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In The End, Just The People Left

by: David Dayen

Sun May 24, 2009 at 14:35:31 PM PDT


The hopes of receiving loan guarantees backed by the federal government to help California secure borrowing to cover short-term cash issues dissipated the moment the media started calling something that wouldn't cost the government a dime a "bailout."  With Democrats essentially mimicking their Republican counterparts and the rhetoric of a fiscal reckoning predominant, a solution based on massive program cuts and eliminations appears inevitable to everyone in Sacramento.  Only regular citizens - the same ones demonized by elites for daring to vote against what elites call "their own interests" - hold legitimate interests in stopping the drive to cut our way out of this crisis.  Students in Los Angeles are holding walkouts over proposed firings of teachers.  The families who would be most directly hit by canceling programs like Healthy Families (California's SCHIP), CalWorks (serving poor families) and Cal Grants (student grants-in-aid for college) are speaking out about the real-world effects of those cuts.  And a growing movement of activists from across the political spectrum are looking to the future by trying to turn this crisis into a tipping point for a Constitutional convention to get the state onto a sounder fiscal course.

The silence from the political leadership on these fronts is deafening.  And yet, absolutely everyone knows the remedies to perpetual crisis and long-term dysfunction, remedies that too rarely cross the lips of leadership so that such opinions could actually make it to the minds of the electorate.  Evan Halper today provides some relief in this desert with an oasis of an article, explaining in clear language exactly what steps can be taken to transform California into something other than the failed state it is.  I don't agree with all of it - Halper asserts that the richest 1% of the state contribute half of the income tax, which is simply a function of inequality and frankly irrelevant; he leaves out that the effective tax rate for the top 1% (around 7% of income) is LOWER than that for those with the state's lowest incomes (around 11%) - but it's still worth reading.  An excerpt:

The oft-cited waste and abuse is a problem, but the deficit is bigger than the entire state bureaucracy.

California could fire every state employee -- including well-paid prison guards and university professors -- close every government office, stop all travel and even cease the purchase of paper clips without closing the budget gap. The government would be gone but the deficit wouldn't [...]

The runaway spending is caused largely by an ever growing group of Californians making use of basic state services as the cost of those services escalates. Since Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger took office, for example, the amount the state spends on Medi-Cal health insurance for the poor has grown more than 40%, from under $10 billion annually to more than $14.4 billion. Spending on community mental health services has nearly tripled, and the state's program that provides services for the disabled leapt from a $1.6-billion annual expense to nearly $2.4 billion.

This has happened despite efforts by the state to contain costs. Primary care doctors, for example, are paid just $26 for an office visit with a Medi-Cal patient. There is no simple way to seriously limit these healthcare costs short of eliminating the benefits for hundreds of thousands of Californians.

Halper's five steps - updating the tax structure, eliminating the 2/3 rule, reining in citizen initiatives, building a real rainy day fund and instituting a performance review - are a mixed bag IMO, but they take a legitimate, serious approach to reforming the governmental structure, coming from the position that the current system is exactly how not to run a state.  Regardless of these solutions, a debate on which we can and should have, that viewpoint makes me hopeful.  I believe people are starting to understand the intractable nature of the current process, a thought echoed by Jean Ross in her special election post-mortem:

So why do I believe that the May 19 results can be viewed as a triumph of hope over fear? I spent the better part of the last two and a half months traversing California, talking about the budget, the special election, and California's future. From San Diego to the North Bay, I spoke before diverse audiences ranging from Orange County PTA activists to Silicon Valley community leaders, from philanthropists to East Bay nonprofit leaders and community organizers in Los Angeles. While California faces tremendous challenges - the worst economic downturn in the post-World War II era and budget crises that show little prospect of abating - I found a new level of interest, concern, and commitment to building a better future for all Californians.

While I am not going to argue that the thousands of individuals that I met are a representative sample, they do represent the best that the state has to offer. Parents who volunteer to improve the quality of their children's schools and public education more broadly; nonprofit service providers who struggle in the face of tight budgets and rising demand to care for the state's most vulnerable; and interested voters who got up early or stayed out late to learn the about the state's finances, how we ended up in the mess we're in, and how to get out. Almost universally, I met voters deeply dismayed by, but profoundly interested in fundamentally addressing, the state's budget challenges [...]

In the midst of all this doom and gloom, I found an underlying sense of optimism. The afterglow of the November election has brought new activists to the table and rekindled a belief that change is possible. There is also a sense of realism and an understanding that tough choices lie ahead. The ambitious federal efforts to stem the economic downturn, stabilize financial markets, and rein in the excesses of private markets are beginning to help voters see government as a solution to, rather than the cause of, economic malaise.

Our leaders have failed.  Our people have not.  In fact, they're just getting started.

David Dayen :: In The End, Just The People Left
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I sent Lakoff's take on the CA budget (0.00 / 0)
to my legislator, M. Perez. I still hold out hope that the Democrats can reclaim the majority role.

I'm union staff, but not a spokesperson for my union - all posts represent my views solely.

If we had normal budget and tax rules... (0.00 / 0)
and if it merely required a 50% +1 majority to raise taxes and pass a budget, would the Democrats have closed the budgetary gap?  Or would have leaders failed so dramatically with a better system?  

History matters (5.00 / 3)
If we hadn't had a 2/3rds rule then the history of the last seven years would have looked very different - perhaps the last ten years.

It's probable that Democrats would have voted for tax cuts in 1998, but perhaps not to the reckless extent that actually occurred that year (which was the year the present crisis was set in motion). It is certain that in 2002 the Democratic legislature would have raised taxes to close the gap. Without the 2/3rds rule Gray Davis would have looked less like a failure (the long budget delay that summer helped tank his ratings further and set up the recall).

I won't quite say that we could have avoided the recall. If we hadn't, then Democrats would have been in a better position in 2007 to resist the Republicans' demand for cuts. They'd still have had to deal with Arnold, which mitigates how much they could accomplish, but then again they'd have had a stronger hand.

Because of the truly bad tax decisions made since 1998, the structural revenue shortfall today is difficult to close. And Sacramento Democrats do not have the power to reverse what is looking like a near-Depression, which is being ignored by most people as a cause of our budget crisis but is certainly responsible for its unusual depth and severity.

So repealing the 2/3rds rule alone wouldn't have avoided this crisis. But it would have helped make the deficits less steep and would give us far more wiggle room to fix things than we currently have now.

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave


[ Parent ]
Budget (0.00 / 0)

Very good commentary.

remind me again why... (1.33 / 3)
remind me again WHY our legislative leadership shouldn't be tossed in the ashbin of history? remind me again WHY we shouldn't recall every single legislator and the Governor and start over?

Yeah yeah 2/3rds rule and term limits, but you know what? even if we overturned those, we'd still have a lot of dimwits in the Legislature who vote for these stupid budgets in good times and bad.

Would it kill local democrats to not elevate every small town elected dimwit to higher office based on stupid NAME ID alone and maybe try and find articulate people who can think through stuff?

And can we please tell the special interest folks, esp. those ones that pull the strings for corporations and other bloated interests with our legislators, to suck it once and for all?

I know  Iknow, ain't gonna happen....we're too busy patting ourselves on the back and thanking God there aren't more of "them" in office. Whatever. The GOP can go to hell, for sure. But it seems like the moment you put a Democrat in the legislature, the brain cell loss is fatal for our state.

--
www.gregdewar.com


A constitutional convention is (1.67 / 3)
about as likely to happen as Texas seceeding from the Union.  But I would like to know how such a thing could occur?  How do we actually call a constitutional convention?  Does it require a vote?  Is it the legislature's job to call it?  Or is it some default mode the state has to fall into?  And what happens when one is called?  Does everything go on hold, or does everything get erased or do we even know?  Has a state ever had a constitutional convention beyond the one that starts a state?  Just asking, since I am just one of those people left.

In fact (4.50 / 2)
Several states have had Constitutional conventions before.  Some have succeeded, some not so much.  I'm actually researching the history for a later post.

On the mechanics, the legislature has a provision to call a convention, but of course that requires a 2/3 vote.  Failing that, you can put an initiative on the ballot to lower the threshold and an initiative to simply call the convention.  You can even do that at the same time.  Once one is called, while the convention does its business the legislature moves forward under the old rules.  The convention comes up with a new Constitution, and then that new document is also put to a vote of the people.  If passed, it takes effect.


[ Parent ]
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