| 11:03: Given the slow pace of counting (something that could be fixed if California decided democracy was worth paying for) I'm going to turn in for the night. Pretty much everything is decided, except Prop 16. When SF, Santa Clara, and LA counties fully report, Prop 16 may well go down to defeat. Prop 15 will need huge Yes votes in those counties to pass, and there's an outside change Prop 17 could still go down to defeat. We'll wrap this up in the morning and deliver some assessments of what this all means. For now, buenos noches.
10:57: SF and Santa Clara County still haven't reported. If big No on 16 vote comes from there - as we might expect - then it might well go down.
10:55: Abel Maldonado declared winner by LA Times. This should be an interesting race between Newsom and Maldonado.
10:52: Janice Hahn concedes, asks supporters to back Newsom in November. I like Janice Hahn a lot, and she could be a strong candidate in the future. But she needs to learn from this campaign. Hiring Garry South was a mistake that ruined her campaign, and I told her so back when she let him attack Newsom.
10:45: Prop 16 now dead even, with No having a 2,000 vote lead. This will go back and forth all night. It's a remarkable achievement given that the No campaign was outspent something like 40,000 to 1 by PG&E. It would be even better if Prop 16 failed outright. Unfortunately, Prop 17 looks set to pass.
10:20: AP declares Dave Jones Democratic Insurance Commissioner nominee. Prop 16 regains narrow lead. Going to be back and forth all night.
10:14: At this point it looks like the only races where the outcome is in any doubt are Prop 16, maybe Prop 17, and the Republican Insurance Commissioner race (Mike Villines has a 52-48 lead over Brian Fitzgerald). Maybe a few state legislative races too - apparently Lau and Butler are close in AD-53.
10:07: Big batch of LA County votes just came in, and Prop 16 is now losing by about 16,000 votes. The Bay Area still has to report as well, so there is hope yet that 16 will go down. The other props look pretty much done, including Prop 15's defeat. Ugh.
9:55: And just like that, California's elections are completely and dramatically changed with the passage of Prop 14, which is only on the ballot because Abel Maldonado blackmailed the legislature in a moment of crisis. Prop 14 is designed to shift the Democratic Party to the right. Progressives will have to figure out how to respond, and fast.
9:42: The Boxer campaign is striking hard at Fiorina, launching FiorinaFacts.com and @Fiorina_Facts to tell the state about Carly Fiorina's miserable record of failure.
9:35: AP calls Republican Sec of State race for Damon Dunn. It wasn't even close. Orly Taitz got just 25% of the vote.
9:34: Prop 14 passes. The corporate effort to destroy progressive Democrats in CA now begins.
9:16: Jerry Brown speaking now in LA. LA County Sheriff Lee Baca introduced him as the man who "implemented Prop 13." Oh great. This campaign season is gonna suck. Back to the 1970s for Jerry Brown: we need "discipline, humility, live within our means." Brown sounds like he's going to run as the apostle of austerity.
9:00: With 25% reporting, Das Williams has a huge lead - 67-33 - over Susan Jordan for the Democratic nomination in AD-35. Was NOT expecting that.
8:47: Larry Aceves out to a lead in Superintendent of Public Instruction race with 21.7%, Torlakson at 18.7%, Romero at 15%.
8:45: AP calls Republican Governor's race for Whitman. Surprise, surprise.
8:41: Judging by the map from the SoS office Prop 15 is getting hammered across the state. 55% of Sacramento County is in and Prop 15 is losing 39-61. Ouch.
8:32: With 7.4% in, Harman leads Winograd 65-35. Should tighten up as night goes on.
8:13 LA County results (7%) show Prop 14 ahead 60-40, Prop 15 behind 45-54, Prop 16 ahead 57-43, Prop 17 ahead 58-42. Harris over Kelly in AG race, 23-18. Fiorina way up with 60%, Campbell 20%, DeVore 16%.
8:10: While we wait for the statewide numbers to update, OC elections show some interesting numbers from early voting. Aanestad has a 38%-33% lead over Maldonado. Damon Dunn is trouncing Orly Taitz in her home county, 71-29, which suggests Taitz is going to get crushed tonight. Oh well.
8:03: Apparently there's some concern that Mike Gatto might not win the special election in AD-43 tonight due to low Democratic turnout. That would be a crime. Dems have a huge problem to face in mobilizing voters.
7:56: Field Poll predicts 33% turnout. Their final numbers were Whitman 51, Poizner 25 and Fiorina 37, Campbell 22, DeVore 19. |
