SD-15 Results Thread

asdf (0.00 / 0)

Is it my imagination or is it looking a little better tonight than in June?

A little more turnout too?

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by: Attorney At Arms @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 03:41:32 AM UTC

No (0.00 / 0)

It's not my imagination. Blakeslee wasn't under 50% until the very end.

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by: Attorney At Arms @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 03:44:45 AM UTC

if prop 14 was around for this (0.00 / 0)

Laird would of had a chance in a top 2 environment. Does this mean Sam only has 6 years at best to serve if he doesn't lose in 2012?  

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by: mmunson @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 06:30:01 AM UTC

Looks like the district is a mash of two political cultures (0.00 / 0)

Santa Cruz/Monterey, where Laird won overwhelmingly, and San Louis Obispo/Santa Barbara, where Blakelee won overwhelmingly.

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by: aphrael @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 06:31:43 AM UTC

it would be interesting to see (0.00 / 0)

how, if at all, those two regional bases were internally inflected at all by precinct, or whether it was just a simple native son contest and blakeslee's counties were bigger.

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by: wu ming @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 06:37:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Robert was so right! (2.33 / 3)

making Abel Maldonado Lt. Governor would result in another senate seat for the Democrats.

An Open Letter to the California Senate Democratic Caucus:

put SD-15 into play. Sure, you could wait until 2012 when the seat comes open - but by then legislative districts will have been drawn by the Prop 11 commission, and who knows what the landscape will look like. Why pass up an opportunity to have a Democratic governor and 2/3rds in the Senate - especially when we can find 3 seats to pick up in the Assembly?

What a slam-dunk SD15 was! OMG how could anyone have thought that giving Abel the Lt. Gov. spot was anything but an awesome idea!

I Guess They Don't Actually Want A 2/3 Majority: ( or maybe "they" are smarter than Robert):

More damning is the basic philosophy behind this "gee, winning the 15th is gonna be hard" nonsense. If Democrats are scared of winning a seat where they hold a 6 point registration advantage, a seat Obama won by 20 points, then they really have a serious problem providing the leadership this state needs.

Robert, you are god and so right! Winning the SD-15 was trivial....

oh wait... John Laird lost???

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by: patmoore @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 09:05:38 AM UTC

It was still better to try (3.50 / 2)

So, what was the alternative. KEEP Maldonado in the SD-15 seat and have a lame duck Dem in the LG seat until November? How would that help?

Do we really think Maldonado is going to beat Gavin Newsom in November (and does it matter much if he does)?

Coming within 6% points of winning a Republican-held seat is not a bad result, I think.

##########################

The Mad Professah Lectures
http://www.madprofessah.com

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by: MadProfessah @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 12:43:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Considering the Odds (8.00 / 1)

two out of place primaries.  Having to work against an almost 50% on Blakeslee the first time around, etc., I think the efforts made were nothing to sneeze at, and at last vote count the difference was 6,500 so there was potential, and we got Democrats engaged at a time of what we're told are a base that is unhappy and would not turn out, and key voting blocs such as Cal Poly (not in session yet) was not available.  I was proud to put in the hours of phone banking, etc. myself while friends of mine in the East Bay did on the ground canvassing including on election day, itself.

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by: norm @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 14:21:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That is out of place elections (0.00 / 0)

i.e. special elections, not primaries.

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by: norm @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 14:24:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes (0.00 / 0)

Yes, keep Maldonado in so he could be termed out faster.

Yes, have a "lame duck" Democrat LG so the "lame duck" Democrat could run as the incumbent is a great idea.

Instead, we have a brand new Republican in SD-15 AND a incumbent Republican in the LG office.

A net loss for the Democrats. Of course, a loss is a victory using the current Orwellian logic here.

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by: patmoore @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 18:33:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What are you smoking? (0.00 / 0)

You do realize that the interim LG needs to be nominated by the Governor, right?  So who is this magical Democrat that you think Schwarzenegger would have appointed to fill the vacancy if Maldonado had not been confirmed?

Perhaps you wouldn't be quite so jaded and bitter if you joined the reality-based world.

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by: Be_Devine @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 23:19:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nothing good enough apparently (0.00 / 0)

You do realize that the interim LG needs to be nominated by the Governor, right?

Yes, I live in reality.

So who is this magical Democrat that you think Schwarzenegger would have appointed to fill the vacancy

However, I don't live in a binary world. Democrats should have negotiated hard on this. They should have pushed for a caretaker, someone who had no interest in running for re-election. So maybe not a Democrat. Perhaps a retired Republican.

you wouldn't be quite so jaded and bitter if you joined the reality-based world.

See I live in reality not a virtual reality-based world.

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by: patmoore @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 15:08:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Really? (0.00 / 0)

Do we really think Maldonado is going to beat Gavin Newsom in November (and does it matter much if he does)?

Again, the overconfidence of victory and then the immediate dismissal of the impact of defeat. Its easier to defend an office than to run for it. Maldonado is able to use the office to create individual successes for him to brag about in the ads leading up to the general.

Once again basic Politics 101.

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by: patmoore @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 18:36:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wow, you really have a hate-on for Robert (0.00 / 0)

It's impressive that almost every single comment you've made is to attack him personally.  

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by: jsw @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 19:18:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No I did.... (0.00 / 0)

attack him personally, I ridiculed and disparaged his analysis.

I leave the personal attacks to Robert.  

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by: patmoore @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 15:13:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

.... and besides (0.00 / 0)

...that comment was in reply to MadProfessah

As a point of fact, I am irritated with being right. And I do praise Robert ( http://calitics.com/showCommen... ). But Robert engages is true-believer thinking too much. Robert trashes the views of everyone who does not agree with him ( check out his HSR blog )

This prevents him from getting an alternative view which would lead to better blog posts ( he may still come to the "wrong" conclusion but at least he would understand the differing views )

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by: patmoore @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 15:20:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Senate Dems went all-in on this (0.00 / 0)

They fought very hard - however, the scheduling of the election by the governor - dead of summer, when students were away from campus and when it is harder to turn out voters - played the key role in producing this result.

Had the election been consolidated with the November general election, the result would have been different.

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave

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by: Robert Cruickshank @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 17:14:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh geezz...... (2.50 / 2)

And no one could expect that anyone in the governor's office could figure this out.

Come on they are Republicans, not morons! You are acting as if school being out of session, and going for a special election rather than combining it with the November general is some sort of surprise. It basic Politics 101.

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by: patmoore @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 18:28:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry Robert... (0.00 / 0)

Ordinarily, I think your analysis of the situation is pretty spot on, but in this instance, I have to side with Pat.  Speaking as someone who has been a Cal Poly SLO student, I can tell you that, despite university students usually being more progressive, Cal Poly has a very conservative student body.  Or, at least, it did while I was there.  However, given the type of students the school attracts, I seriously doubt that it has changed much.

I think Pat is right when saying that we'd be better off if the Leg had held off or denied St. Abel's confirmation so that Laird would have a shot at the general election.  I also share Pat's lack of shock that the Governator would totally disregard the law in order to achieve his goals.  I am a state employee after all.  I've been on the receiving end of his utter disregard for the law since February of last year!

I am no longer surprised by anything anymore.  I would be surprised if progressives won a real victory, but since that hasn't been happening lately, I don't think anything will surprise me anymore.  What I am is frustrated.  I used to get excited when progressives like the good folks here at Calitics made a good case for why they think we'll win a real victory, like SD 15, but now I just see it for what it is: wishful thinking.

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by: scramjett @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 00:12:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Timing (0.00 / 0)

Could someone explain why it was Maldonado's confirmation wasn't delayed long enough to force a November run-off?

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by: Steve Bloom @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 18:08:44 PM UTC

They tried that... (0.00 / 0)

The Legislature tried to delay St. Abel's confirmation as long as possible so as to force a general election run off.  It didn't work because the Governator forced SD 15 to hold a special election (when it didn't really have the money for it and when it probably was illegal to do so) so as to guarantee a favorable outcome for the wingnuts.

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by: scramjett @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 00:40:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmm (0.00 / 0)

What seems clear is that the timing of the confirmation allowed Arnold to schedule the special when he did per state law.  Relying on the success of that federal challenge seems like poor judgement.

So what it sounds like is yet another El Foldo, with Dem leaders not wanting to look like they were engaging in delaying tactics in order to gain political advantage.  Will they ever get over that, in Sacramento or DC?      

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by: Steve Bloom @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 04:00:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed (0.00 / 0)

Especially when Republicans do the same damn thing!  It really pisses me off when they can get away with it but cry foul when Democrats even dare to do it.  Its becoming all too common for the Dems to cave rather than telling the Repubs "Hey, we're just doing what you do.  Don't cry about it when all we did is used your own dirty tactic against you."

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by: scramjett @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 16:41:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Observations from the field (8.00 / 3)

I ran phone banks for John Laird in Santa Cruz County for 10 weeks--through both special election cycles. In total, I volunteered over 200 hours for this campaign. And I talked to a lot of volunteers and voters in the process. I can't say if my observations hold true for the other counties involved, but this is what I heard:

1. Hundreds and hundreds of volunteers turned out to help. Most said, "I can't vote for him because the district is so crazy. But he represented us really well in the Assembly. So I wanted to do what I could to help." Every elected official should be so lucky as to have such a legacy.

2. Many, many voters we talked to were very, very confused. They didn't understand the process. They didn't remember the election. They didn't get ballots, or didn't know what they were and threw them away. There's little doubt in my mind that this depressed turnout.

3. A lot of people complained about the negative advertising. Big corporations spent almost $2.5 million to mail out and broadcast a lot of lies. Unfortunately, they worked. People did believe them. We heard a fair number of negative comments from people we called. And these were mostly Democrats!

4. Voters had serious burnout. As a friend pointed out to me this morning, people are burned out in general. A lot are stressed out by economic insecurity. They don't want to think about another election just two weeks after the primary and yet another less than a month later. They were tired of the ads, the mailers, and the calls.

The turnout at the polling places I was doing GOTV for yesterday was just horrible. There's no other way to say it. People yelled at us when we called to try to get them to vote. They hung up on us or quit answering the phone. But, most heartbreakingly, they often said, "I'm not interested."

So voters in SD-15 let lies repeated often enough influence their vote. And they just didn't care enough to even listen. To me, this is a sad state of affairs. As a result, we have let Big Oil buy a seat in our state Senate. We have elected a man who has voted to open our shores to oil drilling, and will again. Who has cut education funding, and will again. Who has cut taxes for wealthy corporations, and will again.

We will all pay for the indifference of SD-15 voters. As one volunteer said this morning, "the best man did not win." It makes me sadder than I can say.

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by: cfinnie @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 21:10:03 PM UTC

I sympathize (0.00 / 0)

Most said, "I can't vote for him because the district is so crazy..."

I'm not sure I follow.  Why can't you vote for someone because the "district is crazy?"

As for the rest, I sympathize.  It really is frustrating to try to convince people why its so important to vote for someone like John Laird when people are worried about other things like the economy (a valid concern of course), or confused, or burnt out, or angry, or worst of all, not interested.  I see that so much in people these days that it really depresses me.

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by: scramjett @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 01:01:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I suspect she's referring to the Gerrymander (5.00 / 1)

The craziest thing about SD-15 is its borders; it snakes its way from Santa Clara county to Santa Barbara county.  It's shaped like a boa constrictor that wants to eat the city of Santa Cruz.

So a lot of people who know Laird well were not able to vote for him because they weren't in the belly of the snake.

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by: mbayrob @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 01:26:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ah! (0.00 / 0)

I understand now.  Yeah, we have a few of those up here in Sacramento (I'm looking at you SD 5!).

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by: scramjett @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 16:47:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes (0.00 / 0)

Sorry, I was referring to the gerrymandered district--250 miles long across 5 counties. I know it's not the only one. I'm in a couple myself.

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by: cfinnie @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 18:22:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Time for IRV (0.00 / 0)

Instant runoff voting? So people's votes would not be wasted, where you still could vote for third parties with your two choices, but there would be no spoiled vote?

Also would save counties money that they don't have to put on run-off elections.  

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by: mmunson @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 16:32:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]