazy!

[ Parent ]
indeed (0.00 / 0)
I wasn't up all night (east coast...) but from what I could see, once they got past the absentees, Lake and Napa, CA-01 started to go decisively to Obama.  

I know that there were a lot of people very active for Obama all around NorCal, but they were clustered in Davis and the Eureka-Arcata area, so go figure.  


[ Parent ]
The AP is calling Prop 93 a loss (0.00 / 0)
Just in.

Zogby was wrong and SUSA was right (0.00 / 0)
On 2/4 Zogby came out 46% 40% for Obama

Also on 2/4 SUSA predicted 53% Clinton over 41% Obama.

I was wrong too.  I thought Obama had a chance to win California.


Neck and neck here on the coast (0.00 / 0)
CA-17 numbers, with 100% said to be in - Hillary 48.8%, Obama 45.4%. We're a 5-delegate district so presumably this means 3 for Hillary and 2 for Obama.

Hillary did very, very well here in Monterey County, presumably among the Latino majority in the Salinas Valley - with all precincts in she won 55-38, with 5% for Edwards. In San Benito County (Hollister) she did even better, hitting the 60% mark. That was enough to overcome Obama's dominant performance over in Santa Cruz County, where he won 54-40.

With 99% of the precincts in, Obama clings to a 47.3-46.3 lead, with 850 votes making the difference. However, the remaining votes are in Ventura County, and though it's not clear where, much of the Ventura portion of the district is in heavily-Latino Oxnard. This one seems still too close to call.

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave


Below the belt comment (0.00 / 0)
Edwards is playing the Nader role in four districts right now

You know, a lot of us vote by mail and voted BEFORE Edwards dropped out. I resent the Nader analogy. Further, not all Edwards supporters switch to Obama. Why should they? Obama, to my knowledge, has never stated his intention to challenge corporate power, the single most important political force suppressing the will of the people.

aw it was just a joke (0.00 / 0)
And I said Edwards voters wouldn't necessarily go to Obama.  Look, Edwards got the only money out of me this cycle.  The bumper sticker is still on my car.  I supported him up until the day he dropped out.  I advocated for IRV to solve the "voted-for-Edwards-early but he dropped out" problem.

So, come on, it was a joke.


[ Parent ]
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