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Conservatives, Communication and Coalitions

by: Robert Cruickshank

Sun May 22, 2011 at 09:22:10 AM PDT


The latest round of argument within the progressive coalition over the Obama Administration - touched off by Cornel West's scathing criticism - has generated a lot of heated discussion. Most of it seems to simply repeat the same arguments that have been played out over the last two years: Obama is a sellout, Obama is doing the best he can, you're not being fair to him, he's not being fair to us. Leaving aside for this article the personality issues at play here, what's really going on is a deeper fracture over the progressive coalition. Namely, whether one exists at all.

Whenever these contentious arguments erupt, a common response from progressives is to bemoan the "circular firing squad" and point to the right, where this sort of self-destructive behavior is rarely ever seen. Instead, the right exhibits a fanatic message discipline that would have made the Politburo envious. Grover Norquist holds his famous "Wednesday meetings" where right-wing strategy and message are coordinated. Frank Luntz provides the talking points, backed by his research. And from there, and from numerous other nodes in the right-wing network, the message gets blasted out. Conservatives dutifully repeat the refrain, which becomes a cacophony that generates its own political force. Republicans ruthlessly use that message, that agenda, to shift the nation's politics to the right, even as Americans themselves remain on the center-left of most issues.

(more over the flip)

Robert Cruickshank :: Conservatives, Communication and Coalitions
"Can't we be more like them?" ask these progressives who understandably grow tired of the Obama wars. The conservatives' disciplined communications strategy typically gets ascribed to one of these factors. Some see it as an inherent feature of their ideology - the right is hierarchical, the left is anarchic. (Of course, the 20th century Communist movement disproved that.) Others see it as an inherent feature of their brains - conservatives are said to have an "authoritarian" brain where everything is black and white and where values and ideas are simply accepted from a higher-up, whereas liberals have brains that see nuance and prize critical thinking, making them predisposed to squabble instead of unite. And still others just see the conservatives as being smarter, knowing not to tear each other down, with the implication that progressives who engage in these bruising internal battles simply don't know any better, or are so reckless as not to care.

Perhaps some of those factors are all at work. But I want to argue that the truth is far simpler. Conservatives simply understand how coalitions work, and progressives don't. Conservative communication discipline is enabled only by the fact that everyone in the coalition knows they will get something for their participation. A right-winger will repeat the same talking points even on an issue he or she doesn't care about or even agree with because he or she knows that their turn will come soon, when the rest of the movement will do the same thing for them.

Progressives do not operate this way. We spend way too much time selling each other out, and way too little time having each other's back. This is especially true within the Democratic Party, where progressives share a political party with another group of people - the corporate neoliberals - who we disagree with on almost every single issue of substance. But within our own movement, there is nothing stopping us from exhibiting the same kind of effective messaging - if we understood the value of coalitions.

A coalition is an essential piece of political organizing. It stems from the basic fact of human life that we are not all the same. We do not have the same political motivations, or care about the same issues with equal weight. Some people are more motivated by social issues, others by economic issues. There is plenty of overlap, thanks to share core values of equality, justice, and empathy. But in a political system such as ours, we can't do everything at once. Priorities have to be picked, and certain issues will come before others.

How that gets handled is essential to an effective political movement. If one part of the coalition gets everything and the other parts get nothing, then the coalition will break down as those who got nothing will get unhappy, restive, and will eventually leave. Good coalitions understand that everyone has to get their issue taken care of, their goals met - in one way or another - for the thing to hold together.

Conservatives understand this implicitly. The Wednesday meeting is essentially a coalition maintenance session, keeping together what could be a fractious and restive movement. Everyone knows they will get their turn. Why would someone who is primarily motivated by a desire to outlaw abortion support an oil company that wants to drill offshore? Because the anti-choicers know that in a few weeks, the rest of the coalition will unite to defund Planned Parenthood. And a few weeks after that, everyone will come together to appease Wall Street and the billionaires by fighting Elizabeth Warren. And then they'll all appease the US Chamber by fighting to break a union.

There are underlying values that knit all those things together, common threads that make the communications coherent. But those policies get advanced because their advocates work together to sell the narrative.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is primarily a fiscal conservative. So why would he attack domestic partner benefits? New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is not an anti-science zealot. So why would he refuse to say if he believes in evolution or creationism? Former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger supported marriage equality and refused to defend Prop 8 in court. So why did he twice veto a bill passed by the state legislature to veto marriage equality?

The answer to the above is simple: because they knew the importance of keeping the coalition together. They know that each part has to be looked after, or else the thing will fall apart as different constituencies turn on the person who failed to advance their agenda.

Members of the conservative coalition do not expect to get everything all at once. An anti-choice advocate would love to overturn Roe v. Wade tomorrow. But they don't get angry when that doesn't happen in a given year. Not because they are self-disciplined and patient, but because they get important victories year after year that move toward that goal. One year it could be a partial-birth abortion ban. The next year it could be defunding of Planned Parenthood. The year after that it could be a ban on any kind of federal funding of abortions, even indirect. (And in 2011, they're getting some of these at the same time.)

More importantly, they know that even if their issue doesn't get advanced in a given year, they also know that the other members of the coalition will not allow them to lose ground. If there's no way to further restrain abortion rights (Dems control Congress, the voters repeal an insane law like South Dakota's attempt to ban abortion), fine, the conservative coalition will at least fight to ensure that ground isn't lost. They'll unite to fight efforts to rescind a partial-birth abortion ban, or add new funding to Planned Parenthood. Those efforts to prevent losses are just as important to holding the coalition together as are the efforts to achieve policy gains.

Being in the conservative coalition means never having to lose a policy fight - or if you do lose, it won't be because your allies abandoned you.

This is where the real contrast with the progressive and Democratic coalitions lies. Within the Democratic Party, for example, members of the coalition are constantly told it would be politically reckless to advance their goals, or that they have to give up ground previously won. The implicit message to that member of the coalition is that they don't matter as much, that their goals or values are less important. That's a recipe for a weak and ineffectual coalition.

There are lots of examples to illustrate the point. If someone is primarily motivated to become politically active because they oppose war, then telling them to support bombing of Libya in order to be part of the coalition is never, ever going to work. If someone was outraged by torture policies under President Bush, you'll never get them to believe that torture is OK when President Obama orders it. If someone is motivated by taking action on climate change, then Democrats should probably pass a climate bill instead of abandoning it and instead promoting coal and oil drilling. If someone supports universal health care and wants insurance companies out of the picture, you need to at least give them something (like a public option) if you're going to otherwise mandate Americans buy private insurance.

The LGBT rights movement offered an excellent example of this. For his first two years in office, not only did President Obama drag his feet on advancing LGBT rights goals, he actively began handing them losses, such as discharging LGBT soldiers under the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy or having his Justice Department file briefs in support of the Defense of Marriage Act. Obama argued that he could not advance the policy goals of DADT or DOMA repeal, but even if that were true, he was breaking up his coalition by also handing the LGBT rights movement losses on things like discharges and defending DOMA. It was only when LGBT organizations, activists, and donors threatened to leave the Obama coalition that the White House finally took action to end DADT.

A good coalition recognizes that not everyone is there for the same reason. The "Obama wars" online tend to happen because its participants do not recognize this fact. For a lot of progressives and even a lot of Democrats, re-electing President Obama is not the reason they are in politics. And if Obama has been handing them losses, then appealing to them on the basis of "Obama's doing the best he can" or "the GOP won't let him go further" is an argument that they'll find insulting. This works in reverse. If someone believes that Obama is a good leader, or that even if he isn't perfect he's better than any alternative (especially a Republican alternative) then they won't react well to a criticism of Obama for not attending to this or that progressive policy matter.

Cornel West has basically argued that he is leaving the Obama coalition because Obama turned his back on West's agenda. That's a legitimate reaction, whether you agree or not with the words West used to describe what happened. Cornel West won't sway someone whose primarily political motivation is to defend Obama if he calls Obama a "black mascot" and an Obama defender won't sway Cornel West if they're telling West that he's wrong to expect Obama to deliver on his agenda.

The bigger problem is that it is very difficult to successfully maintain a coalition in today's Democratic Party. Michael Gerson has identified something I have been arguing for some time - that the Democratic Party is actually two parties artificially melded together. I wrote about this in the California context last fall - today's Democratic Party has two wings to it. One wing is progressive, anti-corporate, and distrusts the free market. The other wing is neoliberal, pro-corporate, and trusts the free market.

These two wings have antithetical views on many, many things. Neoliberals believe that privatization of public schools is a good idea. Progressives vow to fight that with every bone in their body. Neoliberals believe that less regulation means a healthier economy. Progressives believe that we are in a severe recession right now precisely because of less regulation. Neoliberals believe that corporate power is just fine, progressives see it as a threat to democracy.

The only reason these two antithetical groups share a political party is because the Republicans won't have either one. The neoliberals tend to be socially liberal - they support civil unions or outright marriage equality, don't hate immigrants, and know that we share a common ancestor with the chimps. 35 years ago they might have still had a place in the Republican Party, but in the post-Reagan era, they don't. So they came over to the Democrats, who after 1980 were happy to have as many votes as possible - and whose leaders were uneasy at the growing ranks of dirty hippies among the party base.

As to those progressives, destroying their values and institutions is the reason today's GOP exists, so they clearly can't go to that party. They don't have the money to completely dominate the Democratic Party. Neither do they have the money to start their own political party, and right now they don't want to, given the widespread belief that Ralph Nader cost Al Gore the 2000 election and led to the Bush disaster.

To our north, the neoliberals and progressives do have their own parties. The Canadian election earlier this month gave Conservatives a majority, but it also gave a historic boost to the New Democratic Party, home of Canada's progressives, while the Liberal Party, home of Canada's neoliberals, lost half their seats. Those parties have an easier time holding together their coalitions, and that enabled the NDP to break through and become the party that is poised to take power at the next election once Canadians react against Stephen Harper's extremist agenda.

Still, for a variety of structural, financial, and practical reasons most American progressives are not yet ready to go down the path of starting their own party. And that makes mastery of coalition politics even more important.

Cornel West needlessly personalized things. He would have been on stronger ground had he pointed out, correctly, that Obama has not done a good job of coalition politics. Progressives have not only failed to advance much of their agenda, but are increasingly being told to accept rollbacks, which as we've seen doesn't happen on the other side and is key to holding conservatism together as an effective political force. Obama told unions to accept a tax increase on their health benefits, and promptly lost his filibuster-proof majority in the US Senate in the Massachusetts special election. While Republicans are facing a big political backlash for actually turning on members of their coalition - for the first time in a long time - by proposing to end Medicare, Obama risks alienating more of his coalition by promoting further austerity. Civil libertarians have seen loss after loss under Obama (which explains clearly why Glenn Greenwald does not feel any need to defend Obama). Obama has consistently sided with the banks and has done nothing to help homeowners facing foreclosure. Hardly anybody has been prosecuted for the crimes and fraud at the heart of Wall Street during the 2000s boom.

There's no doubt that any Democratic president faces a difficult task in holding together a political coalition made up of two groups - progressives and neoliberals - who distrust each other and are in many ways fighting each other over the basic economic issues facing this country. But Obama has not made much effort to keep progressives on his side. He halfheartedly advocated for their goals, did some things to roll back progressive gains and values, and expects progressives to remain in the coalition largely out of fear of a Republican presidency. That's a legitimate reason to stay, don't get me wrong. But it won't work for everybody, and nobody should be surprised when some progressives walk. Everyone has their limit.

It has been clear that Obama is of the neoliberal wing of the Democratic Party. He always was (and so too was Hillary Clinton). It's far easier for a neoliberal Democrat to win over just enough progressives to gain the party presidential nomination than vice-versa. Progressives are debating amongst themselves whether it makes sense to stay in that coalition if the terms are, as they have been since the late 1970s, subservience to a neoliberal agenda. I do not expect that debate to end anytime soon.

What we can do - and what we must do - is ensure that within the progressive coalition, we DO practice good coalitional behavior. If we are going to stay inside the Democratic Party, then we have to overcome the neoliberal wing. To do that, we have to be a disciplined and effective coalition. And to do that, we have to have each other's back. We have to attend to each other's needs. We have to recognize that everyone who wants to be in the coalition has a legitimate reason to be here, and has legitimate policy goals. If we have different goals - if Person A cares most about ending the death penalty, if Person B cares most about reducing carbon emissions, and if Person C cares most about single-payer health care, we have to make sure everyone not only gets their turn, but also make sure that each does not have to suffer a loss at our hands. If we find that we have goals that are in conflict, then we have to resolve that somehow.

One thing is clear: no coalition has ever succeeded with one part telling the other that their values are flawed, that they are wrong to want what they want, that they are wrong to be upset when they don't get something. We are not going to change people's values, and we should not make doing so the price of admission to a coalition. Unless we want to. In which case we have to accept the political consequences. I'd be happy to say we will never, and must never, coalition with neoliberals. But that has political consequences that many other progressives find unacceptable.

If we are going to address the severe crisis that is engulfing our country, we need to become better at building and maintaining coalitions. That means we have to decide who we want in the coalition, how we will satisfy their needs, and what price to maintain the coalition is too high to pay. Those are necessary, even essential political practices. It's time we did that, rather than beating each other over the head for not seeing things exactly the way we do ourselves.

Only then will be become the disciplined and effective operation that we want.

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Coalitions (0.00 / 0)
  It is a lot easier to maintain a coalition if you have the financial means to enforce your orthodoxy.  David Frum violated that and was removed from the teat--now he's eeking out a living with a website.  

Guilty as charged (4.00 / 1)
I think I'm guilty as charged
I consider myself a progressive

I'm anti monopoly, pro anti-trust enforcement, pro-progressive taxation, anti-military and anti-imperialist, pro-marriage equality, pro women's rights
and pro environmental and consumer rights

But, I must admit I consider the anti-Death penalty people soft on crime
I have real problems with 'welfare rights'
And the tactic of trying to push change through law suits

Almost all the Democratic Presidential candidates since LBJ have been DLC (Democratic Leadership council) wannabes (except McGovern and he was a total waste)
I do think Clinton and Gore sold us out with NAFTA and 'Free Trade' and De-Regulation

What is to be done ??
Become a better 'Team Player'/'Coalition member' ??


I'm a bit mixed, Dad was a Repub & Mom a Democrat (0.00 / 0)
I'm anti-monopoly(strange that I like the Parker Bros game though), pro anti-trust enforcement, pro-progressive taxation, anti-military on wasteful spending(I like effective spending), pro-equal rights and pro-environmental and pro-consumer rights.

As to Welfare, Sure I'm disabled, I almost feel like Mr Freeze in Batman at times, As I feel like I'm melting from doing the smallest of things and My joints don't like too much activity after I'd broken a leg & dislocated a hip and this wasn't something I'd wanted do, So I'm reduced to existing on Supplemental Security Income which Repubs in power seem hell bent on reducing, capping and exterminating, Can You say War on the Disabled?

Some might say and someone once did to My face, Don't You get Food Stamps? I said No one who gets SSI in CA gets Food Stamps(SNAP benefits) cause of a USDA/SSA Embargo cause of a CA policy known as Cash Out which CA won't rescind or repeal.

I still want to get a mortgage to a house with No Steps as My Right Knee does not like climbing anymore. And right now My only hope is the funding of the Section 502 USDA Rural Low income Direct Mortgage which will do the job and would be cheaper than renting... Some things that the 502 page lists aren't done anymore like repairs and the USDA won't fix their web page. The President wants to almost defund this worthy money making section 502 program(PDF), Making It go from about $1.2 Billion to about $211 Million for 2012, this program can actually help shrink the debt, Please call Your Senator and ask them to fully fund this program...

Oh and both were skinny and both worked all their lives until they retired, Me I just started having problems with My weight after the leg broke, I slipped and fell...


Coalition (5.00 / 2)
This is a brilliant post. There are only two things I would add:

(1) The GOP coalition is more at odds with each other than you suggest. There are at least two major factions. The industrialists are the people that have been Republicans since the party was formed. The other group are the ex-Dixiecrats who have a social agenda. These two groups were blood enemies as recently as 100 years ago--you could argue until the 60s.

If these two groups can get along, there is no reason that the two factions of the Dems disagree, especially since it is primarily on economic issues where they disagree. Those issues tend to be zero-sum, but are easier to negotiate.

(2) The reason this can work is because Democrats are different than Republicans. Saying they are the same is the kind of factless crap that Republicans peddle. The problem isn't that they are the same. The problem is that what they have in common.

The establishment of the Democratic party agrees with the Republican establishment on trade, mostly on taxation, on market regulation, and just generally on economic issues. And the differences on foreign policy varies intra-party in both parties. Dennis Kucinich and Pat Buchanan might on not fighting certain wars, but other strange bedfellows might agree.

But things like DADT repeal matter--at least to me. Yes, it took some heavy lifting to get it from Obama, but we got it. By your own point about not losing ground, you never would get it from a Republican president.

Honestly, though I agree that the surrendering of economic issues to the Republican/Neo-liberal consensus has moved us to the right on all issues and that has to change.


DADT (0.00 / 0)
Yes, I'm glad the President repealed DADT too, We shouldn't be disposing of Troops/Sailors who are able to serve, To do so is stupid & short sighted to Me, As It takes money to train replacements.

[ Parent ]
steamship time (4.50 / 2)
similar thoughts from Chris Bertram at Crooked Timber:


In short, calls like Hutton's are hopeless because the differences of policy and principle at the heart of the so-called left are now so deep that an alliance is all but unsustainable. That might look like a bad thing, but I'm not so sure. Assuming that what we care about is to change the way the world is, the elite, quasi-neoliberal "left" has a spectacular record of failure since the mid 1970s. This goes for the US as well, where Democratic adminstrations (featuring people such as Larry Summers in key roles) have done little or nothing for ordinary people. Given the failures of that current, there is less reason than ever for the rest of us to line up loyally behind them for fear of getting something worse.

You say Cornel West needlessly personalized things. He would have been on stronger ground had he pointed out, correctly, that Obama has not done a good job of coalition politics.

Obama is fine at coalition politics. You are not in his coalition. It's like TV - you're the product, you're not the client.

And as to West - "on stronger ground" with who, for what? It might have been more comfortable for you, maybe, but nobody who disagrees would have been persuaded by softer tones or "reasonableness".

The point of this article seems to be about how "progressives" (whatever that means) should at least be better at being a coalition within their own boundaries. But all your examples and all your details seem to me to be about relations outside those boundaries. You make allusions to something that maybe people you know might recognize, I think. But what, exactly, are you concerned about? What is an example of bad coalition keeping on the left? Not between the neolibs and the left, because they have never had any intention of treating the left as equals, whatever they tell you or themselves. But within the left.

If you see arguments about West as happening within the left, then we have a very different concept of what that means.


Coalitions (0.00 / 0)
This is an old debate and I disagree completely with your analysis and in fact think you are talking about the Democratic Party's greatest strength.  

Everyone has seen at the national level that we have lost Presidential elections after Gene McCarthy and Bobby Kennedy challenged an incumbent President and did the same when Ted Kennedy ran against Carter.   You have also had Bill Bradley running against Al Gore and clearly all of these challenges hurt Democrats in the general election.

But there were also benefits to each of those challenges. Most forget that in the early 60's, moderate Republicans were just as strong as conservatives and many thought after the Goldwater debacle that they could take their party back.  But stopping the Viet Nam War was the defining issue for most people in the 60's and the challenges brought young voters and new life to our party.  At the time, Republican leaders pressured candidates like Rockefeller and Romney who opposed the war not to make it too big an issue and divide the party.  We lost a battle and it hurt, but I think we have won more since because of the challenge. Same with the rest of them and that is more true at the Congressional and legislative level where challenges can motivate new activists and are often the lifeblood of grassroots politics.  

For Democrats whom like Mr. West disagree with the President on issues like the war in Afghanistan, they know that all they have to do to change things is beat him in the primary process and I think that stops most of them from joining third parties or just quitting on the system.   If you have a belief that is unpopular right now, you have a process where you can change things.  On the other hand, if you are a registered Republican and torn between the parties, you have virtually no influence becauae the tradition in that party is to discourage challenges and disagreements.  They argue to their members that since they are the minority they can't afford a split, but I would suggest that they lose voters who are undecided because they know as Republicans they will never be able to change anything, but as Democrats there is a history of being able to do so.      


"they know as Republicans they will never be able to change anything" (0.00 / 0)
I guess the Log Cabin Republicans didn't get the memo, as their big thing is changing the party from within.

[ Parent ]
Losers (0.00 / 0)
Hard to fathom that "losing general elections" is seen as no big deal.  Nothing could be further from the truth.

Gene McCarthy cost Hubert Humphrey the election.  The result was Richard Nixon, thousands killed in Vietnam, Watergate and more.  Ralph Nader cost Al Gore the election (Bill Bradley didn't take votes from Gore in Florida). The result was GW Bush, a right-wing Supreme Court that will haunt us for generations, trillions of dollars and thousands of lives in Iraq, and more.

Honest debate is one thing and it can be good for the party and for the country. But when it becomes destructive, i.e., "I'd rather sit home and let (Nixon, Bush, Palin) win than support (Humphrey, Gore, Obama), it brings great harm to our country. Those of us who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

What Vince Lombardi said about football is equally true of politics: "Winning isn't everything; it's the only thing."


[ Parent ]
HUH ?? (0.00 / 0)
Lying Al Gore cost Ralph Nader the Election !!

We are probably BETTER OFF That Lying Al LOST the election
Can you imagine Joe Lieberman as VP ??

Slick Willie and Lying Al SOLD US OUT ON NAFTA and 'Free' Trade (sic)
THEY de-regulated the banks and Wall Street (see Gramm-Leach-Bliley)

If Bill Clinton hadn't been elected, NAFTA would have failed because Democrats wouldn't have been obligated to 'Support the Party Leader'
Was Clinton's election in 19992 good or bad ???

I've given up on Obama
He managed to 'save' Wall Street and the Big Banks
But, he never got around to helping Main Street and the poor suckers with lousy mortgages or those of us whose 401Ks were tied to the Wall Street melt down
He never got around to ending Tax Cuts for the Rich

Barack SUCKS !!!

Sorry, I'm a BAD Democrat  


[ Parent ]
Wonderful! (0.00 / 0)
Thanks a bunch, Frisco. We'll remember this in 2012, when you sit home on election day, cost President Obama reelection and welcome Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich to the White House. That'll teach him, eh? Doesn't matter what happens to the country for eight more years of right-wing rule. BAD hardly begins to describe you.

[ Parent ]
HUH ?? (0.00 / 0)
If St. Barack loses in 2012....
Maybe it will be because HE DIDN'T DELIVER for his supporters
Maybe he left his supporters disillusioned
Will that be my fault or Barack's ?

I was a strong supporter of Obama during the primaries and general election
(after switching allegiances from John Edwards)
But, face it, this guy is a loser
Weak, Cowardly, Ineffectual

Maybe that will lose him the election

WHAT responsibilites do politicians have to their constituencies ?

We're feeling the effects of NAFTA/Free Trade and de-regulation right now
Were we supposed to smile during the Clinton years ?
and ignore the sell out of Labor and those stains on the blue dress ??
Remember 'new, high paying jobs' ?
Where are they ?? What happened to them ??

Were we obligated to vote for Clinton's re-election ?
and for Lying Al, too ???


[ Parent ]
i think we can dispense with the idea (5.00 / 2)
that one voter in san francisco not voting for obama will decide the 2012 election. if he's that far down in california, there's no way he'd win nationally anyways.

[ Parent ]
Electoral College is Extremely Undemocratic (5.00 / 1)
I agree.  For the presidency, our votes will not make a difference -- if California's vote is close, then the national vote won't be, and if the national vote is close, California will be solidly blue.

Campaign stop in California (and about 30 other states) are purely for fundraising and maybe coat-tailling.

I've been eligible to vote in 8 presidential elections, yet at no time have I lived in a state where my vote would be meaningful.


[ Parent ]
1968 (0.00 / 0)
Actually, Sirhan Sirhan cost Bobby Kennedy the election.  He'd have beaten Nixon fairly handily.  (Although it is interesting to question whether or not RFK and JFK would have been in the progressive coalition or neo-liberal coalition...  Despite Vietnam, LBJ implemented the Great Society.)

Mayor Daley probably did as much to cost Humphrey and the Democrats the election as McCarthy.  I remember reading the Walker Report after that convention.  I'd argue that the "police riot," and "gestapo tactics" (Abe Ribicoff, in the nomination speech for George McGovern, said, "with George McGovern as President of the United States, we wouldn't have Gestapo tactics in the streets of Chicago.") were as much of a problem as McCarthy's candidacy.

1968 was my political awakening -- I was too young to understand politics in 1964, but my liberalism was forged in the fires of 1968.


[ Parent ]
Would you re-post this diary on DailyKos? (0.00 / 0)
I know a bunch of folks over there (of both basic persuasions) who really need to see this.

Thanks for posting it.


Evidence of a Failed Coalition (0.00 / 0)
Nothing could have been clearer than last year's failure with Prop 21.

In this progressive coalition, you have at least those whose primary focus is

  • Civil Liberties
  • Environment
  • LGBT Rights
  • Minority Rights
  • Unions/Workers Rights
  • Women's Rights

(I am sure I missed some -- I apologize.)

When one hears that one of these members of the coalition voted strongly against Prop-21, how do you convince Environmentalists to sacrifice and support a policy that the other coalition member wants?


Prop 21 (0.00 / 0)
That was the 2010 prop 21 not the 2000 one right?  

Man I hate the proposition numbering system


[ Parent ]
2010 (0.00 / 0)
Yep -- last year was 2010! ;-)

[ Parent ]
lol (0.00 / 0)
thanks I read that first line too fast.

Who was the big opponent to the $18?


[ Parent ]
Based on the results (0.00 / 0)
Los Angeles County had 56.5% vote against, and that county is 48% Hispanic.  While it is possible that more detailed analysis would show that the minority vote was in favor of the parks, I don't think that is likely.  Only Prop 23 had a higher negative vote in Los Angeles County.

A poster here had a hypothesis that explained that vote last year:

http://www.calitics.com/showCo...

Whether this is correct, I don't know, as I didn't do or see exit polling.


[ Parent ]
Ah (0.00 / 0)
I see now.  Didn't they also say Latinos voted for Prop 8 as well?   Thats the tricky thing about the Latino vote - if their voting patterns stay - they are fiscally liberal but socially conservative.  Americans are generalized as fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

So its often odd that the Left embraces latinos assuming they will morph into left-leaning Americans. Meanwhile the right rejects them though their numbers would actually boost socially (religiously) conservative causes.  

Granted this is a generalization, but if this holds historians will shake their head as to why the social left shot themselves in the foot by defending a socially conservative ethnic group. Likewise why the old, white GOP preferred to fade into obscurity when they could have boosted numbers by adopting a group that is racially white but only ethnically classed as hispanic.

strange bedfellows indeed.  


[ Parent ]
Defending Immigrants (0.00 / 0)
I'm not a historian, but generally immigrant populations have tended to be more conservative, have they not?  At least, when I think of the large migration of Irish Catholics in the early 19th Century, or the migrations from Italy, these populations have tended to be socially conservative.  The older conservative Democratic Party of that day wasn't overjoyed to accept them.

Yet the liberals of the day still fought for their rights.  And even though I'm peeved with the Prop 8 and Prop 21 votes, I'll still fight for their rights, and hope that as they become more mainstreamed into California's society, they'll see the benefits of the socially liberal lifestyle.


[ Parent ]
Prop 5 (0.00 / 0)
Actually 58% of African Americans voted for Prop 8
and 59% of Latinos voted for Prop 8

Contrasted to the 67% of those 65 asnd older who voted Yes
and the 81% of Republicans who did

Actually, the determining factor in yes votes tended to be party, age and Religosity
Fundamentalists tended to vote yes

Blacks and Latinos may be getting a bad rap
(though 58% and 59% are pretty glaring)


[ Parent ]
maybe (0.00 / 0)
I don't think I know that much eaither. But I think social politics was a lot different back then. Of course if you consider abolition the social hot-button issue of the day then I think the immigrants were socially conservative but the Democrats were as well. The GOP were the liberals and its base was the industrialists and the established WASPs who tended to be liberal on abolition (aren't they still the social liberals???)

I don't know if the liberals of the day fought for their rights though.  Irish need not apply was common, the Tammaney machine gave jobs to minorities but that was a democratic/conservatove party thing. There was no visa situation then and immigrants were heavily exploited by the industrialists (who were the abolitionists/liberals then right?).  Then the Wilson presidency wasn't known for its minority rights (bring segregation to DC offices of all places).

So I don't think immigrants and liberals came together until the FDR/JFK Liberal coalition - when the democrats cleaved the southern block but still retained the NE immigrant part of the party and the NE liberal elite took over the leadership (starting with FDR).  But I only know some general parts of US history not the nuances.

either way great discussion


[ Parent ]
great post Robert (8.00 / 1)
But I think there are some other factors at work.

*) Structurally. As Attorney At Arms pointed out the GOP is Industrialists and ex-Dixiecrats. So the GOP has this Business core and then for every other issue it co-ops the most motivated group. Before Nixon's Southern Stratgy the GOP was the Socially liberal party (slowly erroded by FDR, JFK, LBJ).  The business core basically adopted a new bulk of ground pounders to keep the party going. Its more patronage than coalition.

For the Democrats its more tribal (Chieftains and the Church is a great read).  Everyone in the Democratic Party gets a vote and everyone believes they have a veto.  Not so in the GOP, size and money matters (ask Ron Paul) and if you don't like the decision then "hey, thats our principles you can go to Democrats - but you won't will you?"  The GOP doesn't give every member its chance it offers the key vocal/moneyed interests some victories and everyone else is cajoled with lesser of two evils bit.  

*) Composition.  I think the GOP actually has less components. Generally defense, economics, and social. For conservatives it easy to juggle the ranking.  for the left it looks like the sub issues of three take greater prominence - like  for LGBT activists their goals outweigh any other concerns. It appears, I could be wrong, that the Democrats are made up of more single-issue (and more passionate) voters than the GOP (well, except the abortion crowd).

*) Membership - The GOP really manages attrition well. It boils down to the most active and moneyed and keeps them happy. It only lightens up if it starts reaching a critical mass. the CA GOP tried to do this (arnold, meg) but the national GOP's louder voice does it no service. so CAGOP lacks power.

Democrats stick to the big tent from the FDR days and it seems when it unravels it unravels fast (i.e. carter voters becoming reagan dmocrats).  It seems like its a mass vs money issue. if a leader like Obama/Clinton can energize the left's mass he's in. Other than that the GOP money/mobilized can push through to the white house.  In California, it works to the dems favor because there is a more vocal left here but also the mass is so massive that even in weaker turnouts the democrats can roll over the GOP.

*) Finally for progressives I think you are in losing position to the Neoliberals. It appears that the Neoliberals are both greater in numbers and better financed. But that isn't devastating enough its also that the Neoliberals are well positioned to scoop the middle and center-right.  Clinton's "triangulation" in many ways was to soften his Neoliberal base just enough to capture the middle. He probably scored points for turning on progressives to boot.

Taken another way - if Clinton tried to triangulate as a progressive against the GOP and the Neoliberals (you could argue thats what happen with HillaryCare) he would of been crushed and the GOP would probably have found a Neoliberal-GOP alliance easy to form.


Great Post! (0.00 / 0)
Hit the nail on the head! We need discipline if we are going to survive and thrive. No time to be yellow bellies in this fight because the Conservatives are playing for keeps in this battle. We have to be Aggressively Progressive in all our messaging and outreach.

not rosy for the GOP (0.00 / 0)
economist article on how the GOP is having a hard time finding a 2012 candidate - all of them angered some part of the coalition

http://www.economist.com/node/...


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