The No on 1D/E Campaign, which recently merged, have released an internal poll (PDF) from Tulchin Research. The data is consistent with a previous PPIC poll. Prop 1D (First 5) is slightly ahead 48-42, and Prop 1E (Mental health) is down 44-46. More spin details from the No campaign:
* A solid majority of voters describe the measures as "deceptive" (56%).
* Nearly half of the voters are concerned they will "cut funding for children and the mentally ill" (45%).
* There are nearly twice as many voters who strongly oppose Props 1D & 1E.
* The voters most likely to cast a ballot are more likely to vote NO than less likely voters.
* "Definite" voters reject Proposition 1E (42% Yes - 48% NO).
* "Definite" voters split their opinion on Proposition 1D (46% Yes - 45% NO).
* Nearly 1 in 5 voters (18%) believe that Props 1D & 1E hurt programs and services, particularly for children and the mentally ill.
* 16% of voters describe the initiatives as "deceptive" or "dishonest."
Either way, being below 50% at this point is just a really bad position. It is possible to make up some grouund with a ton of money, but the yes campaign will be swimming upstream from the general drift towards no. In a low-turnout special election, that drift is likely to be more visible.
All I'm saying is that if I were on the "Budget Reform Now" campaign, I'd be getting pretty nervous right now.
