More on Today's Electoral Vote Field Poll Results

by: Julia Rosen

Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 11:05:04 AM PDT

The lede in the Chronicle today on the Field Poll, is accurate, but fails to take into account historical results for these types of polling numbers. 

California voters are inclined to support a proposed ballot initiative that would change how the Golden State allocates its electoral votes in presidential campaigns, but they're not yet sold on the idea, a Field Poll released today showed.

The actual number who supported the measure was only 47% of voters, with 35% against.  To actually be viable for passage at this stage of the game, an initiative in California needs to be polling at least in the mid-fifties.  Support for initiatives tends to degrade over time.  That is compounded by the tendency for voters who are not sure about the measure to vote against it.  The status quo for these voters is better than supporting something they are not confident about.  This initiative is in real trouble and it is not helped much when voters learn more about it.

Brian notes that support only goes up 2 points when it is pointed out that Republicans would gain from this measure.  Opposition on the other hand increases 7 points.  It still does not crack the 50% line.  Don't know is 9, which is fairly small.

Still, the survey showed there is "initial support for the idea to change the California's system," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll.

"I think voters on both sides tend to see the current winner-take-all to be a little bit unfair," he said. "Even the Democrats in the first question (before political ramifications were explained) were nearly evenly divided."

I wish the Field Poll had gone one further and polled the votes on their support for such an initiative, as part of a national move to change the electoral vote allocation process.  Voters do not like the winner take all system, but I believe they are susceptible to the argument that it not fair for California to change, unless the rest of the country does the same.  As written, this is simply a Republican power grab attempt.  If they were serious about reforming the system, they would put a clause that this would not go into effect unless the majority of other states passed a similar measure.

This from the Chron is just silly:

If the proposal is adopted, analysts suggest that a Republican presidential candidate would get a boost because Democrats can no longer count on all 55 electoral votes from California, which has voted for Democratic candidates since 1988.

They aren't suggesting.  They are saying.  This initiative will cost Democrats electoral votes.  It is just a question of how many.  There is no reason for soft-pedaling this fact.

The SacBee article is much better on all fronts.

These are very reasonable polling numbers for the Democrats.  While I would have liked to see the numbers a lot lower, the failure to break 50%, even with a full description bodes well for our ability to defeat the measure.  Lots of voter education needs to be done and tens of millions will need to be raised.  People need to understand that this could cost the Democrats the Presidential election.  Republicans are weak and are trying every trick in the book to steal the election.