| The July PPIC Statewide survey was released late last night. It's focused on environmental issues, but the gubenatorial election data that was also obtained in the survey was not great news. According to PPIC, Schwarzenegger is leading Angelides 43-30. Part of the difference between this and other polls is due to the way the question was asked. Rather than just saying Angelides, Schwarzenegger or other, the question mentioned specific candidates like Green Party candidate Peter Camejo. Camejo gets 4 percent in this poll and likely takes most of that from Angelides.
PPIC is generally a very good survey organization. It doesn't have quite the accuracy of Field, but it's certainly not something out of left field. That being said, Schwarzenegger is still polling well below 50%, the traditional indicator of a safe incumbent. Interestingly, it appears Democrats have yet to be convinced by Angelides. Currently only 54% of Democrats say they support Angelides. This is a real growth opportunity for Phil; he needs to get his message out to the Democrats around the state. Arnold pulls down 79% of the GOP vote, and Angelides will need to get a similar percentage of the Dem vote.
A sizable ad campaign will help reverse some of the poor numbers. If you think about it, this poll is really taken in the valley of Phil's popularity. He's coming out of a bruising primary and is being massively outspent. Future spending and additional appearances around the state will improve his standing not just among Dems, but also among independents, a category that Arnold is leading 43-25.
So, what can we do to help get Phil's message out. One interesting opportunity is Phil's "volunteer center", a virtual phone bank. It is imperative that the voters of this state are aware the stakes of this election. Let's not let Arnold coast. As always, the Poll HQ has been updated. |
