| First, let me say this: I am a big fan of primary challenges. But to make it really get past the statement phase, you really have to catch lightning in a bottle. Of course, Republicans are doing it all over the place these days, but that's not the case for Democrats.
So, with that I give you news from the Harman - Winograd primary challenge. According to a new poll for the Harman campaign, she is up by 41 points, 58-17. Now, much of this is about name ID, where Harman is known by the community, and Winograd basically isn't. Harman's favorable/unfavorable ratio is at 64/18, while Winograd's is at 20/6.
Now, the caveats: this poll is a fairly small sample, so the margin of error is almost +/- 5%. But with the lead being so large, that shouldn't matter all that much. What these numbers are telling me is that Harman is going to win the primary on the strength of her name ID. With only a few weeks to go before the election, Winograd is left playing the statement role.
Back in 2006, she garnered about 38%, and she might just reach that number. But, for now, it looks like Harman has herself in a position for a comfortable win come June 8. |
