This Politico story confirms what I've been saying for 18 months - California has a serious opportunity at the state and federal level this November. The idea that the delegations are somehow fixed is a crutch that defeatist operatives use to explain why they lose year after year. The truth is that, in a time of financial crisis and economic uncertainty, multiple seats are up for grabs regardless of the district-level makeup (and that's swinging to Democrats as well). Why else would the NRCC be riding to the rescue of longtime California incumbents?
Darren White and Erik Paulsen were prized Republican recruits, House candidates poised to be the new face of the GOP on Capitol Hill.
But as the two head into the homestretch of their campaigns, GOP operatives say they'll probably have to win - or lose - on their own. The money national Republicans earmarked for White in New Mexico and for Paulsen in Minnesota will likely go instead to protect GOP incumbents who once looked like locks for reelection.
GOP Reps. John B. Shadegg of Arizona, Lee Terry of Nebraska, Henry Brown Jr. of South Carolina and Dan Lungren of California are all fighting for their political lives, a reversal of fortunes that has caught even the most astute campaign observers by surprise.
By the way, the man who gulped the hardest reading those paragraphs was Dean Andal, who will similarly become roadkill for the NRCC as they run screaming from his train wreck of a campaign.
Those "astute" political observers, by the way, haven't been paying attention. Lungren's CA-03 was clearly the most movable in the state and has been for the entire cycle. The demographic shifts are identical to CA-11, and the exurbs are exactly the regions that are switching to the Democrats this cycle. There will be no difference in registration in that seat on Election Day, mark my words. And other seats are winnable in the state as well.
In California, Republican operatives have noticed some troubling trends.
Two years ago, Lungren - who is completing his seventh term in Congress - beat physician and Vietnam War veteran Bill Durston by 21 points. But the economy has taken its toll, and Lungren's district has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country. In a newly released Democratic poll, Lungren leads Durston by just 3 percentage points.
Former GOP consultant Allan Hoffenblum said Rep. Dana Rohrabacher and other California Republicans, including Reps. David Dreier and Brian Bilbray, are also at risk.
"The Republican base is not sufficient by itself to elect a Republican in those [California] districts; they still need the independent vote," Hoffenblum said. "In the past decade, they have been reliably voting Republican for president and for Congress. ... There are a lot of angry and scared voters out there. This is not your traditional environment."
After eight years of George Bush, it was NEVER going to be a traditional environment. People can't stand him, and the economic crisis threw the failures of his Presidency into sharp relief. Being a Republican is TOXIC in this political milieu. Ken Calvert in CA-44 is running mailers calling himself "An Independent Voice Working for You." Ken Calvert!!! No incumbent with an (R) next to his name is safe, to put it mildly.
So folks, understand that the road to salvation this year does NOT go through the eastern parts of the state and into Nevada to canvass for Barack Obama. He is going to need a progressive Congress to keep him honest and make sure he exercises bold leadership in dealing with the mess George Bush will leave him. California needs your ATTENTION. The progressive wave crested well before hitting the Pacific Ocean in 2006. We have a half-dozen candidates for Congress, and another half-dozen for the state legislature, that can absolutely win if they have the money and the volunteers to get their message out. If you want progressive legislation, if you want California's perpetual budget crisis to end, if you want a government that cares about improving people's lives, STAY IN CALIFORNIA and find one of these races.
CA-03: Bill Durston
CA-04: Charlie Brown
CA-26: Russ Warner
CA-45: Julie Bornstein
CA-46: Debbie Cook
CA-50: Nick Leibham
CA-52: Mike Lumpkin
SD-19: Hannah-Beth Jackson
AD-10: Alyson Huber
AD-15: Joan Buchanan
AD-26: John Eisenhut
AD-30: Fran Florez
AD-78: Marty Block
AD-80: Manuel Perez
There are more than this, too. More on that tomorrow. You have absolutely no excuse. Go find the campaign nearest you and lend them a hand. We can build that wave as high as we want. |
