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Tulchin Poll: Newsom With 21 Point Lead Over Hahn

by: Robert Cruickshank

Tue May 11, 2010 at 11:17:19 AM PDT


Garry South strikes again:

According to a recent California statewide survey, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom is the clear front-runner in the Democratic primary election for Lieutenant Governor. Newsom holds a 21-point lead over Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn in the initial vote, is much better known and has much higher favorability ratings, and performs strongly with Democratic primary voters across the state. With only one in four voters currently undecided, Newsom is extremely well positioned to win the Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor in June.

The raw numbers are Newsom 47, Hahn 26, Undecided 27. Significantly, the crosstabs show Newsom has a statewide lead, including a tie in Southern California and a huge lead in San Diego. Hahn has a 43-32 lead in Los Angeles County, which is to be expected given her and her family's deep roots there, but it's clearly not enough of a lead to overcome Newsom's strong showing across the rest of California, including a nearly 50 point lead for Newsom in the Bay Area.

Much of this appears to be Newsom's higher name ID. And that in turn should cause people - especially Janice Hahn - to question Garry South's negative campaign strategy. By attacking Newsom, Hahn is actually keeping his name ID high while doing little to nothing to improve her own name ID. That is helping preserve Newsom's lead across the state.

Looks like Garry South's record of failure will continue to be unblemished by success. Which is unfortunate, because Janice Hahn is a great person who could have made a compelling candidate. Instead she took Garry South's flawed advice, went negative, and missed her chance to define herself in the eyes of the Democratic electorate.

There's still a month left, time enough for her to drop Garry South and start running a real campaign that emphasizes her positives and why she should be Lieutenant Governor. Unless that happens, Newsom is almost certainly going to win the nomination.

Robert Cruickshank :: Tulchin Poll: Newsom With 21 Point Lead Over Hahn
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Watch out (0.00 / 0)
Garry get's nasty mean when he's behind (which is usually the case).  Oh, and Councilwoman Hahn, you'd better hope you never run against one of Garry's clients, otherwise you might be reading in the newspapers about conversations with him that you thought were private.  Guess that deal with the Devil didn't work out so well for you, eh?  

Poll (0.00 / 0)
Spoken like a true college professor who overlooks the one obvious point in the poll which is that Newsome is destroying Hahn in the bay area where she hasn't campaigned yet and where he has huge unfavorable ratings.  Do you really think Democrats are going to put on their statewide ticket a guy who slept with his best friends wife?  That hurts everyone, no pun intended.

Besides (0.00 / 0)
Janice Hahn is more known than Newsom down here in Southern California, Heck We remember Her father too(Kenneth Hahn), Southern California I think has more population than Northern California, Hopefully It's enough to get past the field and Newsom(I have My sample ballot, She's on there). We Need Janice, I trust Her, If She's half as good as Her father was, Then She will do nicely.

[ Parent ]
Ballots are out (0.00 / 0)
So, if she's going to campaign in the bay area and make a dent in those numbers, the clock is ticking. Without a massive warchest, it's hard to get attention for down ballot races.  Name ID generally carries the day in LG races, so turnout differential b/w NorCal/SoCal will be key.

I think?

[ Parent ]
No pun accomplished (0.00 / 0)
Or was it lost in your brilliant logic (Newsom is most popular where his unfavorables are the highest)?

Much like the stoned student asleep in the back of the room, it seems you missed a key part of the professor's point.  This is a statewide poll.  So any relative strength of Newsom in the Bay Area and Hahn in the LA area is reflected in the results.  You do know what statewide means, no?


[ Parent ]
Hahn/Newsome (0.00 / 0)
Hahn is not really that well known in Los Angeles, her brother and father were and she has to make her own reputation.  Newsome on the other hand is very well known in the San Francisco Bay Area, but his positive and negative numbers are almost even among Democrats.

A lot of people who are voting for Newsome are doing so to get him out of the Mayor's office and I think it is questionable that they stick with him if they receive a good argument for an alternative and as Hahn and her supporters are just now making their pitch, my opinion is that Hahn can add to her total a lot more easily than Newsome can.


[ Parent ]
Brilliant Strategy (0.00 / 0)
Start your campaign after PAVs have their ballots running against a guy everyone knows.  And the affair?  Grow up, it happens.  

BTW, how is she going to make her pitch with less than $300k in the bank?  No one knows her, she has no money to change that and she's run a truly shitty campaign.  

Between Garry South and Michael Trujio, both who should be sued for malpractice, and Hahn's lack of gray matter on specific policy matters this race is over.


[ Parent ]
As I said in the post (0.00 / 0)
Newsom has a nearly 50-point lead in the Bay Area. Hahn has a much smaller lead, around 10 points, in LA County. Outside LA County Newsom has the lead.

Now, that could change, but also as I said in the post, that would require Hahn to shift tactics away from attacking Newsom and toward building her own name ID. That is unlikely to happen as long as Garry South is involved in the campaign, and even if the shift were to occur, with less than 4 weeks remaining it might be too late.

One other thing I didn't mention is that Newsom also has a big lead in fundraising and organizational endorsements, which helps in a race like this.

So Newsom is in the driver's seat and Hahn is in deep trouble.

Here endeth the lesson.

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave


[ Parent ]
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