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DTS voters continue to shift towards marriage equality support

by: Brian Leubitz

Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 15:45:07 PM PST


Support for marriage equality continues to grow

By Brian Leubitz

My apologies for being away for a while. I've been traveling, and is often the case after traveling, I got sick. So, as I try to ward off this nasty head cold, here's some food for thought on the subject of marriage equality.

As you might remember, we were polling we'll on prop 8 several months before the election. Then the nasty (and untrue) ads about forcing your kids to get married to a gay, or something like that, started appearing. We had no coordinated response, and ultimately that became the story. But in the marriage debate, time is our friend. And as every year passes, the electorate becomes more favorable.

And California's great population of Decline to State voters are moving in the same way.  Last week, the CA League of Conservaition voters released a poll focusing on DTS voters, and the results were quite positive.

By a 2-to-1 margin, three out of five (60 percent)" decline-to-state "voters support allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally, with a resounding 44 percent who strongly support legal avenues to marriage. In contrast, less than a third (30 percent total oppose) oppose legalizing marriage for gay and lesbian couples and less than one out of ten is undecided.

In a July 2009 poll commissioned by Love Honor Cherish, Equality California, Courage Campaign and more than 30 other organizations to determine when to seek repeal of Prop 8, decline-to-state voters favored marriage by 49% with 18% undecided and 33% opposed.(LoveHonorCherish)

Now, to be clear, this is far from conclusive proof of anything. LHC has a ballot measure submitted in Sacramento, and is trying to rally support. However, as of yet, there hasn't been any institutional support for the measure while the legal case is outstanding.  With that case expected to drag on for months/years, it seems unlikely that a consensus will be formed around the November 2012 date for a measure. No matter when it goes on, a ballot measure would be extremeley expensive. Now, that isn't to say that I don't support the concept, because I think we really need to win one at the ballot at some point to give the Supreme Court some courage.

And all the numbers are there, we can win in 2012. But from where we stand right now, we have a lot of work to do before we are ballot ready.

Brian Leubitz :: DTS voters continue to shift towards marriage equality support
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SCOTUS (3.00 / 1)
Love all your writing and reporting Brian, thanks for all that.

As to SCOTUS, they don't need courage, nor will they take it from the 99%, much less the LGBT community.

They only accept power and money, and to persuade them, will take millions and millions in the streets, like it always has for women's right to vote, like it always has for blacks and the end to Jim Crow.

But then, I'm sure you know this. Musta been a typo of somethin I read.

;-)

SCOTUS has (metaphorically) waived Magna Carta, habeus, n pronounced Corporations As Hoomanzz (real) . . . and if pressed, will endorse indefinite rendition for American citizens.

They ain't lacking courage by any means, they are fearless for the rights of the 1% and the corporate fascist fuckers who own this nation and every facet of our lives.

But then, I'm sure you know THAT too . . .

;-)  


The law and the ballot (4.00 / 1)
I like the idea of winning this thing at SCOTUS because it means our laws are just.  But I also like winning at the ballot box because it means we live in a good state (or at least better than most). Both would be nice.

but we need to get people to vote (4.00 / 1)
The problem is that, while the young are strongly for gay marriage, the elderly are strongly against it and the elderly show up in large numbers at the polls while the young do not.

Likewise, aren't DTS voters less likely to show up than those registered to a political party?

Long-term, prospects are good as the bigots will die off.  But I think we need to be very careful about assuming victory based on polls.


General Election (0.00 / 0)
So put a ballot initiative on the November 12 ballot

Voting for Obama doesn't excite me
But, if he's running against Gingrich THAT would bring out the vote
Some of the other Goopers are almost as evil and will bring out voters

A ballot initiative with popular support will bring real legitimacy to the issue

Put this on the 2012 General election ballot !!


[ Parent ]
I wish I could influence the elderly (0.00 / 0)
I'm close to that demographic myself at 62. But I have a hard time believing other boomers like me are against this. Maybe it's time to ask LGBT parents to start speaking out. Maybe it's time for old straight people like me to speak up. Show us saying we're for this. That we don't want friends, neighbors, or anybody else to lack rights we have. That's my stance at least.

I've known some of my gay friends for a long time. One, who married before all this, has been with his husband longer than I was with either of mine. Another has gone through a number of partners over the several decades I've known her. But I could say the same for more than a few of my straight friends too. And she's a loving mother and a good friend. So, please explain to me why her relationships should be different under the law than mine.

Frankly, I'm happy to make that argument to anybody who will listen. If it helps to have my white hair behind it, I'm there!


[ Parent ]
Answer the obvious question Brian! (0.00 / 0)
This CLCV poll has one overarching theme, voters holding liberal positions on key issues like marriage and the environment are leaving the Democratic Party in droves.  Why are so many liberals now DTS instead of D?

Riddle me that Batman.


Brian is... the Batman? I had no idea.... (0.00 / 0)
Bob, aside from the apparent crankiness, I have only 1 issue with your question.... is it based on fact?

Some quick research (fact not opinion) appears to show the following:

2007
Reg. Democrats  6.599 million
Reg. Republicans  5.19
DTS   2.99
Other  0.69
TOTAL  15.47 million

2011
Reg. Democrats  7.6 million
Reg. Republicans  5.3
DTS  3.5
Other  0.8
TOTAL  17.2 million

So the fastest growing voter segment appears to be Other with Democrats next fastest.  Republicans are the laggards here.

Now, if your point is that Liberals are recently (within the past 6 months) being vociferous in their objection to Democratic leadership at the State and Local levels, well, you may have a point.

Robin: "Self-control is sure tough sometimes, Batman!"
Batman: "All virtues are, old chum. Indeed, that's why they're virtues."  


[ Parent ]
not so fast (0.00 / 0)
According to the CLCV numbers DTS has grown from 15% to 20% of the electorate in the last 5 years and according to their poll the majority of these people hold liberal or left of center opinions on major issues like marriage and the environment.  These are clearly people who are leaving or refusing to register with the Democratic Party, and you can slap as much lipstick on that pig as you want, its still a pig.

And I do have a point and thank you for making it for me.  Liberals do have issues with the way the Democratic Party is being run in CA and to whom its leadership is beholden.  Thats the question I'd like Brian to address, given his position of leadership in the party.  


[ Parent ]
Who gets dissed more on talk radio and cable, Dems or Pubs? (0.00 / 0)
If "liberals" are signing up as DTS, it's because they're related to, work with, or otherwise associate with conservatives who feel entitled to publicly regurgitate whatever trash was spewed out the day before by Rush, Sean, Laura, John & Ken and the others.

I'm sure that some progressives have switched from Dem to DTS to punish President Obama for failing to be the "Anti-Bush" they thought they had voted for.

But the general rise in DTS registration has more to do with the poisonous atmosphere created by right-wing noise machine than with party politics.


[ Parent ]
And the greater dislike for parties in general (4.00 / 1)
Not just the right-wing BS, but people generally don't like the 2 parties right now. Dem registration has gone up, but slower than their share of the vote. People generally don't like being ID'd as a partisan, it makes them feel dirty.

But given how they vote, and the results of this poll, I think it is fair to say DTS voters generally lean center-left.

I think?


[ Parent ]
Bravo (0.00 / 0)
I think you hit the nail squarely on the head Brian!  People are disgusted with both parties and the cronyism and special influnce peddling that are destroying them.

I really don't care who or what destroys the GOP, I'm a Democrat and care about my party and why its circling the toilet bowl.  

I used to belong to a party that cared about job creation, about public education and about the little guy. Its now a party, particularly in CA, that dances on the end of public employee union strings and is little more than their legislative wing.

ever try to talk education reform with a Democratic lawmaker in CA, where our schools are the worst in the nation,?  HA...you might as well call the CTA and cut out the middle man.  The California Democratic Party doesn't care about the kids in our schools, they only care about the teachers unions and their money.  Same goes for just aboout every other facet of public life in this state.

When it comes to job creation and putting people in hard hats, the California Democratic Party cares more about the opinions of Malibu dwelling multi millionaire wannabee environmental champions than the millions of unemployed construction workers in this state. If you try to talk to a california Democratic lawmaker about CEQA reform, you'll get the Environmental Defense manifesto thrown at you....not to mention the billions of dollars the trial bar make from CEQA litigation every year.

I'm probably going to jump ship myself and register DTS.  The Democratic Party I once believed in no longer exists.


[ Parent ]
I don't think that Democratic Party ever existed. (4.00 / 1)
Why not register Republican? Your anti-union, anti-environmental, anti-trial-lawyer views are welcome there. Are you struggling with the old "social liberal / fiscal conservative" conundrum?

btw... less than one percent of California projects face CEQA lawsuits (L.A. Times 11/14/11). Did you really mean to say "billions of dollars"? Or were you just misquoting Sen. Bob Dutton (R-Rancho Cucamonga) who said in 2007 that "...billions of dollars [of bond financed projects] approved by the voters" were at risk to CEQA lawsuits?

Your concern for the Democratic Party doesn't sound very sincere.


[ Parent ]
big tent? (0.00 / 0)
What happened to the big tent Democratic party? I guess if you don't pass the "union comes first" purity test you aren't welcome.

I support collective bargaining and everyone's right to join a union, but public unions should not write or dictate public policy...which is exactly what happens in CA.

I support environmental protections but people live here too and the smug middle class and wealthy eco jihadists who dicatate environmental policy in Sacramento don't give a rat's ass about poor unemployed people so long as they have nice parks to drive their Volvo SUVs to and nice ski resorts to hang out in and beautifil views from the Malibu bluffs or the slopes of Mount Tamalpais.

Call me a populist or a Reagan Democrat if you will, but you cannot deny that the Democratic Party in CA is not controlled by wealthy narrow interests and it is no longer a party of the people.


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