Prioritize ballot proposition campaigns

by: DanKalb

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 10:25:36 AM PDT

Should Democratic and progressive campaign forces prioritize spending on ballot propositions for the remaining weeks of the election?
I say Yes! Here are a couple of examples...

The Democratic establishment is combining a NO on 20 with a YES on 27 message. But, for better or worse, Prop. 27 is sure to lose. The Democratic leadership should cut 27 loose and realize that Prop. 20 is truly a bad idea from a national perspective. They should focus there redistricting campaign effort on defeating Prop 20.

Some excellent unions and their progressive allies are spending lots of campaign dollars in trying to pass Prop. 24. They also actively support Prop. 25. But the apparent focus in trying to pass Prop. 24 could be a mistake. While Prop 24 is worthy of passage, it is highly unlikely to actually pass. Those campaign dollars would be better spent in trying to pass the more important Prop. 25--the on-time, majority-vote budget initiative--which is leading in the polls but still has stiff opposition.

Please share your thoughts.

DanKalb :: Prioritize ballot proposition campaigns

Tags: Propositions, 20, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, election, campaign dollars, (All Tags)

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Prioritize ballot proposition campaigns | 2 comments

Polling? (0.00 / 0)

I haven't seen any polling on prop 27. Have you?

IRRC, the redistricting commission passed by about 50.1%. I don't see why prop 27 can't pass by 50.1%. If not this year, then try again. This is something that failed twice and then eeked out a tiny victory. I say fight back.

I did see polling on prop 24. PPIC has it at 35-35. While the conventional wisdom says that's a sure fire loser, I'm not so sure. Like the "incumbent below 50% is likely to lose" rule, the "yes below 50% is likely to lose" rule is a disproven MYTH. See Nate Silver's analysis. Heck... I can think of many props off the top of my head that won after being below 50%.

Messaging will be key to both of these. On prop 24, it's "Repeal corporate tax breaks." On Prop 27, take a page out of the right wing playbook and say "it eliminates a wasteful government bureaucracy" and saves taxpayers money.

The other thing... I've always believed that we should play offense as well as defense. And when playing offense, throw the kitchen sink at 'em. The more friendly ballot propositions, the merrier. Not all of them will pass, but it gives the right wing multiple fronts to fight on, multiple props to contribute money against and drain their resources, diluting those resources from other contests. Something will pass, and you go after the rest the next time. Hit them again and again and again. Put the same prop on the ballot till it passes. That's the way they play the game, and so should we.

by: westside progressive @ Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 23:49:57 PM UTC

Campaign funds are non unlimited (0.00 / 0)

Thanks westside for the passionate input. Ideally, I would agree that we should fight for all the progressive positions on every ballot proposition. But we don't have unlimited funds; therefore, we may not have the resources to hit them again and again and again on every proposition.

I am advocating that we play offense--smart offense. This state desperately needs to pass Prop. 25. That means unions and other progressive forces need to put more funds into the YES on 25 media campaign. Since funds are not unlimited, that may mean redirecting some funds from the longshot Prop. 24 effort.

by: DanKalb @ Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 18:28:55 PM UTC

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