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At the heart of the matter: the broken system

by: Brian Leubitz

Mon May 04, 2009 at 08:07:57 AM PDT


I am working for the No on 1A Campaign, however, I am not working for any other No campaign. My opinions should not be construed to be those of the campaign, especially when it comes to the remaining measures.

One of the reasons that I oppose Prop 1A, and to a lesser extent the other measures, is the sense that it is one more thing that we'll have to fix. It is one more layer of dysfunction on our staked seven layer dip of dysfunction. But as a practical matter, it is critical that Californians understand the structural dysfunction that is at the heart of the mess:

A defeat of six of the seven measures on the May 19 special election ballot - a good possibility, according to recent polls - could mean a return to the Capitol's pattern of futile negotiations between Democrats, who hold large legislative majorities but little sway, and minority Republicans, who hold the last word on budgets.

If nothing else, political observers say, such a scenario could present an opening for Democrats to unmask what they believe to be the heart of the Legislature's dysfunction: the two-thirds vote in both houses to pass a budget, as required by the state constitution since 1937.
*  *  *
California is one of only three states - alongside Rhode Island and Arkansas - to require a two-thirds vote on budgets. Only five states, including California, have a two-thirds requirement for taxes. (CoCo Times/MediaNews 5/3/09)

You know that, I know that, but at least according to the variety of polls we have seen since the marathon budget session, people forget quite quickly just exactly why we have this level of dysfunction.  They forget that the majority of California is getting mugged by an increasingly small minority that is doing its darndest just to maintain control of a third of the legislature.  Back in February we had majorities for overturning the budget 2/3 rule, and a close call for the tax rule. Now we're looking at uphill slogs in both.

That doesn't mean that we shouldn't work to get both out of our Constitution. It was quite the subject at the CDP convention

Lowering that threshold to a simple majority is "the next big fight we need to win," Treasurer Bill Lockyer said at the recent state Democratic Party convention, where delegates identified the two-thirds requirement as the most pressing issue among 117 they considered.
*   *   *
Strategists and party officials say that they expect to put the issue before voters on the November 2010 ballot, perhaps lending it extra profile during the gubernatorial campaign. (CoCo Times/MediaNews 5/3/09)

I think the 117 number comes from the number of resolutions, which was actually 119. (Trust me, I was there for the marathon meeting.) As for the most pressing, I'm guessing that came from the prioritization from the resolutions committee, but  that should be taken as the consensus of the convention. It is merely that all 20 voting members of the resolutions committee recognized that it should be prioritized. But the point is still well taken, it truly is the most pressing issue.

We've heard rumors of propositions to change the 2/3 majorities, but the only props on the Secretary of State's website don't appear to be from any institutional player and don't go back to the simpler to explain majority vote, opting rather for the arbitrary 55% figure.  I don't know who exactly will lead the charge against 2/3, but it needs to be a cohesive effort from the grassroots all the way to the top.

We simply cannot let this dysfunction continue.  And right along with that, we can't add on to the dysfunction with Prop 1A. I understand the need to grab the $16 Billion that will come in two years from tax increases, however, make no mistake that the spending cap formulas contained in Prop 1A will haunt us for years, and will be with us far beyond the two years of the extended regressive taxes.

We need to repeal 2/3, and on May 19, we need to be careful that we don't add one more item to our list of things we have to change.

Brian Leubitz :: At the heart of the matter: the broken system
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So crossing your fingers is the new strategy? (0.00 / 0)
This proves, once again, there's no realistic alternative to the ballot initiatives. Just a lot of hopes and dreams about what we might do in the future.

Wasn't the Field Poll sobering enough about where the overwhelming majority of California is? We all want the 2/3 rule overturned, but to cause massive cuts, denying health care for the most vulnerable, and shattering the dreams of kids to get there isn't the way to go.

Again, the challenge is here for Prop opponents: to avoid massive cuts that you admit will happen if they fail, what's your plan for IMMEDIATE action if the initiatives go down that will get legislative approval, the governor's signature, and voter approval (if needed).


So, your response is to make the situation worse? (0.00 / 0)
As I said, Prop 1A will make the budget system worse.  And what happens when the taxes level off, and we have to cut $16 Billion from the governor's baseline budget, how does this make the situation any better.

This sky is falling stuff plays to the worst of the voters fears, and it isn't even working. Prop 1A just does not solve any problems. The public doesn't want legislators giving them some long, complicated measure once again claiming to be the fix we need.

But if you want to challenge for plans, what is you PLAN when the budget explodes in two years, again. We're just kicking this can down the road, once again.

I think?


[ Parent ]
I think the establishment plan should be obvious (8.00 / 1)
Start collecting signatures for another term limits extension initiative, of course.

And maybe an initiative to make sure that there are no prohibitions on the transfer of contributions from party to legislator or PAC to legal defense fund all as a legislator sees fit.

Because the leadership knows best, and we should not get in the way of them doing as they like.


[ Parent ]
So let me get this straight (0.00 / 0)
You think wthe layoffs of thousands of teachers, firefighters, and health care workers, topped off with billions in cuts to services to those that need them most, are worth it, and will help eliminate the 2/3 majority rule?

Perhaps you should check the Field Poll. As the budget gets worst, support for 2/3 seems to have declined.

P.S. -- Still waiting for your Plan B.


[ Parent ]
divorced from reality? (0.00 / 0)
How many years have you worked for people who did absolutely nothing to fix the actual problem (but did plunder the Party and try and extend term limits)?

Nothing is fixed if the initiatives pass, but things get worse. Yet neither really matter compared to the need to fix the actual structural problem that remains as legislative leadership let the Republicans have a veto.

P.S. Only somebody who thinks "sacguy" is something other than an insult would consider the burden to be on those opposed to the Governor's package.

Twitter: @BobBrigham


[ Parent ]
What's your plan? (0.00 / 0)
I would like to hear Steve's plan for eliminating the 2/3 rules, and his view on how approving these propositions makes the repeal of the 2/3 rules more likely to happen.

I haven't heard anything like that, at all.


easy (0.00 / 0)
1. Deny Nunez was a total disgrace as Speaker
2. Plunder the Democratic Party for a total disgrace as Speaker
3. Extend term limits so a total disgrace can remain longer as Speaker

Twitter: @BobBrigham

[ Parent ]
Yeah Bob (0.00 / 0)
total disgrace? AB 32, raised the minimum wage, pushed for a health care plan that insured all kids and nearly all adults that won national praise, authored the first prescription drug plan, made sure the Contreras Labor Institute stayed in the budget, and on and on and on.

what's disgraceful are your attacks.


[ Parent ]
Nunez 2010 (0.00 / 0)
The former speaker has opened a campaign committee for State Senate District 22 in 2010 (or possibly earlier, if Cedillo is elected to Congress).  At the last report, the committee had just shy of $5 million -- with $4 million of that coming from the disputed Nov 2006 transfer from the California Democratic Party.

[ Parent ]
Nice spin (0.00 / 0)
Passing the initiatives takes the wind out of the sails of 2/3 opponents who will say there's no rainy day fund and no other limitations on spending.

more importantly, it saves the jobs of thousands of teachers and firefighters, and prevents billions of dollars of cuts to people who need state services most.

now, your alternative to prevent these cuts if they fail? i'm still waiting and it's been almost two weeks.


[ Parent ]
So your plan is: Republicans rule that way, also. (0.00 / 0)
So your plan for repealing the 2/3 rules consists of reassuring Republicans that the state budget will never increase?  A more stunning statement of the problems with our current Democratic legislative leadership could hardly be imagined.

The goal is not to repeal tax controls after making it impossible for the state to do the things it may need to do in the future for education, health care, etc.  The goal is to repeal tax controls so that the real needs of the state can be addressed, now and in the future.

As for this side, we've responded again and again with what steps we recommend if the propositions fail, but you never acknowledge what we say.


[ Parent ]
In fact (0.00 / 0)
There have been some pretty specific plans outlined on this site. Calitics user MarkD has been writing about his plan for a while now, Robert offered the free advice of focusing on Prop 1C, and many others have written about how they would like to see this go down.

I'm not sure I understand what that first sentence means, but I'll respond to some of it. First, we do have a "rainy day fund". It was called Prop 58, and it was supposed to keep us out of these kinds of predicaments:

Proposition 57 is Part I of Schwarzenegger's recovery "plan.'' Of lower profile, but equal importance, is Proposition 58. It would help set some fiscal discipline in Sacramento by prohibiting any future deficit bonds. It would establish a "rainy day fund" to cushion the state budget against downturns. It also would enhance the governor's budget authority by allowing him to declare a fiscal emergency and call legislators back to Sacramento to address budget shortfalls. It would take some of the wiggle room out of budgeting by requiring that the final budget -- not just the governor's proposal -- be balanced in revenues and expenditures.  

That's from a Chronicle editorial in support of 57 & 58. That's worked fantastically, right? Well, I suppose not, but these are the same arguments that we heard just five years ago. And since Prop 56 went down in that election, we've not done much to improve our situation.

And finally, to your second sentence, well, I ask you again, what happens in two years when the cap kicks in if 1A passes and we still have to make these deep cuts? The same people get laid off, and we've made the problem worse.

I think?


[ Parent ]
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