Confirming what many of us have expected, the Daily Kos/Research 2000 Poll of the California Senate and gubernatorial races shows that both races lean Democratic, but will be dogfights between now and November (numbers in parentheses are from DKos/R2K August 2009 poll of California):
Republican primary
Meg Whitman (R) 52 (24)
Steve Poizner (R) 19 (9)
(Tom Campbell, then in the governor's race, got 19 percent in August 2009 poll)
General election
Meg Whitman (R) 41 (36)
Jerry Brown (D) 45 (42)
Steve Poizner (R) 33 (34)
Jerry Brown (D) 48 (43)
Favorable/Unfavorable
Brown (D) 52/40 (48/37)
Whitman (R) 51/35 (41/30)
Poizner (R) 37/40 (35/27)
No real surprises here. Whitman's TV barrage has increased her numbers - but then again so has Jerry Brown, who sees a 3 point boost even though he hasn't lifted a finger to campaign. Before we assume that validates his campaign strategy, Markos Moulitsas has some important thoughts on the crosstabs:
The biggest undecided block are African Americans, who break 66-6 for Brown, but with 28 percent undecided. Getting them out to vote will be key for Brown. Same with Latinos, who give Brown a 60-27 edge, with 13 percent undecided.
Brown may be 255 years old (give or take a decade), but voters over 60 go for Whitman 45-38. The Millennials remain the strongest Democratic age group -- 49-37 for Brown. They are also the least likely to vote. Thus Brown's early edge is one built on a shaky foundation -- strong support from the demographics least likely to turn out and vote. Whitman has been running a gaffe prone campaign thus far. If she gets her act together, this could be a real dogfight.
This proves what I said back in January in my How Jerry Brown Can Win post - he needs to prioritize outreach to Millennial voters, Latinos and African-Americans. He cannot win this election without them.
As to the US Senate race:
Republican primary
Tom Campbell (R) 33
Carly Fiorina (R) 24
Chuck DeVore (R) 7
General election
Barbara Boxer (D) 47
Tom Campbell (R) 43
Barbara Boxer (D) 49 (52)
Carly Fiorina (R) 40 (31)
Barbara Boxer (D) 49 (53)
Chuck DeVore (R) 39 (29)
Favorable/Unfavorable
Boxer (D) 50/45 (49/43)
Campbell (R) 46/37 (38/29)
Fiorina (R) 35/43 (22/29)
DeVore (R) 34/42 (21/27)
36% are undecided in the GOP primary, so it's anyone's guess how that will turn out. Even Chuck DeVore has some hope, even though it's fading every day he fails to get traction or money. Tom Campbell does seem to have the edge with his better favorables, which is probably why both Fiorina and DeVore have spent most of their time attacking Campbell.
The poll also suggests Campbell is the only one of the three GOP candidates who can give Boxer a real battle. Since Republicans cannot win a majority in the US Senate without beating Boxer, that is even more reason why Democrats here have to work our asses off to hold that firewall and ensure Barbara Boxer is re-elected.
Finally, one should note that both Brown's and Boxer's leads have been generally stable. They aren't losing support, and may have bottomed out (Boxer in particular, as she's been hurt by the overall weakness of the US Senate). As both begin to roll out their campaigns, they'll be in good position to win what will be a hard-fought and close election. |
