Cross posted on my blog http://frogandturtle.blogspot.... which you should visit for more election analysis in California and the U.S.
With Arnold Schwarzenegger retiring, Democrats thought they would have a great shot at picking up California's Governorship. Then, they ran into problems. Jerry Brown who is the Attorney General and former Governor decided to run. He has material to attack and he knocked other candidates out of the primary who would have won the general election more easily like Antonio Villaraigosa. Then Meg Whitman, former CEO of ebay from Silicon Valley decided to run and brought all her money with her. The worst part is that this is a Republican year, putting the national mood against Democrats. Now Jerry Brown is running a tight race with Meg Whitman which is finally going his way with the news story about Nicky Diaz Santiallo. Whitman's ex-nanny, Jill Armstrong is also supporting Santiallo so this story is not leaving. Meg Whitman though can just write herself another check to defend herself. Anyway, this could become a dead heat again. This is why I created the baselines for the race. I factored in Presidential results from 2008 and Attorney General results from 2006.
The baselines are predictions for county percentages if the race is tied. These are NOT my predictions for the actual vote count, it just shows how the county map will look if there is a tie. The baselines show Brown doing well in the Bay Area but getting crushed in the Central Valley. He also carries two of three bellwether counties. He wins Lake and San Benito counties but loses Santa Barbara County. He also does poorly in Southern California except for LA County which he wins by 16 points. Also, I have the vote totals for each county below too. I had the turnout levels be 65% of 2008. I did not take into account the fact that some parts of the state might have 55% turnout of 2008 or 75%. For Jerry Brown to win, he will have to either increase turnout in the Bay Area or increase his vote percentage there. Okay, here are the baselines and a few links:
http://quickfacts.census.gov/q... clearer map of California
http://uselectionatlas.org/RES... 2008 results
http://www.sos.ca.gov/election... 2006 Attorney General results
(P.S) This is my first post here and if this blog is not really the place to talk about California election analysis but more about policy, let me know.
