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Field Poll Shows Props 19 and 23 Losing, Props 18 and 25 Passing

by: Robert Cruickshank

Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 08:30:00 AM PDT


Yes No
Prop 18: 42 32
Prop 19: 44 48
Prop 23: 36 48
Prop 25: 65 20
Field Poll week, always a kind of California political Christmas in July (or whatever month it happens to be), continues today with new numbers on four of the major propositions on the fall ballot, which you can see at right. They are Prop 18, the $11 billion water bond which may or may not be on the fall ballot, Prop 19, which would legalize cannabis, Prop 23, which would repeal AB 32 and destroy our green jobs economy, and Prop 25, the majority vote budget initiative.

It's hard to discern any obvious trends from these numbers, so I'll take each proposition in turn (except Prop 18, which seems likely to be removed from the ballot). Prop 19 is suffering from the "enthusiasm gap" seen in other polls around the state and nation, in that Democratic base voters are not planning to show up in the same numbers this fall that they did in 2008. But Prop 19 is having some trouble even with that base vote.

White voters support Prop 19 48-43. But nonwhites are opposing it by larger margins. Latinos oppose 62-36, African Americans oppose 52-40, and Asian Americans oppose 62-33. Voters under age 30 support it 52-39, but the Field Poll found the white/non-white divide exists in this age group as well. Voters between ages 30 and 65 are mostly split, with voters over age 65 strongly opposed, 57-33.

Some may read these numbers as portending doom for Prop 19. But the campaign is already moving to proactively address this. This week saw the prominent endorsement of Prop 19 by the California NAACP, whose president Alice Huffman wrote about her support for the law:

As leaders of the California NAACP, it is our mission to eradicate injustice and continue the fight for civil rights and social justice wherever and whenever we can. We are therefore compelled to speak out against another war, the so called "war on drugs." To be clear, this is not a war on the drug lords and violent cartels, this is a war that disproportionately affects young men and women and the latest tool for imposing Jim Crow justice on poor African-Americans.

This is a message that will resonate among African Americans, and likely among Latinos as well. Cast as a prison reform measure, and a fight against unfair police treatment, it is entirely likely that the numbers will show movement toward the "yes" side among those communities. And that could be enough to put Prop 19 over the top. Clearly, turnout will matter, and if Prop 19 can drive its younger supporters to the polls, that will not only help Prop 19, but Democrats on the November ballot.

Prop 23, the measure backed by big oil companies that would repeal AB 32, the landmark global warming and green jobs bill, is not in a good position, with only 36% of voters backing it. Prop 23 fares poorly among all age groups except 30-39 year olds, which is primarily made up of the more right-wing Generation X. Millennial voters, those of us 30 and under, oppose Prop 23 by a large margin, 56-33.

Prop 25's large early lead is welcome news to progressives - and probably explains the right-wing smear campaign that was launched against it yesterday, as Brian explained. With 58% of Republicans supporting this measure, you can also understand why Republican politicians are now lying to the public that Prop 25 would make it easier to raise taxes.

Although, if they keep saying that and Prop 25 passes anyway, it would seem a sign to me that we should immediately follow up with an initiative on the November 2012 ballot to eliminate the 2/3 rule for taxes as well.

Clearly there is some work to do on behalf of Prop 19, particularly among communities of color. And we'll need to ensure that Prop 23 remains unpopular, and that the No on 25 campaign isn't able to erode this early support for Prop 25 by too great a margin.

Robert Cruickshank :: Field Poll Shows Props 19 and 23 Losing, Props 18 and 25 Passing
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The Budget Battle this year will be Prop 25s best selling point (0.00 / 0)
For the next two or three months the media will be filled with stories about the devastating effects of the budget battle. The dysfunction of the current system will be on display for all to see. It should make selling reform much easier.

Race and Prop 19 (0.00 / 0)
The finding that African-Americans oppose Prop 19 is interesting, because an April poll by Survey USA found Africans-Americans overwhelmingly supportive of legalization.
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Of course, if African-Americans vote against Prop 19 in November, it won't be the first time a concept has been embraced in theory then rejected at the ballot after months of distortion.


If blacks tell pollsters they'll back Prop 19, and then don't... (0.00 / 0)
...then we'll need an alternative term similar to "Bradley Effect."

"Bogart Effect" maybe?


[ Parent ]
No evidence of Prop 19 resonance among Latinos (0.00 / 0)
Field shows 36% in favor, 62% opposed and just 2% undecided. In fact Latinos have the smallest percent undecided.

Guess I still have San Francisco hippie values, although I'm an engineer

Prop 19 undecideds (0.00 / 0)
The comparatively low level of undecided voters on Prop 19 is a significant hurdle.

Guess I still have San Francisco hippie values, although I'm an engineer

As is the case... (0.00 / 0)
with most "social" issues, most people DO have an opinion formed pretty early on it.  Not that it can't change over time, but these usually have a low level of undecideds.  And those that say they're undecided (as was with gay marriage) seem to be lying so as not to embarrass themselves in front of a pollster.

[ Parent ]
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