| Recently the campaign received the analysis of a poll conducted in the Ca 48th last week by Lake Research Partners. The poll is not online yet. I present to link to have a look at the client list.
The sample size was 300 likely November 006 voters.
The poll was composed of two sample areas:
- an area exposed to advertising and canvassing from Steve’s campaign
- an untargeted area that is 74% registered Republican
Here’s a snippet of the Oct 3 memoranda from Lake Research Partners:
"The following is a summary of key findings from a survey of General Election voters in the 48th Congressional District of California. These findings are based on 600 completed interviews with two matched samples of 300 likely November 2006 voters, one sample from areas exposed to advertising and canvassing from the Young Campaign, and the other sample in areas untargeted by the Young Campaign. Interviews were conducted from September 25-28, 2006. Sampling error is +/- 6% within each area. • John Campbell has yet to solidify his relationship to the voters. Voters in the exposed area, despite its Republican leanings, have not committed to re-elect Campbell, with only 32% indicating they would re-elect him, compared to 68% who would either vote for someone else (28%) or consider (40%) voting for someone else. Even in the very heavily Republican area where voters were not exposed to Young messaging, only about half the voters are committed to re-electing Campbell, far below the 74% Republican registration in the area. • Where voters have been exposed to Young’s advertising, despite Campbell’s incumbency and a significant Republican registration advantage, the head-to head race is very competitive, with 40% for Campbell and 36% for Young, 3% for Libertarian Bruce Cohen and fully 21% undecided. • Voters want to elect someone who will take the country in a significantly different direction than the direction in which President Bush is headed. In the exposed area, only 35% want to keep in the Bush direction, and even in the heavily Republican area (74% Republican), only 44% want a candidate (like Campbell) who would keep in the Bush direction. • Voters exposed to information from Steve Young—regardless of party—generally feel more favorably disposed toward him, and more negative toward Bush and more supportive of Young.
Here’s the short version:
Who would you vote for? – from the “Exposed to Steve area”
- 32% Re-elect Campbell – that’s an indication of how low GWB can go.
- 28% Vote for someone else
- 40% Consider voting for someone else
Who would you vote for? – not from the “Exposed to Steve area”
- ~50% Re-elect Campbell – remember this is an area that is 74% registered Republican
Voters who have been exposed to Steve’s message.
- 40% Campbell (R )
- 36% Steve Young (D)
- 3% Bruce (I)
- 21% Undecided !!
Significantly different direction of the country
- 35% stay on the Bush path
- 44% want a candidate to change direction
Here's the part we can directly affect:
Voters exposed to Steve and information from him, regardless of party, like him, are supportive of him and are more negative to Bush and Bush rubber stamps.
This poll shows that the Ca 48th is ours for the taking. As you can see we need to get Steve’s message out.
Volunteer here and/or contribute here. Don’t forget the $.01 to show that it’s coming from the netroots.
This poll shows that the Ca 48th is ours for the taking. Let's take it.
Disclaimer: I don’t work for the Steve Young for Congress Campaign. The ideas expressed here are mine alone alone as an excited private citizen and do not represent those of Steve Young, his advisors, staff, or supporters. |
