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If you ever chat with an LGBT activist, bumped into one on the street, or happen to sit near one on the train, you've heard about the great 2010 v 2012 debate. It's all the rage in the LGBT community. On the surface, it's a relatively simple point: do we go back to the ballot to repeal Prop 8 in 2010, 2012, or the rather fearsome "someday."
First, to borrow from one activist, let me address one point which I think is frequently ignored in this debate. The decision isn't really one between simply 2010 and 2012. It is a fight between 2010, 2012 and fear. There are some who will always argue that it is too early. There isn't enough money, people are mad right now, yada, yada, yada. To those people, and you know who you are: F you.
To me this is an argument of political strategy and civil rights. And with that, the question is can we build a campaign that can reasonably win in 2010? A campaign that has both smart leadership and a vibrant and successful grassroots. That is what I'm looking at with this question. The Courage Campaign post/letter of last week talked about some of the various strategic questions.
They touched upon one of the questions, but here's a slightly different take:
First, just the hard numbers should give us pause as we look towards the ballot in 2010. That is not to say that we cannot win in 2010, but it will be challenging. The lower turnout will skew slightly more conservative, and there is a slight advantage of just another couple of years taking their course on the electorate. If we were ONLY looking at which would be easier, it's really not that close of a call, 2012 is a better bet.
Of course, we can't look only at electoral ease. LGBT families are being denied civil rights, and that is an untenable situation. As William Gladstone reportedly said, "justice delayed is justice denied." This is certainly true, and a delay hurts not only the LGBT community, but the greater cause of civil rights in California and the nation.
Follow me over the flip, this is going to take a bit of explaining, and a bit of time mulling over the role of Equality California. |
| Yet we need to ensure that if we go to the ballot that we move forward, and not back. A step backward from our 48-52 loss would be a devastating blow, and might hinder our chances at another attempt in 2012.
This is a movement in chaos. There is no leader. There is no follower. I have been involved in many of the decision making processes. And calling them that is rather generous. I don't want to sound heavy-handed here, but you can't run a campaign through a democracy. You can't call for votes of 50 organizations and then do something. You can't plan everything with a conference call of 50-100 people. This is unwieldy, and quite simply, you will not get any better result than we did last November unless we radically change how things are done.
Take the largest LGBT organization in the state, Equality California. They've hired a few new folks, but the fundamental problem we had in 2008 is still there. They are a really, really good lobbying organization, and they are a valuable asset to the community in that role. However, I've yet to see any evidence that they are a really good political organization. The two are vastly different tasks. Marc Solomon, who is now the "marriage director" for EQCA, has tremendous experience in Massachusetts in leading the charge for marriage equality while the case was in the courts and then helping to block it from getting on the ballot, but, to put it bluntly, he's not what you would consider an expert on California ballot campaigns. And as for the ED of EQCA, Geoff Kors, he's not really given EQCA stakeholders any more reason to trust the organization. If EQCA was serious about moving forward, perhaps they should look for leadership amongst the legions of LGBT political campaigners who have had experience in working and running ballot initiatives in California.
Of course, EQCA is a 2012 leaning organization now, and you can't blame them for that. It is, after all, in their interest. Despite polling from their own members showing strong support for 2010, as an institutional player, they are simply more slow to react. But their failures are real in a number of ways. They don't carry the same level of trust, and their tiptoeing through the daisies has prevented any other organization from really taking the lead on this.
This lack of trust in our formerly central organization has led to a flourishing of other really interesting organizations, particularly in the LA Area, pushing for more proactive movement on the repeal. However, EQCA is still clinging to primacy throughout the state, and that fact ensures that no other organization can take the reins, for better or worse. We are left with a sort of cold war, played out in some very passive-aggressive actions between the old guard and the new. It is not effective for anybody, the old line organizations, the newly-formed insurgent groups, and for the community as a whole. If we are to succeed in repealing Prop 8, in 2010 or 2012, we are going to need to sort out these issues.
But our organizational problems can be overcome. Polls alone are not enough, and organization can be built.
"If Barack Obama had relied on the polls, then he never would have run for president," Steve Hildebrand, one of Obama's top confidants and a gay rights advocate, told The Chronicle. Hildebrand has informally advised the Courage Campaign on the issue. "And 16 months until an election is a lifetime."
(SF Chronicle 8/10/09)
There is yet time, but it is an ever-narrowing window. If we are going to go to the ballot, a question of which I am still not sure myself, we simply need to pull our collective shit together. The mob mentality that we have seen in the politics of the Prop 8 repeal efforts has to be harnessed into an effective grassroots campaign with a structure that can support and nurture all that energy. We need strategists who understand California and understand the particular issue that will dedicate their time and effort to the cause.
We can't continue simply playing pattycake and worrying that somebody's feelings will get hurt in one of the 87 marriage equality orgs. I'm all about democracy, but we can't let it run amok with our efforts to win in the bigger democratic arena.
So, there's the gauntlet: get serious about 2010, or about 2012. But either way, let's ensure that we keep our eyes on the prize: repealing Prop 8. |
