CA-Gov: Early Poll Shows Jerry Brown in the Lead

read the poll, not rewrite Garry South's talking points (4.00 / 1)

Newsom is connecting with younger voters

The poll simply did not show that. It showed Newsom only getting just over a third of the under 40 vote in a two way race, with only 47% thinking he has the skills to be governor and only 41% agreeing with him on the issues. That isn't connecting unless you are grading on a curve for a Republican.

Which shouldn't surprise anyone, young voters have always seen through Newsom (he was slaughtered 2:1 among young voters in his only race). The fact that a demographic Newsom does poorer with the more people see of him is the ray of sunshine isn't a sign he is connecting, it is a sign of total weakness overall.

But I can see why Garry South is hyping the youth vote angle even though it doesn't exist, when you are in a position of needing to capture 85% of the undecided vote to get to 50 you might as well just make things up. It would be nice to see South getting called out by the reality based community for such nonsense.


Twitter: @BobBrigham

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by: Bob Brigham @ Fri Jun 26, 2009 at 17:20:54 PM UTC

Newsome's gone South? (0.00 / 0)

Yeah, that'll help him with folks around here :-)

Given the choice of Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsome, can we please have another choice?

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by: mbayrob @ Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 06:39:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

still time for a decent 3rd candidate (0.00 / 0)

There's still plenty of time for an adventurous type to get in the race. Sadly it would more likely be some retread, but it sure would be cool to have more choices and a real campaign, instead of what we've got now (1 declared 1 maybe).


--
www.gregdewar.com

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by: gregdewar.com @ Fri Jun 26, 2009 at 17:35:21 PM UTC

Bill Carrick is pushing O'Connell still (4.00 / 1)

Bill Carrick, who did Angelides's media, is still pushing Jack O'Connell.  The problem is that O'Connell hasn't ever been a particularly good fund raising machine. That being said, Reed Hastings has said that he'd run a million IE for him.  I like Jack, but he has some big ground to make up in terms of name ID if he wants to get in.

I think?

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by: Brian Leubitz @ Fri Jun 26, 2009 at 17:48:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How would he like being an insurgent candidate? (0.00 / 0)

There's a lot of energy laying around for the right candidate.  An Obama-ish or Dean-ish strategy for a gubernatorial run in California has yet to be attempted.  Me thinks it might work.

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by: mbayrob @ Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 06:42:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Go Jerry! (0.00 / 0)

Newsom....not so much.

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by: A.Citizen @ Fri Jun 26, 2009 at 18:48:31 PM UTC

Newsom (1.33 / 3)

The only chance for Newsom is if Gordon Getty decides to go out and buy votes.  It will not take a genius for someone from brown's staff to get the newsom prop 8 video to scare the dems into voting for someone in the center on the off chance anyone is stupid enough to think a republican can win.  

Brown's name reco is enough to win a primary.  The only challenge was from antonio - the racial therapeutic types and the latinos would have been a nice base to grow on.  Newsom's base is only the most insipid people who like guys with slicked back hair and wandering penises.  

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by: moderation @ Fri Jun 26, 2009 at 18:58:27 PM UTC

Actually (0.00 / 0)

Newsom is gaining supporters from much a broader segment of the liberal base (not sure insipid was quite the word you were looking for, but it sounded good anyway.) Wandering penises don't bother most of us all that much, so long as you aren't preaching the opposite morality and many people are starting to seriously doubt the Prop8 videos will have the desired effect.  I'll grant you he is slick though.  

From my prospective, Jerry Brown is just another one of my parents generation of politicians, like John Kerry was. Certainly a good person, but not very inspiring.  Perhaps it's more appropriate to refer to his potential candidacy as insipid, i.e. "lacking in qualities that interest, stimulate, or challenge."

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by: David in Burbank @ Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 17:48:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Did I miss something? (0.00 / 0)

Did Brown finally actually announce his candidacy for governor, cause the last fund raising email I got from him asked me to donate to which ever campaign he decides on based on how much money he raises before he decides which campaign he's going to run.  

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by: David in Burbank @ Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 17:35:41 PM UTC

The Man Behind The Curtain (0.00 / 0)

To all you 'twitterlings' who have bought into the slick PR campaign being mounted by Newsom and his handlers, I suggest you look deeper. A good place to start would be the article "The Two Newsoms" by Steve Jones at SF Bay Guardian. The last thing we need is a second tier Schwarzenneger.
Dont get fooled again.
Patrick Monk.RN. Noe Valley.SF.

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by: patrickmonk @ Wed Jul 01, 2009 at 17:16:30 PM UTC