| PPIC has Arnold's lead swelling to 17 (48-31) from 13 (45-32). Only word I've seen on this is from Dan Weintraub:
Among likely voters, Schwarzenegger is up by 48-31.
Angelides is leading among Democrats by 57-21.
Schwarzenegger is up among Republicans, 82-4.
Among independents, it's Schwarzenegger by 42-27.
Among men: 54-27.
Among women: 41-24.
I'm still a little uncomfortable with PPIC's likely voter model, but if the lead grows much larger it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. People won't vote if they don't think it's a close race. However, we need to make sure we bring a huge GOTV effort. Down-ticket races will be depending on the fact that we get decent Dem participation. And who knows, with a big turnout, perhaps all those "likely voter" models will be proven wrong. More information on this when I get it... |
