SD-15: Roll it again

what can be done differently to get a D win here? (0.00 / 0)

There's a +6 Democrat registration lead in SD-15. What's up with Independents (DTS) and Laird?

##########################

The Mad Professah Lectures
http://www.madprofessah.com

---

by: MadProfessah @ Wed Jun 23, 2010 at 18:58:05 PM UTC

Still assessing this (8.00 / 1)

So analysis is tentative. But there are two key factors at work:

1. The timing of the special election. Turnout was very low, suggesting that Arnold Schwarzenegger's desire to boost Blakeslee by scheduling the election when he did has succeeded in its goal of suppressing the Democratic turnout.

2. The massive amount of attack ads bought with corporate money. Most of you who don't live in this district never saw it, but oil companies - including BP - and other companies like Phillip Morris and Anthem Blue Cross spent over $1 million in nasty, misleading attack ads targeting Laird, ads that aired constantly. What these ads did was help energize Republican voters and may have also suppressed Dem turnout.

More later.

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave

---

by: Robert Cruickshank @ Wed Jun 23, 2010 at 19:44:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think the problem was independents (0.00 / 0)

it was getting Democrats to vote! The litany of excuses was mind-boggling. It was like pulling teeth.

I was on the ground in Santa Clara County for the last 10 days of the campaign and the levels of ignorance, apathy and hostility were high. Too many voters still had no clue an election was happening, the ones that did were largely not motivated to vote, and many more than I expected were hostile for unexplained reasons.

The most depressing thing was watching Republicans turn out. how come the timing doesn't equally depress Republican turnout? Whole households voted on their side and we were lucky if we got one Democrat out of a whole household of Dems to vote. What's going on culturally that this is so?

It does not bode well for November either.

---

by: Margaret @ Wed Jun 23, 2010 at 22:57:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Provisional ballots (5.00 / 1)

Blakeslee is not giving up.  He is about 450 votes shy of the magic 50% mark and there are at least 4000 provisional ballots here in SLO.  I don't know about the other counties.  

The other thing has to do with JOBSPAC.  On May 22nd, they had about $500,000 cash on hand.  Between May 22 and June 22 they (and their affiliates) spent about $1 million on the race.  Do they have the cash to do it again?  We tend to think that they have an unlimited fountain of money, but they have their problems and they have other priorities.

Without a sustained barrage of negative ads, can Blakeslee keep back Laird?  I doubt it.  Of course, I would rather be in Blakeslee's position (just a few hundred votes shy of victory) than Laird's position, but this is definately doable.  We need to build on what we achieved yesterday.

---

by: smoker1 @ Wed Jun 23, 2010 at 21:15:51 PM UTC

provisional ballots trending toward Laird (5.00 / 1)

in Santa Clara County, from the looks of the last update from the registrar at 2 PM today.

---

by: Margaret @ Wed Jun 23, 2010 at 23:29:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Laird Trend (0.00 / 0)

You're right.  Laird picked up votes today.  District wide he went from 41.18% to 41.49%.  Last night Blakesless needed 455 votes to reach the 50% threshold.  Today he needs 801.  The only county that has not updated is Santa Cruz, which figures to be more good news.

Looks like a runnoff is coming.

---

by: smoker1 @ Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 01:48:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looks to me like Blakeslee is only 559 votes short (0.00 / 0)

and the results page currently shows him at 49.8%.

I'd still bet on a runoff, but I wouldn't bet much without knowing how many provisionals remain to be counted.

---

by: Seneca Doane @ Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:39:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

how can I help? (0.00 / 0)

I'm a Democrat living in San Mateo County; I work full time but don't have money I can donate. I used to live in Santa Cruz and would support Laird for just about anything.

How can I help him win in August?

---

by: aphrael @ Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 00:56:05 AM UTC

Time and/or money (5.00 / 1)

Some ways to help:

- Hold a house party for Laird and ask your friends to give to his campaign. If you're not comfortable inviting people to your place (your real friends won't be picky though) ask a friend with a nice house if they'd be willing to host. You can arrange for Laird to call in on a speakerphone during the party and say a few words. Be sure to call people on the phone to get them to come, and at the party, pass out envelopes and pens as soon as you make your pitch for funds.

- Give as much as you can. If you hold a house party you need to tell your friends you gave yourself too. If you can donate even $10 that would be a help. The local office could have used more food for the volunteers but I guess they couldn't afford it.

- Have a birthday coming up? Ask friends and family to donate to Laird's campaign for your birthday. Set up an ActBlue page for this. http://www.actblue.com/entity/...

- Come down and help walk a precinct on the weekends, maybe carpool with someone. Lots of people were phoning for the campaign but we really needed more actual bodies on the ground to door knock. Some folks drove down from as far away as Berkeley.

- If you're a member of the Sierra Club you can help the local chapter make phone calls to members to turn out volunteers and voters. Call me at 650-269-4109 if you can help with this.

Contact information for each of the five county local campaign HQ's is on the lairdforsenate.com website. The Santa Clara County HQ is taking five days off but starting next week they'll be at it again. Call before showing up if you can as it's helpful to give them a heads up.

---

by: Margaret @ Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 02:54:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So what happens... (0.00 / 0)

if nobody gets 50% in August either?  Indefinite runoffs till the end of time??  Do it again in November?

---

by: BruinKid @ Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 06:31:11 AM UTC

Most votes wins (0.00 / 0)

August 17 is the last election for this seat until the regular election in November 2012.

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave

---

by: Robert Cruickshank @ Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 15:45:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

right. (0.00 / 0)

the issue is that the june election was technically a 'primary', except that special elections run under a rule that (a) has a blanket primary and (b) obviates the general election if someone got 50%+1 in a blanket primary.

the august election is a general election.

[speaking of such: what's the interaction between prop. 14 and this? ISTM that either (a) we now have a rule which has a jungle primary / top-two runoff for normal elections and a blanket primary / one-per-party general for special elections, which is just stupid; (b) this election was illegal as it violated the section of the election code embedded in prop. 14; (c) this election was exempt from prop. 14 for some timing reason involving when the ballots needed to be printed. anyone know which it is?]

---

by: aphrael @ Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 23:24:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

never mind (0.00 / 0)

Prop 14. doesn't go into effect until Jan 1, 2011.

---

by: aphrael @ Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 23:26:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not by GOTV alone (0.00 / 0)

I think most of the August 17 turnout will come from people who voted yesterday. A strong enough voter contact campaign could turn enough Independent/Lib and even GOP votes toward Laird.

The Big Oil issue is a monster, but people won't believe the ads until somebody sells them face to face.

When I say enough, I mean enough to get close enough (within 4 points or so) that a stupendous gotv could win for the Dems.

This Exxon guy is a human tarball. Let's go get him.

---

by: SteveHigh @ Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 07:28:18 AM UTC

What we heard (0.00 / 0)

I ran phone banks in Santa Cruz for 3 weeks before the special election. This is what we heard:

People were confused about the election and either thought it was a duplicate ballot from the just-finished primary, or didn't know where to vote on June 22.

Not enough people knew who Laird was. Even in areas he already represented, his name recognition was surprisingly low. Some people I talked to said they'd vote for him because he was the only Democrat, but still didn't seem to know him.

The attack ads worked. I talked to people who believed them and didn't know who was behind them and paying for them. There were some good pieces that exposed the big-money connection like the YouTube video by the League of Conservation Voters. But the viewership for this was poor and it never did achieve the viral status it deserved and needed. Same goes for some of the independent sites out there.

Laird staff worked incredibly hard. Union volunteers were awesome. Planned Parenthood sponsored phone banks all over, as did OFA and DFA. The CDP did a lot. But, outside of Monterey County, I saw little support from county Democratic parties in the Northern part of the district (I don't know about the south). They could have, and need to do more before the August election.

---

by: cfinnie @ Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 23:39:36 PM UTC