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The Fires, The Budget, And Climate Change

by: David Dayen

Wed Sep 02, 2009 at 12:59:12 PM PDT


I've been reading my Altadena blog and LA Now, and I see that firefighters are making progress on the spate of blazes, and apparently saved Mount Wilson, though it's still in some danger.  This will continue for at least a week, at which point the firefighting emergency fund will be almost completely exhausted.

These are not "unpredictable" costs.  We now have practically a year-round fire season, with damaging blazes cropping up in places where we never saw them before.  And people die from bad budget choices relating to public safety.

There was a provision in the budget deal to have those living in areas most affected by fire hazards pay a fee on their homeowner's insurance to fund firefighting efforts that save their residences.  Republicans blocked them, as they have been doing for years.  As a result we all pay the price in the long term, somehow in the name of "fiscal responsibility."  We're essentially offering welfare for those who choose to live in danger zones.

Which leads us to the reason why these fires have continued to occur, and in greater numbers, year after year.  It's attributable to global warming, and as much as reactionaries and climate denialists hide their heads in the sand about it, the truth remains the same.

Roughly speaking, it turns out that land use issues are probably responsible for about half of the increase in western wildfire activity over the past few decades and climate change is responsible for the other half.  The mechanism is pretty straightforward: higher temperatures lead to both reduced snowpack in the Sierra Nevadas and an earlier melt, which in turn produces a longer and drier fire season.  Result: more and bigger fires.  Plus there's this, from CAP's Tom Kenworthy:

In recent years, a widespread and so far unchecked epidemic of mountain pine beetles that has killed millions of acres of trees from Colorado north into Canada has laid the foundation for a potentially large increase in catastrophic fires. Climate change has played a role in that outbreak, too, as warmer winters spare the beetles from low temperatures that would normally kill them off, and drought stresses trees.

In the western United States, mountain pine beetles have killed some 6.5 million acres of forest, according to the Associated Press. As large as that path of destruction is, it's dwarfed by the 35 million acres killed in British Columbia, which has experienced a rash of forest fires this summer that as of early this month had burned more than 155,000 acres. In the United States to date about 5.2 million acres - an area larger than Massachusetts  -have burned this year.

Destruction of trees by the mountain pine beetle, combined with climate change and fire, makes for a dangerous feedback loop. Dead forests sequester less carbon dioxide. Burning forests release lots of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. More carbon dioxide adds to climate change, which raises temperatures, stresses forests, and makes more and bigger fires more likely.

Some would say that the possibility that forest fires like this are caused by human error contradicts this case, but actually, no.  Dry forest areas are simply more susceptible to a lit cigarette or a spark from an electrical device, and that's due to hotter temperatures and less rain.

We can choose to find other factors for these events, and we can choose to charge everyone for living in places where nobody should.  But that's a choice, made in budgets and made in lifestyle.  It's a choice that's harming our planet, draining our budgets and killing our people.

David Dayen :: The Fires, The Budget, And Climate Change
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Danger: Spin Zone (0.00 / 0)
Climate change and the budget are responsible for fires? Wow, that's a new one.

Actually, there were fires before the Industrial Revolution. Plenty of them.

And there were fires when budgets were good. Plenty of them.

I don't think turning a tragedy into a political message about climate change and the budget is a particularly smart thing to do. I can just see this post being mocked on the FLASH REPORT any minute ...


Um, no (0.00 / 0)
I thought it was clear that I was talking about the propensity of fires, which has unquestionably increased as a scientific fact, and the inability to manage them, which has been hampered by the budget crisis, particularly because we don't ask homeowners living in high-propensity fire areas to share in the cost burden.

But if you want to live in perpetual fear of something Jon Fleischman has to say, go ahead.  Just never mention the fact that wildfire frequency has increased four-fold since the 1980s or try to understand the real-world consequences of a warming planet, and we'll get exactly the kind of reaction to climate change that we deserve.  I'll see you on the floating raft.  


[ Parent ]
There were fires before, but there are more fires now. (0.00 / 0)
Fact: a one degree rise in temperature translates into a 300 percent increase in acreage burned.  

Fact: temperature has already risen 1.5 degrees from the 1960s, and in Cal it's predicted to rise 4 degrees in 40 years.    

Fact from the Bush-era global climate report: Record-setting wildfires are resulting from the rising temperatures and related reductions in spring snowpack and soil moisture, according to the US Global Change Research Project:

How climate change will affect fire in the Southwest varies according to location. In general, total area burned is projected to increase. How this plays out at individual locations, however, depends on regional changes in temperature and precipitation, as well as on whether fire in the area is currently limited by fuel availability or by rainfall.  For example, fires in wetter, forested areas are expected to increase in frequency, while areas where fire is limited by the availability of fine fuels experience decreases. Climate changes could also create subtle shifts in fire behavior, allowing more "runaway fires" - fires that are thought to have been brought under control, but then rekindle. The magnitude of fire damages, in terms of economic impacts as well as direct endangerment, also increases as urban development increasingly impinges on forested areas.
Shorter (pdf): climate change is already here, and increasing temperature, drought, and wildfire will accelerate transformation of the landscape.

[ Parent ]
You could read it that way (0.00 / 0)
Or you could read it the way in which it was intended.  That is, that climate change is exacerbating fire season.

I think?

[ Parent ]
Somebody had to say something (0.00 / 0)
It IS hotter and drier.  And some of us are suddenly having to cope with a LOT more wildfires than we've ever had to before, within the time we can remember.  Something has clearly changed, and whatever it is has created a very dangerous situation.  Instead of pointing fingers at each other, as seems to be the prevailing fashion in this country, we need to identify the problems and then decide what to do about them.  I was glad to see this article bravely taking on the topic of why our state is burning up.  

As for the state budget, it is inadequate in so many ways that another big FAIL doesn't surprise me.  But I think all of our budgets are going to be a mess until somebody with charisma is able to get out there and lead the way back towards social responsibility.  

Right now we've got a bunch of kooks telling people what of course they love to believe--that the government is overrun with waste and fraud, and that the public goods we all rely upon can function on a lot less money, and should possibly even be privatized (I think that tends to make things more expensive and opens the door for even  more corruption but please keep facts out of this beautiful dream)...and so no one should pay any more taxes than they do now, ever!  Not even in a deficit situation.  In fact, we should all pay a lot less!  If we even pay taxes at all!   Let's have a tea party! This will help the economy!

(Just like it did when Repubonomics was tried at the federal level...oh, wait.  Um.  Oops.)

I wish I didn't have to go over the brink with them because I know where this white water goes, but I can't stop them.  They are going to cut, cut, cut until this state withers and dies unless an awful lot of people start showing up at these tea parties with common sense counter-slogans.  What they are selling is something people really want to believe is true so the voice of reality has really got to turn up the volume.  We all have to eat our veggies, brush our teeth, and pay our taxes.  Welcome to responsible adulthood.  We need to pay enough so that our state is again prosperous and stop fighting about it, to boot, since the fighting itself brings on delays which cost a lot of money.

However, I don't see how a candidate for governor is going to win against "the eBay lady", who is yet another government-shrinker,  with a "let's pay more taxes" platform.

Until this anti-revenue attitude gets turned down a notch, I don't know how we are going to have adequate funding for fire management or anything else we need in the aggregate.

As an aside, I also do not understand why the radical righties always get the veto power.  They get to Just Say No without offering alternative solutions.  I don't get to do that even in my little household!  I understand about the tyranny of the 2/3 requirements but what I'm talking about is the capturing of the Zeitgeist as well.  If they didn't have center stage all wrapped up, and people understood what they were really doing to our state's present and future, we would all be spitting at them.

Oh well, eventually the weather might get cold enough to put a damper in fire season.  THEN we will have the flu to worry about.  I'm sure our state is well-prepared financially for that...cough.



I'm calibeep on Twitter
http://web.mac.com/calibeep/Si...


[ Parent ]
Look at all the giant CA fires (0.00 / 0)
that happened in the last 10 years:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T...


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