| Well, here we go - the November 2010 election is finally here. Finally our TV screens will be freed from the tyranny of Meg Whitman's mug for the first time since the Winter Olympics. (Although I've started seeing Lindsey Vonn in TV ads, which is nice.) Californians will awaken tomorrow with a new governor-elect, although the word "new" should probably not be taken literally in Jerry Brown's case.
But tonight will offer some fascinating, compelling, and sometimes gut-wrenching election returns, not just across the country but here in California. Here's what we at Calitics will be watching for tonight:
• How big will our Democratic wave be? California is bucking the national trend - fueled by a diverse electorate, a maturing progressive movement, and strong campaigns, Democrats are poised to do well at the top of the ticket. But how deep will that wave go? Will it be enough to overcome corporate money downticket to put Kamala Harris and Dave Jones into office? Will it be enough to save some of the close seats in the House of Representatives? Will it be enough to pick off some Republican seats?
• Can Dems play defense? Incumbent Democrats are generally going to cruise tonight, but in a few districts things are much less certain. In the House, Jerry McNerney (CA-11), Jim Costa (CA-20) and Loretta Sanchez (CA-47) are facing strong right-wing challenges, with Dennis Cardoza (CA-18) vulnerable as well. If people voting for Brown and Boxer stick around and vote downticket for these Dems, they should be OK, but any one of them could lose tonight. In the Legislature, Dems are nervous but confident they can keep their Assembly seats, with Alyson Huber (AD-10) and Joan Buchanan (AD-15) being the most vulnerable.
• Can Dems play offense? If there's a blue wave tonight, we'll know it by how many - if any - new seats Democrats pick up. The most important battle is in SD-12, where Anna Caballero is fighting a brutal battle against Anthony Cannella. Caballero will do extremely well in the Salinas Valley portion of the district, but it's much less clear how she'll do in the Central Valley, where the race will be decided.
Dems may also have some pickups in the Assembly. Richard Pan in AD-5 is in a tight battle with arch-bigot Andy Pugno, author of Prop 8. Melissa Fox in AD-70 and Phu Nguyen in AD-68 could be Democratic pickups in Orange County.
If tonight is a good night for Dems, we could see some Republican House seats fall. Ami Bera in CA-3 probably has the best chance, but any one of Bill Hedrick (CA-44), Steve Pougnet (CA-45), and Beth Krom (CA-48) has a chance to surprise.
• Will corporate money pick off a few statewide seats after all? Karl Rove and big corporations are spending millions to defeat Kamala Harris and Dave Jones - these races really matter, and even though corporate money might flame out in the higher profile races, we've got to hope that it fails to cost us the Attorney General and Insurance Commissioner seats.
• Will we sweep the propositions? Ballot propositions have a tendency to not turn out the way progressives like, although that has begun to change ever since the historic victory over Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2005. Tonight could see a progressive sweep, especially if the defeat of Prop 23 and the passage of Prop 25 are joined by the defeat of Prop 26 and the passage of Prop 24. We also need Prop 21 to pass and, last but not least, I really hope Prop 19 pulls out the victory and sets California - and eventually the nation - on the path away from Prohibition.
• Will Nancy Pelosi remain speaker? As I explained over the weekend, losing her as Speaker would be catastrophic. I'm pretty confident about most things here in California today, but not this. Republican control of the House would inaugurate a new round of Hooverism and could even undermine what remains of our democracy. Speaker Pelosi has been a fighter for progressive causes and for California. If she loses her majority tonight, it will be terrible - especially since it won't be her fault, as she will have been undone by the failures of President Obama and the Senate Democrats.
We'll be covering the elections results here at Calitics and, at least for myself, on Twitter - follow me @cruickshank. Get out there and vote, and then come back here and talk about the results! |
