CA-10: Garamendi Poised For Victory, Only Woods Has Momentum

Wait just one moment... (5.00 / 1)

I suspect that Buchanan knows a great deal more than any of the recent name recognition 'robo-polls' would reveal - and the public FEC campaign expenditure reports give 5 clues as to what she knows.

1.  Data driven strategy: Very early on Buchanan did some $40,000 in polling which means that from the start she knew exactly who she needed to target to win and the messaging which would resonate with them.
2.  Organized well funded ground campaign from the start:  The FEC reports show that during the last three months she has had approximately 200 paid walkers and the same number of paid phone workers laboring each and every of the 90 days.  
3.  Door knocking:  200 workers x 4 hours per day x 15 doors per hour x 90 days = ~ 1 million households with face-to-face contact with actual voters discussing their concerns with targeted messaging, gathering data, and asking for their votes [repeatedly].  
4.  Phoning:  200 workers x 8 hours per day x 20 calls per hours x 90 days = ~2.9 million calls made with actual voters discussing their concerns with targeted messaging, gathering data, and asking for their votes [repeatedly].
5.  Data driven tactics:  Remember that nearly 2/3's of this was done before the absentee ballots were sent out so Buchanan probably knows better than anyone or any poll which voters have already voted and for whom, who supports her, and which are truly undecided.  With less than 3 days to go Buchanan's opponents are flying blind and relying on shotgun tactics with volunteers to get-out-the-vote in 100+ degree weather.  Meanwhile Buchanan's campaign is using a rifle.

I am not saying that this will overcome Garamendi's name recognition, or DeSaulinier's local establishment support, but in a low turnout election, this well funded textbook 'below the radar' ground campaign strategy might prove decisive and create a big surprise...we will see.  What do others think as I'd love to hear?

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by: BBoatman @ Sun Aug 30, 2009 at 20:05:16 PM UTC

Don't Believe Your Own Spin (8.00 / 1)

Garamendi's & DeSaulnier's campaigns are equally adept at targeting.  Both campaigns have been doing extensive phoning and walking.  More importantly, they have people who actually BELIEVE in their campaigns, rather than working for a paycheck.  The enthusiasm a volunteer brings to a campaign can't be duplicated by a paid drone.  I wouldn't be surprised if in some areas Buchanan slips to 4th, behind Woods.

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by: SolanoVoter @ Sun Aug 30, 2009 at 22:54:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not my 'spin' - it is in the public FEC report (0.00 / 0)

All one has to do is read it and apply pretty conservative math.    

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by: BBoatman @ Mon Aug 31, 2009 at 04:41:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No, its spin (0.00 / 0)

The math you are applying is hardly conservative.

First, a factual error: there are 140 paid workers listed on Buchanan's report,  not "approximately 200 paid walkers and the same number of paid phone workers"

Secondly, No the FEC reports do NOT indicate "workers laboring each and every of the 90 days". The FEC reports show some workers getting paid during three work periods in the last reporting period, some only 2 work periods, some only 1 work period. Like every paid walk/phone program, some folks stay for the whole time, but a whole lot flake and only work a few shifts, and then there are also some don't work out and have to be let go.

Third, your number of estimated contacts per hour is way high. 15 contacts per hour of walking is too high an estimate of actual live contacts. And 20 completed calls is too high as estimate of completed contacts per hour.

And then just a couple other points:
"Data driven strategy" - Yeah, Buchanan did a poll. So did everybody else

"Data driven tactics" - Yeah, Buchanan ID'ed voters. So did everybody else. Your "opponents flying blind and relying on shotgun tactics" is ridiculous spin.

And I'd echo SolanoVoters comment about paid walkers - 1 good, motivated volunteer = 5 paid walkers/phoners.  

And finally, you can discount the SurveyUSA poll all you want, but they do have a decent track record and they did screen for likely voters. If the Buchanan field machine has been making an impact in targeting early voters it would have shown up at least in the results among those who said they'd already voted -but Buchanan was in 4th place (behind Garamendi, Harmer, DeSaulnier) there as well.

   

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by: petercharles @ Mon Aug 31, 2009 at 05:55:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

May the best candidate win! (4.67 / 3)

CD10 voters have been fortunate to have many talented and qualified candidates seek this seat. Garamendi, DeSaulnier, Buchanan, Woods and Hampton each brought unique backgrounds and visions to this race; they have actively engaged the voters and have each participated in many debates and forums throughout the district. Each person who does not win should nonetheless have a bright future helping build a better California. Thanks to each of them for their contributions to this process.

Lets make sure we GOTV on Tuesday and then rally behind the Dem who prevails to make sure we secure the seat in November.

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by: demoDan @ Sun Aug 30, 2009 at 23:54:21 PM UTC

Precinct Operations (0.00 / 0)

I personally think Garamendi is going to win, but given the very low turnout it is possible for someone else to take the race if they do a better job getting their voters to the polls.  As far as the comment about a dedicated volunteer being better than a paid walker, you have to be kidding.  Not only is it hard to find a dedicated volunteer who has the time to walk (most have real jobs) but it's also hard to get any volunteer to follow a fixed schedule and for any walk program to be successful, you need to have all sorts of things going on beyond just the appearance at the door.  (i.e.  prewalk cards, post walk letters, follow up phone calls from the campaign to get supporters out, etc.)  All of that is almost mandatory and it's hard to do with a volunteer crew that appears and disappears on their own schedule.  Volunteers are great at some tasks and I even think better at basic phoning.  But you can't have volunteers doing most of the voter contact or you will never have a full program.

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by: doughnut70 @ Mon Aug 31, 2009 at 11:17:59 AM UTC

Izzat So? (0.00 / 0)

By your definition, then, Joan doesn't have a successful field operation either. They've hit my house once, leaving lit under my doormat.  No pre- or post-walk card, no phone message, nothing.  It was the same lit that came in the mail, BTW, so it was a wasted contact opportunity.

Maybe the race is playing out differently in CoCo, but the "feel" up here is that the race is between Garamendi & Woods.  DeSaulnier has endorsements, but it hasn't seemed like much is happening for him otherwise.  That said, I fully expect Mark to make a strong showing.

Hour for hour, I'll take a volunteer over a paid drone any day.  I grant you that paid workers can do a lot more hours, but the rate of persuasive contacts is so much lower as to even the score.

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by: SolanoVoter @ Mon Aug 31, 2009 at 14:15:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I can only speak for Orinda (0.00 / 0)

OK...before someone calls me a shill for Buchanan know that I an undecided now that Garamendi is in the race...Having said that the Buchanan campaign has stopped by our house several times over the past several weeks.  In fact, we got a call from them on Friday and had someone at our door yesterday - a UC Berkeley student who talked lucidly about education and healthcare...hardly a drone.  This was perhaps the 7th time we have been contacted by Buchanan's people and have received literature on healthcare, education, business, and pointing out that she is the only Democratic woman running.

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by: TobyfromOrinda @ Mon Aug 31, 2009 at 15:55:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Precinct Operations (8.00 / 1)

First, the reason I think Garamendi is going to win is that he has successfully (in my opinion) made the case that because of his stature he can get more done.  The key to the race (I think) has been his endorsements by Bill Clinton and Al Gore which are having a bigger impact than DeSaulniers local endorsements.  It's still a question (as it is with any special) of who gets their voters to the polls, but so far, the Garamendi group has been doing well and you would think they could kick it home.  If I am right, it will be a big feather in the cap for consultant Bill Cavala who has called the shots for the campaign and may be able to parlay this into a big jump up in the ranks of political consultants.

As for the comments on precinct walkers, I am not in the district, so I don't know what the follow up is like.  I wasn't praising or criticizing Buchanan's efforts.  But most studies show that voters have to hear something about a campaign six times to retain it (including newspaper stories and talking to friends etc.), so if there isn't any follow up, then the first contact probably doesn't matter.  

As for the point about paid walkers being better than volunteers, the reason for that goes back to the multiple contacts.  The general theory is that you have to do a lot of things connected to any walk program to build up a buzz beyond just the appearance at the door.  You should do a card to tell voters you will be walking in their area, then you have the actual walk, then you have a follow up letter with a specific message if you talked about anything specific when you came to the door. Usually a walker is debriefed on a tape recorder after they are finished so that someone else can do the follow up letter.

The problem with volunteers gets into all sorts of areas connected to walking, including the problems with getting them to dress appropriately, stick to the script and put in enough hours.  But the biggest thing is that unless they are incredibly motivated (of the type of person you only see maybe twice in a campaign) they won't work on a regular schedule and they especially don't like to take the time to be debriefed and are not always available to answer questions about their walk which can be important.

Of course if walking was the most important thing in a campaign, the Mormon church and the Jehovah's witnesses would have the most members.

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by: doughnut70 @ Mon Aug 31, 2009 at 19:16:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thx for your comments!!! & time will tell (0.00 / 0)

I suspect Buchanan increased her spending since the last FEC report and has already topped $1M for her 3 month ground campaign which, if what I hear is correct, is only a very very very very small portion of her personal wealth.  It will be interesting to see what impact this will have had when the actual polls close tonight.  

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by: BBoatman @ Tue Sep 01, 2009 at 12:34:46 PM UTC

Buchanan (0.00 / 0)

It will definitely be an interesting election night.  There was a post on facebook where Republican consultant Matt Rexroad seemed to be rooting for Buchanan in part because he thinks Republicans have a chance of picking up her seat without an incumbent.  I know Buchanan has made a real push at getting votes from Republican women.  It will be real interesting if she has a large bloc of Republican support.

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by: doughnut70 @ Tue Sep 01, 2009 at 14:22:44 PM UTC

So, how'd those predictions work out? (0.00 / 0)

Seems Buchanan's $850K worth of paid drones didn't do the job.  Were I of the millenial snark squad, I'd say something like EPIC FAIL.

It looks pretty clear that DeSaulnier put all his eggs in the CoCo basket.  Did he bother to tell his endorsers he was pulling out of Alameda & Solano?

Kudos to Anthony Woods for a great campaign with a lot of grassroots enthusiasm.

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by: SolanoVoter @ Wed Sep 02, 2009 at 08:08:42 AM UTC

Woods came in second (0.00 / 0)

in Solano.  Good work.  DeSaulnier losing 6,000 votes to Garamendi outside of CoCo made CoCo irrelevant.  Basically, form held.

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by: David Dayen @ Wed Sep 02, 2009 at 14:56:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]