Lloyd Levine enters race for Senate in the 23rd

Term limits (0.00 / 0)

*This* is what term limits do. Everybody plays musical chairs.

And Levine sure as hell won't be the only one running for SD-23. Expect outgoing Members of the Assembly Fran Pavley (D-Agoura Hills) and Paul Koretz (D-West Hollywood), or even newly minted members Julia Brownley (D-Santa Monica) and Mike Feuer (D-West L.A.).

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by: Nathaniel, Burbank native @ Mon Nov 20, 2006 at 21:34:58 PM UTC

Looking ahead (8.00 / 1)

These are the Senate races in 2008:

District 1 - Dave Cox (R-Fair Oaks)
District 3 - Carole Migden (D-San Francisco)

District 5 OPEN - Mike Machado (D-Linden) term-limited. This may be tough for the Dems to hold. We need outgoing Assemblywoman Barbara Matthews of Tracy to run.

District 7 OPEN - Tom Torlakson (D-Antioch) term-limited. Easy hold.
District 9 OPEN - Don Perata (D-Oakland) term-limited. Even easier hold.
District 11 - Joe Simitian (D-Palo Alto)
District 13 - Elaine Alquist (D-Santa Clara)
District 15 - Abel Maldonado (R-Santa Maria)
District 17 - George Runner (R-Lancaster)
District 19 OPEN - Tom McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks) is finally term-limited. A multiple-time statewide loser, he'll probably for Congress in CD-24 with Elton Gallegly retiring. Unfortunately, he'll win that, and a GOPer will win here too.
District 21 OPEN - Jack Scott (D-Pasadena) term-limited. I was raised here, and there are some talented people here. Could it be Dario Frommer? Newly-minted Assemblymen Paul Krekorian and Anthony Portantino?
District 23 OPEN - Sheila Kuehl (D-Los Angeles) term-limited. You know the deal here.
District 25 OPEN - Edward Vincent (D-Inglewood) term-limited. Probably outgoing Assemblyman Jerome Horton here.
District 27 - Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach)
District 29 - OPEN Bob Margett (R-Arcadia) term-limited. Some bet on the ever-articulate (not) outgoing Assm. Dennis Mountjoy here.
District 31 - Bob Dutton (R-Rancho Cucamonga)
District 33 - OPEN Dick Ackerman (R-Fullerton) term-limited. Lynn Daucher has a second chance! (This time running in her actual home district)
District 35 - Tom Harman (R-Huntington Beach). BTW, is he term-limited in 2012 or 2016? I can't figure it out.
District 37 - OPEN Jim Battin (R-La Quinta) term-limited. John Benoit is conveniently termed out of the Assembly at the same time.
District 39 - Christine Kehoe (D-San Diego)

So as usual, there is an extreme dearth of competition. Of the 10 open Senate seats, only 1 (Machado's seat) will probably be competitive, just like in 2006. In most of these districts, primaries decide everything. Democrats probably won't gain anything barring a major surprise (like a strong challenger to Abel Maldonado), and Republican's only real chance is for Machado's seat.

Get ready for another election with NOT A SINGLE PARTY TURNOVER IN THE ENTIRE LEGISLATURE.

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by: Nathaniel, Burbank native @ Mon Nov 20, 2006 at 21:47:23 PM UTC

RE: SD 33 (0.00 / 0)

So, do ya think that Lynn might give it another try, this time in her own (ahem!) district? I dunno, but if she dos run here, I might actually root for her... Heck, a not-so-conservative GOPer is much better than a wingnut firebreather (like Ackerman, or possible successors Todd Spitzer and Chuck DeVore). Now in my district (SD 34), I'm glad that Lou won because I want to keep Central OC blue... However in uber-red SD 33, a not-so-conservative GOPer might be the best that we can hope for (at least, for now).

Had enough of the "red county" right-wing crazy-talk bulls***? Well, then come and visit us at The Liberal OC! Yes, there ARE liberals in The OC! : )

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by: Andrew Davey (atdleft) @ Mon Nov 20, 2006 at 22:54:29 PM UTC

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Will she stay moderate in 33? (0.00 / 0)

There's only so right-wing you can really get in 34 and hope to win.  Will she move right if she were to decide to run next door?

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by: Leighton Woodhouse @ Mon Nov 20, 2006 at 23:30:34 PM UTC

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CA-24 is a Cook R+5 district (0.00 / 0)

Dems won several seats in 2006 that were at a greater disadvantage.  Many of them have an asterick of course (i.e. Delay's TX-22, Sherwood's PA-10) due to corruption, but some do not.  For example, look at Indiana, where our 3 pickups were R+4, R+7, and R+9.  We needn't give up on CA-24.

here's the Cook report on 2006 (PDF): http://www.cookpolit...

Now, Tom McClintock is a strong candidate, as he showed in almost upsetting Garamendi.  However, Garamendi was a fairly weak candidate.  We need to start grooming a candidate for this race.  Perhaps the DCCC will find a candidate, but as we've seen there is no reason to trust the DCCC to pick the right candidates.

Jill Martinez is an interesting woman I'm sure, but I'm not convinced that she would be able to match firepower with McClintock.  Anybody have any ideas?

I think?

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by: Brian Leubitz @ Tue Nov 21, 2006 at 01:11:04 AM UTC

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McClintock overperforms (0.00 / 0)

McClintock was able to hold onto a Dem-leaning Assembly district for a full 3 terms in the '90s. He also, as you mentioned, came very close to beating Garamendi in an awful year for Republicans (though admittedly he may have benefitted from Ahnoldt).

Still, McClintock always does better than your average GOPer. He came within a hair of Controller in 2002, and came in third for Governor in '03. I really don't see how he could be beaten in a GOP-leaning, traditionally suburban and conservative district. Even before redistricting in 2001-02 saved all the incumbents in the state, he would have had a better than 50% chance of winning Gallegly's then-more competitive district.

I say if he wants CA-24, it's his. And I'm positive Gallegly will retire, since he wanted to this year and only held back because of the whole legal messup with the filing deadline.

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by: Nathaniel, Burbank native @ Tue Nov 21, 2006 at 05:29:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]