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Calitics Ed. Board Says No on Special Election Initiatives

by: Calitics Editorial Board

Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 08:30:00 AM PDT


For more information about Calitics and the editorial board, see our About Calitics page.

During the budget week from hell, we mildly cheered on the progress of the budget process. We were concerned about the short-term budget issues, but were also dismayed by the rapid rightward shift of the negotiations.  Unfortunately, as an Editorial Board we simply cannot support the measures as they have been brought to the May 19 Special Elections Ballot. We share the concerns of the League of Women Voters that this package was poorly designed and poorly executed, resulting in a plan that will ultimately create more harm than good. And since none of these measures address the structural revenue gap, adding another layer to an already suffocating fiscal straightjacket makes no sense whatsoever.

We do not appreciate the fearmongering message from supporters of the initiatives, who obviously can't find anything to recommend in these solutions and thusly must warn of impending doom in order to get them passed.  We remind voters the words of Bill Clinton: "If one candidate's trying to scare you, and the other one's trying to get you to think... if one candidate's appealing to your fears, and the other one's appealing to your hopes, you'd better vote for the one who wants you to think and hope."

Prop 1A - State Spending Cap. NO

Beginning with Prop 1A, the heart of this package, we cannot do better than the LWV in briefly describing the flaws:

[Prop 1A] would actually make it more difficult for future governors and legislatures to enact budgets that meet California's needs and address state priorities. It would amend the state Constitution to dictate restrictions on the use of funds put into the reserve and limit how "unanticipated" revenues can be used in good years. It could lock in a reduced level of public services by not taking proper account of the state's changing demographics and actual growth in costs. Prop 1A would also give future governors new power to make budget cuts without legislative oversight. Like the other propositions opposed by the League on this ballot, Prop 1A came from a deeply flawed process that resulted in measures written in haste and without public input or analysis. The League would support real budget reform, but we regretfully conclude that this measure would only make things worse. (League of Women Voters)

And there's actually much more.  We don't have to guess about the impact of spending caps.  In 1992, Colorado instituted a spending cap as part of TABOR, and within a few years spending on education, health care, and practically all other measures of government dropped from the middle of the pack relative to other states to almost dead last in every category.  Considering that California ALREADY ranks near the bottom in these categories, the result would be even more disastrous.  The California Budget Project estimates that the cap would force the state to reduce expenditures $16 billion dollars below the Governor's baseline spending projections by 2010, $17 billion by 2011 and $21 billion by 2012.  That's a FAR BIGGER gap than the two years of tax revenues that would be lost by voting down 1A.  These revenues are highly unlikely to ever be recovered, because of the faulty indexing of the cap and the fact that it's based on a level of revenues made during the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.  And Democrats claiming that there's an ingenious "out" of the spending cap because it could be raised if taxes are raised neglect to mention that this doesn't apply to fees, which would essentially end any efforts to work around the conservative veto by raising revenues through fees to fill a budget gap.  In fact, the way the spending cap is structured, it would force contributions into the rainy day fund EVEN IN DOWN BUDGET YEARS.

Failure of Prop 1A would indeed reduce funding to our government in 2011-2013.  Yet this assumes that legislators could never deal with revenues in the intervening two years. Further, the increased revenues we would receive from Prop 1A are simply not worth the long-term damage to our government that this measure would create.  That's why the CTA and the Democratic establishment worked so hard to defeat a similar spending cap plan in 2005.

Prop 1B - Education Funding. Payment Plan. NO

Prop 1B isn't really inherently bad.  It is simply made irrelevant by our position on Prop 1A through a clause that takes 1B down if Prop 1A fails. It provides a workaround to a disputed technical question in Proposition 98 by setting up a one-time $9.3 Billion fund for education.  If this didn't come with the baggage of Prop 1A, it would be worth considering. But as it stands, we simply cannot accept the pair.  That being said, if Prop 1A passes, it is important that Prop 1B passes. If we were to vote strategically, we would vote No on 1A and Yes on 1B, but we leave that decision to you.

It is worth noting that Prop 1B would not provide a solution to the catastrophic financial crisis facing public education in this state, and would do little if anything to help the 26,000+ teachers who received a layoff notice last month keep their jobs in the fall. Since Prop 1B's effects are not permanent, it would not exempt public education from the likelihood of funding shortfalls that Prop 1A would produce. Education has already suffered enough from one-time short-term budget deals that produced long-term problems.

Proposition 1C - Securitization of the lottery. NO

Prop 1C would allow the Treasurer to sell bonds backed by the lottery revenues. The budget deal assumes that we will get $5 billion for this deal, but that number remains highly speculative. However, our opposition does not stem chiefly from any quibble with the amount of money it would bring in, but rather from our overall sense of failed governance that emanates from the entire package and this  proposition specifically.  George Skelton calls this proposition a "payday loan" and no better words could describe this.

The fact is that we have done this before and it failed. Back in 2004 after Arnold wiped out the dreaded "car tax" he came to the voters of this state complaining about how we are going to fix this budget. So, he told us that if we just passed props 57 and 58 to sell some bonds and tweak the budget process, he'd handle it from there.  Needless to say, the problem was exacerbated rather than ameliorated, in particular because the state NEVER SOLD THE BONDS.  If this package represented real reform that would allow the state to move forward with an honest and democratic budget process, this would be more palatable.  If we knew that we wouldn't just be back in the exact same situation 18 months from now, this might even be a reasonable idea to dig ourselves out of a very deep hole.

As it is, we'd prefer to wait for something real.

Prop 1D - Diverts $600 Million from Prop 10 First Five funds to other childhood programs. - NO

The First Five Program was created in 1998 by the passage of Proposition 10.  By raising the cigarette tax by 50 cents per pack, California was able to create a sustainable program with its own source of revenue.  But that has always been a thorn in the craw of the right-wing Republicans.  It is spending they cannot touch for programs they would rather not fund.  But the First 5 commission has been successful in providing funding for innovative and successful programs.  And the commission's own prudence has led it to the chopping block.  They planned for the inevitable decrease in cigarette taxes by building up a cash reserve, and that money has grown too tempting for the Legislature. It is a pot of money, and they cannot resist.

Rather than raiding First 5, we should have provided a sustainable revenue for the state. We should not abide by these budget gimmicks and ploys, and First 5 should not be their victim.

Prop 1E - Diverting Mental Health Services Funding - NO

This initiative would cut into the Prop 63 (2005) money for mental health services from the 1% surcharge on income over a million dollars.  Although this slash job wasn't as bad as what was suffered by First 5, as it has a prominent defender, it is still unacceptable.  Mental health services are financially prudent spending. It saves money that will end up being spent elsewhere, whether for homeless services or prisons.  Diverting this revenue is penny wise and pound foolish. Both Prop 1D and 1E come from the "rob Peter to pay Paul" school of budgeting, although in this case "Peter" is young children and Californians with mental health needs who have few defenders or other resources to fall back on.

Prop 1F - Wasting Your Time. An Initiative. - NO

Prop 1F would block any pay raise for legislators when the budget is showing a deficit.  It is an infinitesimally small amount of money in the grand scheme of things and accomplishes remarkably little for something on a statewide ballot.   First, not getting a raise in deficit years is not a sufficient incentive for anyone to actually do anything, nor is it really meaningful shared suffering.  The implicit assumption that the trivial penalty of Proposition 1F could be a meaningful incentive to not run a deficit treats elected officers as greedy sociopathic children who need petty personal financial incentives to deal with the state's budget.  Building this assumption into the California Constitution is unnecessary and further entrenches in the state constitution far-right market fundamentalism and contempt for the role of government.

Second, if we're going to constitutionally impose shared suffering or financial penalties on elected officials, why is it a balanced budget that's the trigger?  Why not base it on the number of California's children in poverty, the condition of our infrastructure, the state of our parks, the number of homeless, the funding levels of our schools?  Instead, Proposition 1F privileges a morally blind view of the world -- balanced budgets are the only measure of legislative accomplishment for which elected officers can be penalized financially.  Why this needs to be on the ballot can be answered only by Abel Maldonado, but it's a nothing more than an ill-conceived placebo designed to placate angry voters -- and so will no doubt pass. However, we don't need to countenance Abel's temper tantrums.

Calitics Editorial Board :: Calitics Ed. Board Says No on Special Election Initiatives
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No one likes it (4.67 / 3)
The odd coalition against the Propositions is not proof that it is the right thing to do (as the Governor would contend).  Its just a poor collection of gimmicks to solve a huge problem.

I would like to see a big reduction in spending (prisons in particular).  We must get into the pensions and look for excesses.  I want state workers to have a comfortable retirement after a productive career as a government worker, but I think the pension system we have is excessive.

Increased taxes during a recession are just wrong, but if we need more revenue at least make the taxes progressive.  I hope that voters reject the propositions and the legislature starts anew with the budget.  Its a terrible problem but they just didn't get it right the first time.


I know those were tough choices... (4.00 / 1)
I'm glad to see the Calitics editorial board is in line with the endorsements of the California Nurses Association.  Writing a screwed-up deal in concrete doesn't make any sense.

150,000 RNs = one Superunion!

The California Nurses Association is affiliated with National Nurses United and the AFL-CIO


Well Said ! (5.80 / 10)
There seems to be a lot of reluctance to go against the heroic work that Steinberg and Bass did to achieve any compromise.

It's like my relief when my young son would finally end ten days of constipation.

Shit! Yes, finally, shit! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! He finally extruded a huge, long, piece of excrement that he worked on day and night!

If you didn't experience the agony of the constipation, it's just, well, shit.


OC Progressive is Gus Ayer, former Fountain Valley Council member.  


best political analogy of the year! n/t (5.67 / 3)


Twitter: @BobBrigham

[ Parent ]
OOooh, we are in good company (4.00 / 1)
John and Ken agree with us! And look, they even have Arnold's bloody severed head spinning on a pike near his good buddy John Chiang's head.  Aah, have to love politics in California.  Here's the picture from their site.

Photobucket

I think?


Thanks for this analysis (5.00 / 1)
We had Howard Wayne come talk to the Mesa Democratic Club last night, and he made a No vote on 1A very easy.  I'm not 100% convinced on 1D and 1E - I'm not a fan of lockboxes, but I hate Republicans trying to subvert the programs in those particular lockboxes.

My guess is these are all (except 1F, which as you note doesn't do anything meaningful) going to fail, but for the wrong reasons: voters will see them as tax increases.  Whatever; I'll take it.  Would much prefer to see well-informed, rational voters, but sometimes we just have to settle for the right outcome and to hell with the rationale.


The No on 1A campaign finally begins (0.00 / 0)
While CTA may be going all out in support of 1A, Capitol Alert reports that the other state teachers' unions, CFA and CFT have joined with SEIU, which also represents some school employees, to form a committee against 1A, to which CFA just donated $77,000.  No word yet, at least as far as I can find, on CSEA.

Thank you! (5.00 / 1)
For having the courage to say what so many of us have been thinking. A bad deal under tough circumstances is still a bad deal. And this is a stinker. Unfortunately, the people with the podium are lining up behind it. So we're going to have to get the word out ourselves about what a nasty deal with the devil these really are. Thanks for the good start!  Chris Finnie

Glad to see I agree with you (0.00 / 0)
I'd worked my way around to the same position, but you've done it much more thoughtfully.

The only thing that matters -- getting rid of the anti-democratic 2/3 vote requirement to pass a budget -- isn't on the ballot.

Can It Happen Here?


Not just 2/3 (0.00 / 0)
Term limits are another issue.  The main reason I see why legislators are pushing so hard for 1A and 1C is that they're termed out soon and won't have to deal with the consequences.  They get to put what's popular or expedient ahead of the long-term reform we need.  We see this year after year, all the legislature does is kick the can down the road.  Any long-term plans get scrapped once new legislators come in and want to pass something with their name on it.

[ Parent ]
I'm still undecided(on 1A) and appreciate the Calitics analysis but (0.00 / 0)
labeling "fearmongering" projections of budget cuts, layoffs and program cuts reminds me of the Republican arguments about "fearmongering" against the public employee union sponsored ads against Proposition 13 which projected budget cuts, layoffs and program cuts. While the magnitude of the cuts can be questioned, I don't think most reasonable observers would dispute there will be major cuts.

My college district had to implement $10 million in cuts mid-year because of declining state revenues and the failure of the legislature to pass a budget on time. Now it turns out that the new budget was out of balance from day 1 and the result is we have to go back and make $10 million in additional cuts. If these ballot measures don't pass, we will have to make $7 million in cuts on top of the additional $10--so $17 million in new cuts, $27 million in one year. There is no fat left. There will be blood. It won't be pretty. Its not fearmongering, just reality.

Now I have to weigh that $7 million figure against the projected future loss of revenue if 1A passes, which could be substantial. We could be shortchanging those students just beginning high school if we are not able to adequately fund programs in future budget years.  Short term gain versus long term pain. Not an easy choice. I'm less moved by the arguments against the lottery measure and think the opposition to them(as well as the dismissive arguments about 1F)are more tactical--easier to defeat 1A if you urge no on the other revenue measures.

It would be more helpful to many voters if there was a viable alternative(emphasis on viable)that was being brought forth by opponents of these measures. Lowering the 2/3 requirement for a budget to a majority will probably pass, but that's 2010. And I suspect lowering the 2/3 to a majority vote for raising revenue will fail the same year and we're in the same boat, only sinking faster. Your editorial board simply says the proponents assume that legislators wouldn't deal with the revenue problem in the ensuing two years. Ya think? Past practice doesn't give me much hope that a better deal could be struck, but maybe I'm missing something.

So if you have a better plan, one that isn't dead on arrival, let me know. Your arguments against 1A have merit but where am I going to get that $7 million this year if the voters defeat these ballot measures? And where will I go next year for another $7 million? If I tell the students who wont be able to get classes and the employees who will either be laid off or get reduced hours that these ballot measures are a bad deal, what deal can I tell them will fill the budget hole instead?


I understand your concerns, but... (5.00 / 1)
First off, 1A will not get you money this year.  1C, 1D and 1E might.  In the long run, however, whatever cuts you make now will be made permanent by 1A.  Spending in prisons and ballot-box budgeting increase costs above inflation and population growth, so the real per capita amount that we'll be able to spend will fall every year unless we raise taxes every year, even in good economic times.  Every time we have a deficit, the spending cap would drop right back down to whatever budget deal we pass then--necessitating more and more taxes and budget cuts every year.  Two-thirds or no two-thirds, raising taxes every year just to keep education funding at its current, depressed level isn't a recipe for "budget stabilization," it's a recipe for a Republican takeover of Sacramento.

Tell your students and laid-off employees that, because of the two-thirds rule, 14 Republicans were able to force draconian budget cuts on their school and their other social services: Sam Aanesta, John J. Benoit, Dave Cox, Jeff Denham, Robert Dutton, Tom Harman, Dennis Hollingsworth, Bob Huff, George Runner, Tony Strickland, Mimi Walters, Mark Wyland and Abel Maldonado (do credit Maldo for agreeing once he dragged out the process long enough and got enough non-budget quid pro quos attached to the deal).


[ Parent ]
Thank your for your thoughtful, respectful and responsive reply............. (0.00 / 0)
which I intend to share (at least the first paragraph) with our districts finance people. I get the argument of downsized budgets in the future due to these cuts and I want to get numbers from our finance people on this point. I thought you made your point well. if I can get some numbers on what the measure will do in the future I will share those.

For the two others whose response seemed rather knee jerk, I can only hope that you use a less confrontative approach to others who, like me, are undecided about 1A. The points I made about cuts to our district if these don't pass were not made by political hacks but by numbers folks who are fairly apolitical. I acknowledged that there would be a future downsize, hence my uncertainty about the measure. And as to the political point, trust me I've made that one. But May is a different finger pointing moment and for me its not how we got there(and how we need to reform the budget system), its what serves the best interests of my district.

Go back and read what i actually wrote and then if you want to beat up on a straw man you create, go right ahead.
I'm not arguing for 1A, and you certainly haven't heard me on this issue before. I'm just trying to determine all the options. I know we are going to have to make cuts with or without 1A but my point is that the information I have received from our staff is that the cuts will be $7 million more if these don't pass. Although mediaptera raised a good point about 1A and timing, I didnt see evidence or efective argument made that we won't be down an additional $7 million if things go your way. So I need to weigh the future budget limitations against the immediate fiscal stimulus. I intend to do that thoughfully, giving greater weight to data rather than dogma.



[ Parent ]
let me just say (0.00 / 0)
that the $7 million ahead that the finance guys have told you would be the immediate impact comes FROM somewhere.  In this case, it comes from poor children, the mentally ill, and your grandkids.  Now, it's perfectly fine for you to make the argument that your school needs that money and there's nothing else that can be done, so we have to raid First 5 and mental health funds, and sell yet more bonds for future lottery money that probably won't be coming.  Heck, I'm not that big a fan of ballot box budgeting so there's at least a case that can be made.  But hopefully you will take into account where that money is coming from, and that your relief is someone else's suffering.  If you want to be provincial about it, fine, but make no mistake - the mentally ill, poor kids, and future generations are where you're getting that money from.  And those people are in your district too.

1A has no bearing on the current budget whatsoever, and in fact in the short-term, it will severely effect the FY2010 budget, by about $16 billion from the Governor's baseline, so by the time you even get to those sales taxes that would be extended, you'll be in the hole.  It makes no sense.


[ Parent ]
I'm troubled (0.00 / 0)
that you're characterizing people's responses to you as "kneejerk".  The Editorial Board collectively put many hours of thought and research into the positions taken here, including listening to and reviewing cognates of the exact concerns you were voicing.  Stating politely that we have heard those concerns before and that we disagree is hardly a kneejerk response.

Last, I only intended to respond in detail on 1F, and did -- I think it can be properly characterized precisely as I have done.  Your statement that the position taken on it was just tactical in order to seem consistent with the other positions was insulting.  


[ Parent ]
We have heard your position before (0.00 / 0)
at length.  We simply disagree.  As far as 1F, I can say with authority that the arguments the Editorial Board made against 1F are not tactical.  

1F is a contemptible placebo, which will accomplish nothing of substance except to let voters think that at least they get to punish the legislators for this mess.  Except the mess has got almost nothing to do with the majority of legislators and almost everything to do with a completely broken structure and a minority of legislators who put their oath to Grover Norquist above the needs of the citizens of the state.

Essentially, the Republican minority is holding the rest of the state hostage every year, and we keep paying the ransom.  But the next year they do it all over again.  Giving the voters a little frisson of glee at a meaningless vote to "punish" every elected official won't change that basic structural problem one iota.  


[ Parent ]
Please argue for something (0.00 / 0)
tell me exactly why forcing spending $16 billion below the Governor's baseline budget next year will help your school get full funding.  Tell me exactly why allowing the Governor unilateral authority for midyear cuts will make your school's funding safe.  Tell me exactly why having to pay into a reserve fund even in down budget years, meaning that tens of billions of dollars will never be able to be restored to state services, will somehow fund your school.  We're not just talking about long-term pain, but immediate, permanent and devastating pain.  Ask anyone in Colorado who suffered under this system until the BUSINESS COMMUNITY, of all groups, begged for a repeal.

A statement like "if you have a better plan, let me know" neglects that we've argued for the only reform plan that would work for California, eliminating the 2/3 rule as soon as possible, for going on 3 years.  If you want to lock yourself into a straightjacket because of some sense of the possible, go ahead.  We'll continue arguing for reality-based solutions.


[ Parent ]
The education cuts are terrible (0.00 / 0)
There is already blood, and amputated limbs on the floor.

The way I see it, if I vote no, my daughter's school will endure even more terrible cuts for her 4th and 5th grade year.

If I vote yes, my daughter's school will endure those cuts in her 6th, 7th, 8th, and beyond into her college years.

I wrote in another thread that I feel like the choice I'm being given is:

Would you like us to shoot your dog now, or shoot all dogs in two years?

My sense is that I would rather endure two years of this budget and work like crazy in 2010 to eliminate 5 Republicans and/or eliminate the 2/3 requirement so we can get a rational budget, rather than put ourselves in a situation where these initiatives have to be overturned.

But, it is an awful choice either way, and I can certainly understand choosing instead to vote yes on these initiatives and hope that we can work around them in 2010 and going forward. I'm not sure which way is more plausible.

Fry, don't be a hero! It's not covered by our health plan!


[ Parent ]
Agreed. It's time to start unwinding the tangled budget mess (0.00 / 0)
instead of keeping the way it is and putting a conservative straitjacket over it for good measure.  

We can't just be for the defeat of these measures; this is just the first step - we have to eliminate the 2/3 rule for taxes and budgets so we can get the schools the $9 billion Arnold thieved from them and let the adults budget responsibly.  

Also, concerning 1D and 1E, why isn't the tax giveaway to the out of state corporations part of this whole discussion.  At the same time the kids and the mentally ill are hit with big cuts (1D and 1E), the corporations get giveaways worth hundreds of millions.  We ought to make the Republicans defend that, plus with the elimination of the 2/3 rule, corporatist Dems won't have Republican scapegoats to blame for this kind of crap passing anymore.  

Need a contact # for a CA Legislator? Check here


I agree, and I think that we have an opportunity (0.00 / 0)
to send a message that we won't settle for gimmicks, and we won't straightjacket our state for another generation - it is time for real reform.

1F (0.00 / 0)
I suspect it may pass, just because it sounds so good to most people.

I'm wondering what's hiding in it that it didn't get any 'no' votes in the legislature - there has to be a loophole in there, or it wouldn't have passed.


There's not really anything hiding (0.00 / 0)
At least not as far as I can tell.  But:

(a) It's borderline meaningless as far as the amount of money concerned, and

(b) Would you want to the be legislator who voted against that?


[ Parent ]
TABOR facts wrong (0.00 / 0)
As expected.

From a 20-year CO resident:

Since 1992, TABOR caused CO government to grow 69% and refunded over $6Billion in excess revenue to taxpayers in the longest sustained boom since the state's silver rush.  The quality of life there is still superior to CA as well, until more Californication happens out there.

You can complain all you want about spending caps, but the fact is, the quality of the education in CO increased during that same time, proving once again that you liberal lefties have never understood that the problem is not solved by throwing more money at it.

I'm voting NO on 1-A for the right reasons, not your contrived malarkey.  Those right reasons include the fact it's not a real spending cap, it doesn't balance the budget, it actually adds to the Prop 98 funding base--increasing the deficit in the future--and it increases taxes for two more years when anyone with a brain knows you can;t tax your way out of a recession.


Life under TABOR (0.00 / 0)
was so totally teh awsom that voters passed a repeal in 2006 after seeing their state services go completely to pot.  Maybe behind the gates of your community it felt splendid, but those who got royally screwed by it could possibly enlighten you about the effects.  Also the economy in Colorado grew slower under TABOR than the typical economy in the Rocky Mountain region.  That would be why the business community raised money for its repeal, because they know that no business could survive under the structure that TABOR mandated on the state.

I'm sure you know better than the hard data because you totally lived there and it rawked


[ Parent ]
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