CA-03: Time To Take Another Look at This Race

Rothenberg and Cook Ratings (5.00 / 1)

Let me add that Stu Rothenberg, whom I respect but IMO rates races a bit toward the Republicans, rates this seat (and CA-44) and "lean R".  He only rates six Republican seats more at risk in the country.  http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

The Cook Political Report also rates it (and CA-44) as "lean R."  Cook only rates five Republican held seats as more likely to go Democratic (although he rates more seats as lean-R than Rothenberg).  http://www.cookpolitical.com/c...

If we want to be on offense, these two seats need to be big California targets for us.  

---

by: hilltopper @ Wed Oct 14, 2009 at 21:44:17 PM UTC

I met that guy (0.00 / 0)

I met Dr. Bera a few months ago while in Sacramento and he's a very nice guy, very smart and someone I think voters connect with easily. Lungren is a transplant and his time has past.

--
www.gregdewar.com

---

by: gregdewar.com @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 18:07:41 PM UTC

Wasteful primary (0.00 / 0)

I think Brian's comment is worth dwelling on:

"Unless the winning candidate drains his finances in the primary, Lungren will face a tough race in 2010."

But - as of now, we are headed for a primary where the winning candidate will have drained his finances in the primary.

It is always difficult to defeat an incumbent. And while 2010 may not be as bad a year for Democrats as some pundits are speculating, I think its fair to assume the political environment wont be as favorable to Dems as it was in 2006 and 2008.

I say this to point out that we can win in CD 3 - but we will need a lot of things to go right and minimize mistakes and missed opportunities. Blowing half a million to a million dollars in a Democrat v. Democrat fight when every cent of that will be needed for the real fight against Lungren seems like a potential tragedy.

   

---

by: petercharles @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 03:54:04 AM UTC

Who are you going to tell to stand down? (5.00 / 1)

And what's the consolation prize?

I think?

---

by: Brian Leubitz @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 06:05:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

An observation, not a plan (0.00 / 0)

Ami Bera and Bill Slaton are both going to make decisions based on their own self-interest, and from a self-interest point of view there's probably little to no reason to step aside.

My comments are merely an observation...

---

by: petercharles @ Sat Oct 17, 2009 at 01:04:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah wasteful primaries suck! (0.00 / 0)

Hell we still have Richard Pombo as the Congressman in CA-11 because of that wasteful primary!

Yep primaries are a terrible thing!  

---

by: ajsuited @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 05:41:54 AM UTC

2006 actually proves my point (0.00 / 0)

Your comparison of the 2006 CD-11 situation with the 2010 CD-3 situation leaves out a big point.  There was a wasteful, resource-draining primary: on the Republican side.

Pombo had to spend over half a million dollars and several months of focusing a message on dealing with McCloskey in the primary.

In effect, Pombo and McNerney came out of the primary on equal ground - BOTH had to spend down resources and spend time the first six months of 2006 focusing on primary voters.

That's an entirely different dynamic than CD-3 in 2010, where one side (Lungren) will be able to conserve financial resources and spend time/message on general election swing voters while the other side (Teh Dem candidate) emereges from the primary with $0 and having spent all of the first part of 2010 communicating mostly with Dem primary voters.    

Or look at the Governors race in 2006. Arnold entered 2006 in a weakened position, but could spend the first half of the year moving to the center and conserving resources. Phil came out of the primary with no cash reserves and Arnold jumped on him with a blitz of advertising in the summer while Phil did not have the resources to respond. What was an even matchup on Memorial Day turned into a 15 point Arnold advantage by Labor Day - because of the resource advantage he was bale to press to full effect in June, July and August.

Can a Dem win in CD-3 after a competitive primary? Yes.
But the odds of taking CD-3 would be much better if a Democratic candidate could conserve financial resources and not be in a vulnerable position in the summer while trying replenish resources - and could spend the first six months of 2010 reaching out to Republican and DTS voters (who will be nedded to win in CD-3) rather than being forced by neccessity to focus almost exclusively on Dem Primary voters.

 

---

by: petercharles @ Sat Oct 17, 2009 at 00:01:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Primaries are benefical (0.00 / 0)

The '06 primary forced McNerney to get his act in gear and run a real campaign. He came out of that primary focused with a machine ready to rip. That wouldn't have been possible without a competitive primary.

Pombo spent about 4.6 MILLION in 2006, so 1/9th was spent in the primary - nothing. It was great that he was forced to spend money and Pete helped by getting Bay Area mod GOPers to defect to McNerney in the general.  

But Pombo and McNerney coming out of the primary on equal ground? what a joke.

McNerney had about 25K in the kitty compared to Pombo's ONE MILLION to start the general election. The DCCC left him for dead - while the NRCC was just gearing up. Yeah that's equal footing!

And as for Angelides he was dead on day one - ran a terrible campaign and got what he had coming - he needed help, but had burned so many bridges people told him to take a hike. Phil was so desperate that in the closing days he tried to hijack a McNerney event with the Big Dog (Clinton).

As for CA-3 they aren't advertising in a vacuum - neither of the Dem candidates has ever held office. There will be a governor's race buying up TV time, plus other down ballot races doing the same. If either candidate ran unopposed in the primary and then ran an ABC campaign in the general and started up 8-10 weeks out on TV, they might as well put all that money in the parking lot and set it on fire because running against someone that's held elected office as long as Lungren has you have to start making the case early as to why voters should fire the incumbent - it will take longer than 2 months. The primary will help get that message out.

Lungren will be forced to spend funds in the primary - if not his consultant should be fired for malpractice. He can't lets charges go unanswered. Lungren will run positive, feel good spots in primary ~ around 10-12 days out I would guess.
 

---

by: ajsuited @ Sat Oct 17, 2009 at 03:09:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe not ideal from a purely fiscal perspective... (0.00 / 0)

But if handled properly, you are still getting your message out to lots of voters and vetting out your viability. It's not like voters suddenly forget who you are as soon as the primary is over. A lot of great work can be done to set up the general.

---

by: Dan @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 20:48:21 PM UTC