[mobile site, backup mobile]
[SoapBlox Help]
Menu & About Calitics

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

- About Calitics
- The Rules (Legal Stuff)
- Event Calendar
- Calitics' ActBlue Page
- Calitics RSS Feed
- Additional Advertisers

View All Calitics Tags Or Search with Google:
 
Web Calitics

Wire Services
Advertise Liberally Blue CA Ad Network

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 - May 2010 Edition

by: cali_girl_in_texas

Mon May 17, 2010 at 03:29:56 AM PDT


(More great information - promoted by Brian Leubitz)

While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends. I also added state legislative seats that are open this year in which the incumbent is not term-limited.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Democracy for California.

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
38.41%
39.15%
R+0.74
O+0.5
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.72%
41.46%
R+5.74
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.39%
39.42%
R+2.03
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.55%
40.13%
R+4.58
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.33%
42.75%
R+8.42
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
37.76%
41.55%
R+3.79
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.25%
44.44%
R+15.19
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.49%
40.23%
R+8.74
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip...
cali_girl_in_texas :: Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 - May 2010 Edition
Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/14 Republicans/1 Vacant, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 49 Democrats/29 Republicans/1 Independent (who is term-limited)/1 Vacant (Dem seat which will be filled before Election Day), with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3. Incumbents running for reelection are italicized.

SENATE

Republicans (6)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
32.57%
43.77%
R+12.20
M+11.8
SD-12
Jeff Denham
49.85%
31.47%
D+18.38
O+17.6
SD-14
Dave Cogdill
34.06%
46.91%
R+12.85
M+13.2
SD-15
Vacant
40.78%
34.50%
D+6.28
O+20.3
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.63%
47.31%
R+15.68
M+23.1
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
29.03%
45.81%
R+16.78
M+14.2

Democrats (6)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
SD-02
Pat Wiggins
49.76%
24.40%
D+15.36
O+39.9
SD-16
Dean Florez
50.63%
31.84%
D+18.79
O+19.5
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.58%
14.61%
D+43.97
O+58.7
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.17%
21.13%
D+32.04
O+41.3
SD-34
Lou Correa
44.25%
32.73%
D+11.52
O+16.8
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.63%
28.91%
D+17.72
O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (19)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.34%
39.78%
R+5.44
M+1.6
AD-05
Roger Niello
38.81%
38.30%
D+0.51
O+4.2
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
37.51%
41.42%
R+3.91
M+7.9
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.71%
38.57%
D+4.14
O+4.4
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
45.87%
36.18%
D+9.69
O+3.9
AD-32
Jean Fuller
31.06%
48.95%
R+17.89
M+26.7
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.70%
40.74%
R+5.04
O+1.4
AD-36
Steve Knight
38.95%
39.07%
R+0.12
O+0.8
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.81%
40.97%
R+5.16
O+3.7
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.77%
39.51%
R+2.74
O+4.9
AD-59
Anthony Adams
34.63%
42.93%
R+8.30
M+4.8
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.87%
40.10%
R+2.23
O+4.1
AD-64
Brian Nestande
35.68%
42.24%
R+5.56
O+1.8
AD-65
Paul Cook
36.62%
41.44%
R+4.82
M+4.1
AD-68
Van Tran
32.67%
40.91%
R+8.24
M+2.9
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.02%
42.99%
R+12.97
O+3.9
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.98%
41.60%
R+10.62
O+2.2
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.87%
39.84%
R+8.97
O+4.1
AD-77
Joel Anderson
30.92%
43.75%
R+12.83
M+13.0

Democrats (19)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.75%
23.42%
D+29.33
O+43.3
AD-09
Dave Jones
55.94%
19.80%
D+36.14
O+49.0
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.97%
39.03%
D+0.94
O+4.0
AD-11
Tom Torlakson
53.91%
21.78%
D+32.13
O+41.2
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.65%
35.65%
D+5.00
O+16.9
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.63%
19.89%
D+28.74
O+42.3
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.55%
26.25%
D+21.30
O+45.8
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.34%
18.69%
D+32.65
O+44.4
AD-28
Anna Caballero
55.39%
23.31%
D+32.08
O+38.3
AD-31
Juan Arambula
50.88%
32.08%
D+18.80
O+26.1
AD-35
Pedro Nava
47.79%
27.96%
D+19.83
O+35.6
AD-45
Kevin de León
58.83%
12.84%
D+45.99
O+63.6
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.73%
11.20%
D+53.53
O+71.9
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.48%
16.40%
D+45.08
O+55.9
AD-57
Ed Hernandez
51.14%
25.19%
D+25.95
O+34.4
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
42.24%
26.81%
D+15.43
O+34.4
AD-78
Martin Block
43.52%
30.78%
D+12.74
O+21.8
AD-79
Mary Salas
48.47%
23.91%
D+24.56
O+31.6
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.41%
35.39%
D+10.02
O+20.7
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 - May 2010 Edition | 7 comments
well, 2/3rds looks possible (0.00 / 0)
But we'd need to thread the needle very precisely this year. Pick up both SD 12 and 15, and then AD 5, 26, and 30. I'm more skeptical that the Republican-advantage seats that Obama won can be won this year without Obama on the ballot, but they certainly are pickup opportunities in 2012.  
AD-68 and AD-70 (4.00 / 1)
Are definitely winnable with great Democratic candidates running for open seats against bottom of the barrel Republicans.

2/3 is definitely within our grasp and it's actually easier to achieve than majority rule, a constitutional convention, or some combination of initiatives.

2/3 in 2010.

OC Progressive is Gus Ayer, former Fountain Valley Council member.  

Sacramento County is the epicenter of overlaps (0.00 / 0)
We have here AD-5, AD-10, and AD-15 overlapping with CA-03.

Offense in two, defense in the other two. All very important races, being taken very seriously by OFA, by the CDP , by the Democratic Party of Sacramento County, and by Speakers Perez and Pelosi.

'Nuff said?

also the epicenter of 2010 redistricting (0.00 / 0)
i would be willing to bet. the area from sac to fresno is one of the only parts of the state where slightly different lines could lead to significantly different partisan outcomes. glad to see the party's paying attention, hope they spend some serious coin building up voter lists and GOTV operations in the valley.
[ Parent ]
Incumbent Safety Zone (0.00 / 0)
When was the last time and AD or SD incumbent lost an election?

Are there any incumbents in any serious danger this time around?

Hopefully (0.00 / 0)
It would be nice if the one in CA-25 is vulnerable, But We'll see.

Buck McKeon(R)

[ Parent ]
The last incumbent who lost an election (0.00 / 0)
was in Assembly District 16 in 2000 with Green in Name Only-turned-independent Audie Bock, the final result of the crazy musical chairs from 1998-1999 that began with Ron Dellums' resignation.

The last time an incumbent of a major party lost was also in 2000, in Senate District 7, when Richard Rainey (R) lost to Tom Torlakson (D).

My blog


Twitter

[ Parent ]
Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 - May 2010 Edition | 7 comments
Calitics in the Media
Archives & Bookings
The Calitics Radio Show
Calitics Premium Ads


Support Calitics:

Get discounted bestsellers at Barnes & Noble.com!

Advertisers


-->
California Friends
Shared Communities
Resources
California News
Progressive Organizations
The Big BlogRoll

Referrals
Technorati
Google Blogsearch

Daily Email Summary
Powered by: SoapBlox