| First, the 3rd has been growing more and more Democratic over the past decade (current #s: D-38%, R-40%, DTS-18%), and Lungren's 5.5% victory over underfunded, undersupported Dem candidate Bill Durston looks a lot weaker when you figure that the Peace and Freedom candidate pulled 4% in the same race. Given the foreclosures devastating the 3rd, and the long term secular shift in the greater Sacramento area towards a left of center Democrat+Decline to State majority, a big name candidate with strong support from the party might be able to beat Lungren.
Second, Garamendi's actually from the area, unlike SoCal carpetbagger Lungren (who, to his credit, does represent a significant demographic of SoCal transplant McMansion types in the district). He knows the area and the issues pretty well, having represented it at the state level for some time. Having a congressional advocate for the delta who understands water issues would help a lot too.
Third, the sad fact of the Gubernatorial race is that the money race looms over everything, and Garamendi's said too many reasonable things of late to rake in those fundraising dollars. In the 3rd, he'd be a bigger fish in a smaller pool.
Fourth, there are already a ton of Democrats running for the 10th, and to date noone is making so much as noises for the 3rd. It would be a better allocation of candidates to force the GOP to play defense everywhere than to focus everybody on one safe seat.
Finally, from a strictly selfish perspective, Garamendi taking Lungren out in the 3rd would significantly reduce the likelihood in the post-2010 redistricting that Yolo County has to put up with some Sacramento Valley wingnut for a congressman. The 3rd has often been a sort of south Sac Valley district, and having Garamendi in that seat when the State Legislature draws up the new map in 2011 (Prop. 11 only affects redistricting at the state level, not congressional) makes it more likely that they'll draw the 3rd so that it's at least a lean Dem district.
So, John, how about it? I'd love ya for governor, but if it's looking hopeless, please think about the 3rd CD.
originally at surf putah |
