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The Real Out-Migration

by: Brian Leubitz

Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 17:00:00 PM PST


Housing, not taxes, are forcing people out of California

by Brian Leubitz

There is much ado about the "job creators" fleeing California because of the high taxes. These uber wealthy are leaving, so we are told, because the high income taxes just aren't worth it.

Except that isn't true at all. In a new analysis by Trulia.com chief economist Jed Kolko, housing is the culprit:

Here are the basic facts. In 2011, 562,000 people left California, and 468,000 came, according to the Census's American Community Survey. That means 120 people moved out of California for every 100 people who moved in. Out-migration reached its peak in 2005, when 160 people moved out of California for every 100 people who moved in. The California exodus rose with the housing bubble and subsided in the recession. Lower home values in 2008-2011 made California more affordable, encouraging in-migration and discouraging out-migration, as well as pushing some California borrowers underwater, further discouraging out-migration. (Trulia blog)

The graph on the right isn't the only one that makes the case clear. If we are to really continue our growth, we must address the housing crunch that is going on, especially along the coast. That isn't accomplished through slashing services and budgets, but rather working to create new affordable housing solutions and ways for young families to stay here in California, where most would rather stay.

Thus, the slashing the government approach that the Legislative Republicans, far from being the panacea they claim, would make the situation worse as affordable housing money continues to dry up. Housing must continue to be a key focus of both our state and local governments.

Brian Leubitz :: The Real Out-Migration
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Yes (0.00 / 0)
what are these "affordable housing" solutions. More government spending and taxes? LOL.

Here in the real world, we know that there was a real estate bubble in California because of big government zoning policies that make it impossible in many places to either

A. BUILD UP
B. Build in certain areas that are restricted

Even Krugman admits the truth.

For this much is true about Texas: It has, for many decades, had much faster population growth than the rest of America - about twice as fast since 1990. Several factors underlie this rapid population growth: a high birth rate, immigration from Mexico, and inward migration of Americans from other states, who are attracted to Texas by its warm weather and low cost of living, low housing costs in particular.

And just to be clear, there's nothing wrong with a low cost of living. In particular, there's a good case to be made that zoning policies in many states unnecessarily restrict the supply of housing, and that this is one area where Texas does in fact do something right.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08...

and here

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...



NO SALE !!! (2.50 / 2)

'...there was a real estate bubble in California because of big government zoning policies that make it impossible in many places to either...'

The NEW Tea Party Meme: the Housing Bubble was the GOVERNMENT'S FAULT !!!
REALLY ??

You mean those Poor Banks and S&LS and Real Estate speculators have been TAKING THE BLAME for NO GOOD REASON  ???

Greed and Sepculation had NOTHING to do with the Housing Bubble ????
It was Government Policies !!!

PATHETIC !!!
KU KLUX KLOWN  !!!


[ Parent ]
LOL (0.00 / 0)
Krugman, tea partier, now? LOLLOLOLOLROFLOROFOL.

[ Parent ]
Q & A (0.00 / 0)
Do BANKS Bear any responsibility for the melt down ??
Did they bundle securities they knew were worthless ??

How about Real Estate Brokers ?
Did they know prices were inflated and speculative ??

How about some of the home buyers >
Were they tring to get in on the bubble ??

How about the hedge funds buying and selling speculative securities at spectacular profits ??

Real Estate Agents ??

THAT'S the Reason for the Housing Bubble !!

GET A CLUE !!


[ Parent ]
supply/demand (0.00 / 0)
basic tenets of capitalism can not be wished away

[ Parent ]
Answer the questions (0.00 / 0)
Do BANKS Bear any responsibility for the melt down ??
Did they bundle securities they knew were worthless ??

How about Real Estate Brokers ?
Did they know prices were inflated and speculative ??

How about some of the home buyers >
Were they tring to get in on the bubble ??

How about the hedge funds buying and selling speculative securities at spectacular profits ??

Real Estate Agents ??

THAT'S the Reason for the Housing Bubble !!

And what about ordinary American home owners ?
Financing vacations, cars, etc with 2nd mortgages ?

As for Paul Krugman, see http://www.democraticundergrou...

Just another right wing scam


[ Parent ]
what does the link (0.00 / 0)
have to do with anything I said. Nothing at all.

The Tech Bubble
The South Sea Tulip Bubble

Why don't you go read up?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S...


[ Parent ]
Jonathon Swift (0.00 / 0)

.....And Jonathan Swift called for eating Irish children. He did. I've seen the quotes!.......
'A Modest Proposal'

The point is that Paul Krugman NEVER SAID that the Governemnt was responsible for the Housing Bubble
He was mocking Alan Greenspan

The Housing Bubble was largely the responsibility of the Big Banks, Mortgage Brokers, and Wall Street speculators

WHAT part of THAT don;y you understand ??


[ Parent ]
If you actually (0.00 / 0)
clicked my link to Krugman, he says that other states should adopt Texas's loose zoning policies as opposed to the restrictive policies that California has because it reduces the cost of living for individuals.

[ Parent ]
BIT (0.00 / 0)
But, Paul Krugman NEVER SAID that the Government was responsible for the housing bubble

Sensible people know that bubbles are caused by SPECULATION
i.e the 'Free Market' flagrante

The banks and Wall Street Sepculated with housing and mortgages
(as well as the Real Estate industry and many consumres)

Only the Banks and Wall Street got bailed out

Even You know that !!


[ Parent ]
texas housing is also cheaper (0.00 / 0)
because the geography where their cities are located have little to no natural barriers to sprawl. both the SB-LA-OC-san diego megalopolis and the bay area are hemmed in by ocean and mountain ranges (only the central valley is free to really sprawl). compare that with dallas, fort worth, houston, san antonio, austin, el paso, etc., which are free to grow in nearly every direction.

in california, outside of the central valley, the only place left to go is up. and while i agree that zoning limits on building height have been a mistake, that still is going to end up producing more expensive, smaller real estate.  


[ Parent ]
Nice try (0.00 / 0)
But no cigar.

Plenty areas in Los Angeles County, San Francisco County are restricted from "sprawl" although I reject that term because of the negative liberal connotations attached to it. I prefer expansion and development. Examples in Los Angeles County include Ahmanson Ranch (you can google it) and the 405 expansion that was rejected through the Topanga area.

In the Bay Area, West and South  of Burlingame-San Jose-Sunnyvale is open. Also west of San Rafael.

Btw, common fallacy that building up is going to produce more expensive real estate. See the original links


[ Parent ]
Say What ? (1.00 / 1)
I can't think of ANY areas in SF county that are restricted from 'Sprawl'

Except the parks and schools
SF is completely developed
That's why people are starting to develop in the poorer parts of the city

But, I am OL with restricting sprawl
I'm not that 'into' the 'Free Market'  


[ Parent ]
sorry shouldn't have said (0.00 / 0)
SF county,
but "Bay Area"

also there are heavy restrictions in SF county on "building up"


[ Parent ]
not just driven out by expensive housing (0.00 / 0)
a lot of those leaving CA during the bubble are people cashing in on their undertaxed, overinflated equity.

I'm staying !! (0.00 / 0)
I bought in 1986 and I'm staying

We'll pay it off this year

The problem with buying a house in Texas, is that you HAVE TO LIVE in Texas
NO THANKS
WAAAAY TOO HOT !!!


[ Parent ]
Paul Krugman (0.00 / 0)
from the Washington Monthly:

'...The financial crisis of 2008 and its painful aftermath, which we're still dealing with, were a huge slap in the face for free-market fundamentalists. Circa 2005, the usual suspects - conservative publications, analysts at right-wing think tanks like the American Enterprise Institute and the Cato Institute, and so on - insisted that deregulated financial markets were doing just fine, and dismissed warnings about a housing bubble as liberal whining. Then the nonexistent bubble burst, and the financial system proved dangerously fragile; only huge government bailouts prevented a total collapse.
Instead of learning from this experience, however, many on the right have chosen to rewrite history. Back then, they thought things were great, and their only complaint was that the government was getting in the way of even more mortgage lending; now they claim that government policies, somehow dictated by liberals even though the G.O.P. controlled both Congress and the White House, were promoting excessive borrowing and causing all the problems.
Every piece of this revisionist history has been refuted in detail. No, the government didn't force banks to lend to Those People; no, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac didn't cause the housing bubble (they were doing relatively little lending during the peak bubble years); no, government-sponsored lenders weren't responsible for the surge in risky mortgages (private mortgage issuers accounted for the vast majority of the riskiest loans).
But the zombie keeps shambling on - and here's Mr. Rubio Tuesday night: "This idea - that our problems were caused by a government that was too small - it's just not true. In fact, a major cause of our recent downturn was a housing crisis created by reckless government policies." Yep, it's the full zombie.


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