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The Real Demographic Hysteria in California

by: Brian Leubitz

Thu Dec 13, 2012 at 08:30:00 AM PST

Net loss? Hardly.

by Brian Leubitz

Over the last few days, you may have read a few breathless stories about how Californians are moving out of the state. We're having a mass exodus apparently!

Exodus: California, once a magnet for the enterprising and ambitious, is losing residents. There's not so much a giant sucking sound coming from the Golden State as there is the hiss of a balloon losing its air.

The Census Bureau says that California had a net loss of 100,000 people last year. Many headed for Texas (58,992), while Arizona (49,635), Nevada (40,114), Washington (38,421) and Oregon (34,214) all took in fleeing Californians. (Investors Business Daily)

So, what's the deal you ask, we lost residents in California? Well, no. We did not lose residents in California. What happened is that who Californians are has changed. The IBD article goes on to blame everything on the awful Californians and their terrible, terrible taxes. And then they close with this:

Maybe they'll catch on when they look around in a few years and find there are no longer enough productive citizens left to support everyone else. So far, though, they haven't shown much of a capacity for learning.

But, earlier I said that we haven't lost residents, so what gives you ask? Well, the number that the IBD chose not to include was the fact that over a quarter of a million people moved here from outside of the United States. California is the new America. We are the new Ellis Island. The new melting pot where creativity still booms brightest.

Despite IBD and other right-wing publications protests, California is still the home of the new economy. We still create the jobs of the future. In the first quarter of 2012, California accounted for nearly half of all venture capital deals. People come here from across the globe to be a a part of this new, exciting future.

They come here for our resources, our people, and yeah, they'd like to see a decent education system for their kids too. We're learning all right, we're learning about the future of America. Perhaps some folks from IBD should come on down and see it for themselves.  

Brian Leubitz :: The Real Demographic Hysteria in California
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True, But There Is Much Evidence to the Contrary (3.33 / 3)
I agree that California is richly blessed by nature and our people.  We SHOULD be a beacon of prosperity and sustainability to the nation and the world.

However, we need to confront reality.  There are real issues confronting California, many of them a direct result of our poorly-run state government.  While some see California as "the oasis of Democratic politics," many don't see our one-party rule as a blessing.

As for our schools, when measured independently and objectively, California's public schools, on average, rank toward the bottom nationally with the likes of Alabama and Mississippi.  Despite near record spending, California's elected leaders decided to allocate spending elsewhere.

Because California's tax scheme is so heavily dependent on top earners, a net out-migration can be a major revenue problem for the state.  Our foolish over-reliance on top earners was a major reason for the dramatic decrease in tax revenues between 2007 and 2009.  Proposition 30 tax hikes were merely more bad public policy and simply horrible tax policy.

Let's objective look at the evidence and work together to help California live up to its potential.

Retiring (5.67 / 3)
With the exception of Texas, everybody I know who has moved to Nevada, Arizona, Oregon, and Washington was retiring and looking for a cheaper place to live. Despite what Soquel Creek thinks, these aren't high-income earners. To the contrary, Mitt Romney just moved here. In the 60 years I've lived here, I've noticed that anybody who can afford to tends to stay.

Despite what IBD thinks, California ranks either sixth or fourth in overall taxes. However, the cost of living is high--even after the recent drops in home prices. Still, our population is not declining. It is getting younger and way less white. And, when we invest in education, we still seem to have plenty of productive citizens

Links? (0.00 / 0)
Could you provide some links about where we stand with overall taxes?  Thanks.

[ Parent ]
USA Today (0.00 / 0)
Smoker, I Googled it and found 2 stories in USA Today about other studies. Will that do in lieu of links?

[ Parent ]
Relax (4.00 / 1)
All my in-laws are Vietnamese boat people
Ethnic Chinese who fled South Vietnam
They all worked hard and bought homes and didn't lose them
ALL the kids went to or are currently attending the University of California
Except for my oldest who's attending SF State for the Teaching program
The immigrants we're getting from overseas are bringing a lot to California

Attend a High School or a College graduation in your area
Most of the kids graduating with honors are East Asian or South Asian

California is Still a magnet
We really need to allow foreign graduates for California universities to stay in the state permanently
Look at who's getting the engineering and hard scienec degrees in this state
East Asians and South Asians

In-Laws huh? (0.00 / 0)
 So you're one of those White Guys that married an Asian Woman huh?

That's like saying your an expert in Asian studies by staying at a Holiday Inn Express.

However -

This is true because contrary to popular belief in White/Latina/Black Woman Land, being a "Geek" won't get you laid. That isn't the case in the Asian communities and other immigrant communities.

So White, Hispanic men and Black men by and large don't enter the engineering and sciences.

You get two outcomes both negative -

Shrinking White Population both from people moving out of the state but at the same time getting married less and having fewer children.

Whites are below replacement rates now (1.8)

On the other hand, because of ratchet behavior in the Black Community you have plenty of children (2.1) but the majority of them are born out of wedlock and into poverty.

Lots of work to do in there areas but there's a partial solution:

We do need to retool our education system, I believe something along the lines of Germany's dual track system where everybody comes out with a degree or a marketable skill.

Germany's GDP is close to ours and their National Unemployment rate is 6% (Its higher in Berlin, like LA is higher than the State average).

We can easily duplicate their system but Americans tend to be arrogant, especially our politicians.


[ Parent ]
Here's the data (3.00 / 2)

Nearly four million more people have left the Golden State in the last two decades than have come from other states. This is a sharp reversal from the 1980s, when 100,000 more Americans were settling in California each year than were leaving. According to Mr. Kotkin, most of those leaving are between the ages of 5 and 14 or 34 to 45. In other words, young families.

I am sure the author of this post has hard evidence that this demographic data re" inter-state population transfers is incorrect.

Actually (0.00 / 0)
Actually we get immigrants from other countries, too
And those immigrants are drawn her by our University system and our high tech industry

Many opeople from other states come here for the high tech industry
Some of them are Aryans

[ Parent ]
Aryans? (0.00 / 0)
Their a Nazi Myth, pure Garbage...

[ Parent ]
Myth (8.00 / 1)
/The Aryan Superman is a myth
Yet some people seem overly concerned about white people leaving California

If you remember the 80's, Governon Pete 'White Power' Wilson made a big deal about Mexican immigration into California

Ut is a myth, byt it still seems alive among some Californians

[ Parent ]
IBD? (0.00 / 0)
Is this the same IBD that claimed Stephen Hawking wouldn't have survived if he'd had to depend on the UK's health care system?  I'm not sure any article in a publication that fails to research its articles any better than that is going to carry a whole lot of weight in my neck of the California woods.

Gateway (5.00 / 1)
It is also the case that at least some of that external movement is because LA is a huge gateway for immigration and people move through on their way to settling elsewhere.  That gives a bloated sense to the movement in and out of the state.  The LAT discusses this in today's paper.


Ironic IBD (0.00 / 0)
Yes, California is so horrible that IBD is headquartered in LA.

People up in arms about this are 99.8% are, wait for it... (0.00 / 0)
 White People, mostly White Males.

California Tax Law is not odious, we have a generous welfare state but it could be easily much more generous and help Middle Class families more which seems strange until you try to apply for benefits.

We could solve much of this BS with a State owned Bank which I know is being considered.

People are leaving because real estate prices are high. Now people listen closely, you can not have high real estate prices, high property values and mobile populations all at the same time.

There was a mass exodus to the Inland Empire and Antelope Valley expressly because of real estate prices under the guise of escaping crime ridden inner city LA.

What we need is modest expectations of real estate values, affordable housing including public housing; Which will allow for a upwardly mobile population.

For both the United States and Europe to solve its aging population problems they will have to embrace more generous programs that encourage child birth and families, along with smart immigration policies.

The US has no problem drawing people here and we should consider ourselves lucky. We just have to do a much better job on the social welfare front and TUNE OUT the Conservatives, Libertarians and so-called Independent voters who are really either Democrats or Republicans who don't want to be pigeon holed and believe they are above the partisanship; COMPLETE BS!


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