| Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/5-7. Likely voters. MoE +/- 4%
Boxer (D) 49
Schwarzenegger (R) 40
It isn't likely that there are a pair of socks thick enough to warm Arnold's cold feet and his 51% unfavorable is only likely to grow as he has joined the Republican legislators in stonewalling a budget. But, the fact that 31% of California Democrats have a favorable view shows how much work the CDP has not done. Hopefully, despite John Burton's close friendship, the CDP will remedy that number.
As for Boxer, she is under 50% in a head-to-head, but the poll didn't test her re-elect number. Her net favorable is only two points, which is also a concern. With only 2/3 of Democrats holding a favorable view, she needs to shore up her base. Her best age group is the under 30 crowd with a net +8, but she is nowhere near the range of the Barack Obama youth surge.
I would have also liked to have seen numbers on Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman as they are far more likely to be the nominee. What are you seeing in the numbers.
UPDATE by Dave: Actually, the huge mistake of this poll is not running numbers on the guy who's going to actually be the Republican nominee, Chuck DeVore. He just secured the endorsements of practically the entire GOP State Assembly and over half of the GOP partisan officeholders in the state. And it's January '09. There is no chance that Arnold Schwarzengger, loathed by his base, can beat DeVore in a closed primary. None. Ain't gonna happen. There's only one head-to-head worth polling, and that's Boxer/DeVore. Poizner and Whitman are running for Governor. The field is cleared. |
