Primary Turnout: Might Be A Good Year to Compete Everywhere

Wow! (0.00 / 0)

Just. Wow.

Amazing, Lucas. Thanks for digging this out.

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by: gjones @ Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 13:28:20 PM UTC

SD Union-Tribune wrote about this (5.00 / 1)

Logan Jenkins, the U-T columnist for politics in North County San Diego, wrote this week about how Bilbray might be screwed this year. Jenkins isn't exactly a Democratic cheerleader, so this is good news. Liebham also gets a little mention in the column.

Between them, Clinton and Obama received more votes (77,000) than McCain, Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani combined (73,000).

Nick Leibham, a Democratic congressional candidate gunning for Bilbray's seat, offered a one-word reaction to the numbers: "Wow!"

"Essentially, there's registration parity in the 50th," the Rancho Santa Fe attorney gushed. He sees numerical evidence that rank-and-file Republicans are divided while the Democrats and independents are sky high.

What this means, in my view, is that Bilbray is in for a tough ride to re-election, especially if Obama wins the nomination. Assuming the GOP nominee is McCain, the Republican base could be grumbling.

He goes on to talk about how McCain is no turnout booster for the (heavily anti-immigrant) GOP in this district. And he posits that Clinton as an opponent is the only thing that could get them to turn out, thus recommending Obama for Dems.

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by: CarlsbadDem @ Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 17:05:56 PM UTC

Bilbray is in for a tough ride to re-election (8.00 / 1)

(just wanted to see that money quote again in bold; Nelson Muntz voice: "Ha-HA!")

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by: CarlsbadDem @ Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 17:08:54 PM UTC

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Yup (0.00 / 0)

that was the piece that got me thinking.  I've noticed Jenkins write about a potentially competitive 50th twice, and it's amazing how awful it always is.  But I suppose in the absence of anything better...

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by: Lucas O'Connor @ Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 21:10:49 PM UTC

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wow (0.00 / 0)

a 9,500 vote margin for the dems in CA-03. might it be possible to send lungren packing this time around?

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by: wu ming @ Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 18:47:20 PM UTC

Impressive (0.00 / 0)

I saw that too, and it seems almost too good to be true.  I wonder if Lungren's office even noticed... as far as I know, Lungren's office is not in Republican special school for at risk candidates (unlike Bono, who certainly is) run by the NRCC.  This could bode well for Northern CA's chances at picking of another Congressional district if Charlie Brown's race ends up not going anywhere now that Doolittle is out. (though I wish the best to Brown, but it doesn't look good up there).

Do you, as an afficianado of local Dem politics, happen to know how much overlap there is between CA-03 and the State Senare seat for Yolo, if there is any at all?  Could be encouraging there as well for Wolk.  

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by: slowpitch @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:06:30 AM UTC

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not much, from what i can tell (0.00 / 0)

the only overlap between the two seems to be a swath of rural northern solano county and part of the delta in southern sacramento county. the only cities of note in both are isleton in the delta, and perhaps part of the west side of elk grove.

wolk ought to be fine in her run, given the way the district's been shifting recently. she's well liked in yolo and solano counties, and democratic turnout should be through the roof for the presidential election. machado never ran the numbers up in the northern half of the district like he could have, because he was relatively unknown up here before the redistricting.

5th SS district

3rd congressional district

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by: wu ming @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 18:00:17 PM UTC

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having just gone over the countywide #s (0.00 / 0)

in yolo, solano, sacramento and san joaquin counties, it's not looking good for the republicans. they're getting doubled by democrats everywhere but sac county, and even there they were 20,000 votes behind the dems.

clicking through the sacramento bee's interactive map, the same pattern emerges.

could be an interesting election in the valley.

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by: wu ming @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 18:11:43 PM UTC

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And we will be competitive in CA-26! (0.00 / 0)

My blog


Twitter

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by: cali_girl_in_texas @ Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 20:45:23 PM UTC

25th (0.00 / 0)

Accoding to the candidate filing information at lavote.net, Jacquese L. Conaway has pulled papers in the 25th.

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by: runchadrun @ Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 00:12:15 AM UTC

Now how... (0.00 / 0)

are you getting those district numbers?  CNN's site only has the breakdown by county.  Link?

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by: BruinKid @ Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 01:42:47 AM UTC

CA SoS page has district (5.00 / 1)

Link. To get Lucas' numbers, looks like you'd have to go to each party separately, then within each party, the districts, then add up the totals for all the candidates.  

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by: CarlsbadDem @ Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 01:57:58 AM UTC

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yup (0.00 / 0)

that. calculators are fun.

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by: Lucas O'Connor @ Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 02:23:10 AM UTC

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CA 46 (8.00 / 1)

Keep your eyes on the 46th and remember the name Debbie Cook, Huntington Beach's mayor.  Crazy Dana is going down!  That's all I can say for now but you heard it here first.

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by: HBVern @ Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 02:06:21 AM UTC

Turnout (0.00 / 0)

Good analysis.  The only flaw with it is that Republicans (at least by comparison with Democrats) traditionally turn out in Presidential elections, no matter how unhappy they are with their nominee.   The key for any Democratic challenger will be to articulate issues (the war, the environment?) that will draw some Republican voters in those districts to their side, even if they don't support the rest of the Democratic ticket.  

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by: doughnut70 @ Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 03:43:05 AM UTC

Clearly (0.00 / 0)

this isn't the be all and end all on turnout.  Far from it.  Just one bit to add to the whole.

And given that the Republican side in CA was winner-take-all by district, Repubs had every reason to turn out just as Dems did.  There was a legitimate diversity of choices on both sides with a realistic opportunity to cast a vote that mattered.  I don't necessarily buy the notion from some that Repubs will be more cohesive in the general, and I'm also not sure that it's an issue of any particular candidate being better or worse at drawing Republican voters.  There will be nuances to be sure, but I think it would be unwise (at least at this point) to discount the meta trends that go beyond candidates of either party.

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by: Lucas O'Connor @ Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 03:49:42 AM UTC

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Finally, a solid lead for Ds in the 45th (0.00 / 0)

I'm still waiting for a definitive statement by Julie Borenstein.  She gave a great speech to the Democratic Women of the Desert, and her CV is just staggering.  She's the only Democrat to have won an election around here in years.  Since then she's been working to create affordable housing.  She's filed, but she's not out in front yet.  And so I wait.

There are two candidates already running, Paul Clay and Dave Hunsicker, but neither has the unified support of the local grassroots the way David Roth did last time.  Borenstein will, I suspect.  And if she does go ahead and start running in earnest, she'll give Bono the response we need to give.  

I'm union staff, but not a spokesperson for my union - all posts represent my views solely.

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by: Beth Caskie @ Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 03:45:36 AM UTC

speaking of competing everywhere... (0.00 / 0)

I have a stupid question. Actually 4 of them. How do I find out (1) if my assembly guy is termed out, and (2) who is currently signed up to campaign against them or for the open seat? Then (3) and (4) are ditto (1) and (2) for my state senator.

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by: CarlsbadDem @ Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 02:30:51 AM UTC

FYI (0.00 / 0)

I'm Assembly #74 and Senate #38.

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by: CarlsbadDem @ Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 02:32:25 AM UTC

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Here you go (0.00 / 0)

Martin Garrick (R) is your Assemblyman.  He was elected in 2006 so you are stuck with him until 2012.  I couldn't find anyone who had opened a committee yet to oppose him.  

Mark Wyland (R) is your Senator.  He also was elected in 2006 and will be there until 2014.  

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by: sanchez96 @ Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 20:11:13 PM UTC

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Spoke too soon... (0.00 / 0)

Brett Maxfield has opened a committee in the 74th.

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by: sanchez96 @ Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 20:24:21 PM UTC

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where do you look (0.00 / 0)

to see who has opened a committee? I'd llike to keep tabs on this on an ongoing basis. Anybody know what the deadline is for (I'm assuming) the June ballot?

Is Brett Maxfield a Dem or is the R getting primaried? I've never heard of Maxfield.

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by: CarlsbadDem @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 00:31:03 AM UTC

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thanks!! (0.00 / 0)

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by: CarlsbadDem @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 00:31:19 AM UTC

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